Are the DUP on the point of abandoning the constitutional analysis of the likely Brexit deal in favour of an economic one?
Their terms are rumoured to be “billions, not millions” as a face saver.
Not that the economic terms will be easy to reach. Remember that GB-NI trade is massively greater than cross border. How will prices in NI be protected if EU tariffs are higher than British ones? Will corporation tax finally match the Republic’ s 12.5%? Goodness knows what happens to VAT from which the UK may want to diverge. Would the putative Assembly acquire powers over VAT when they baulk at raising the domestic rates? And we’re talking about a dysfunctional institution here which is unlikely to respond to Foster’s latest plea.
? It all seems very complicated and expensive to run. The cost of any painfully customised settlement should be factored into the deal on UK budgetary contributions.
The EU are demanding assurances that NI will not become a Singapore on the Lagan/Foyle/ Carlingford Lough for the benefit of US and Chinese businesses. But how do they prevent GB businesses from at least brass plating in NI if it means easier access to the single market?
I only ask.
On consent, if the DUP sign off de facto harmonising with EU customs in recognisable form, it will surely be harder to reverse it by cross community consent if the Assembly comes back. What would have to happen for the DUP to change their minds? But it follows that if the DUP refuse consent now or during a technical extension, it will be equally harder to win consent later.
How do the DUP meet the immediate challenge?
Defaulting to the negative is the natural reflex but they will then struggle with the prospect of total isolation if the ERG backs Boris.
Labour are completely hopeless, a deadly mixture of control freaks and losers. We’re told Corbyn’s constituency organisers have been concentrating more on tightening Momentum’s grip than on preparing for an election many Labour MPs are now resisting. So being unable to frame a demand for a second referendum on clear alternatives and unready to fight a snap election Labour are lost. Johnson needn’t even have bothered to try to stifle them by a long prorogation after all. He could have let them chunter on harmlessly for a few extra days and prevented the huge diversionary legal challenge to the (as it’s turning out) final feeble will of Parliament.
While Dublin look like claiming a convincing victory, they should then stay their hand if it’s actually delivered courtesy of Leave Labour MPs and with or without the DUP.
Going on to argue for the equivalent of the customs deal for Irish citizen’s rights in NI is a campaign too far. It would force British citizens from NI to claim rights in GB which UK and Irish NI citizens equally enjoy as their birthright. Time to interpret the GFA as British, Irish AND both?
Unionists can only be pushed so far. It would be better to skirt round this battle field just now. And a row with the likes of Priti Patel isn’t worth the candle.
But of course, the bits may yet not come together. The Tory right may stick with the DUP after all. Leave Labour may be impressed by the latest evidence (though qualified) from the objective think tank UK in a Changing Europe of any deal’s negative impact on the economy, even though this seems not to have impacted much on Leave public opinion.
But where else do they have as a destination?
Do you really believe Brexit can be revoked?
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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