Unionist concerns and fears of a united Ireland: where are the women?

Another day, another report into a united Ireland. This time Senator Mark Daly has published his findings on, ‘Unionist Concerns and fears of a United Ireland.’ The report is based on a recommendation given to the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. Daly’s research contains writings and submissions from unionist political figures such as Mike Nesbitt, Kyle Paisley and Trevor Ringland. Dr James Wilson, at the request of Senator Daly, also conducted focus groups with …

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We’re in crisis now. Armageddon on Brexit and the Union may take a little longer

So the Stormont talks are in limbo. Why should they be different?  Everything else is, including the future of the Union. The reputation of failed prime ministers can rise after they retire defeated and the problems continue to confound their successors.  Even Theresa May is starting to look just a bit better.  Straight after he lost two elections in quick succession in 1974 ,Ted Heath’s reputation  as a statesman seemed secure when his  historic achievement of  EEC entry  that would …

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Both sides are now contemplating a physical border. What will stop it?

The looming prospect of No Deal is producing all sorts of ferment, with the focus on  the clashing red lines over the Border.  This was always the case but is now made more acute by trying to extract meaning from Boris Johnson’s smokescreen of bumbling towards victory in the Tory leadership election. Will anything he says bear the force of unbreakable promises to his electorate? The optimistic answer is probably very few, but by its nature it can’t be relied …

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Out of left field. . Boris’s backers in the media are talking up a new deal from Brussels – if he starts talking sense as PM and can deliver the Commons

Jean Claude Juncker

Bruno Waterfield of the Times sees potentially more movement from the EU than the  ultra Europhiles seem to think possible – provided EU 27 are convinced  Johnson can sell an amended deal to the Commons

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Paul Bew recycles his backstop plan to fill the Tories’ comprehension gap. “Stop punching below your weight.”

So have we got any closer to a cunning plan for getting rid of the backstop? In last night’s leader candidates’ debate and in this morning’s hustings before the Westminster lobby, plenty of macho but no real meat. Michael Gove says there is no candidate in the race who understands the politics of Ireland better than he does – he really does . He says he would look for other ways of avoiding the backstop.  How well did he do? …

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No Deal would mean ” a blockade” of Northern Ireland. Is anybody listening? Does anybody care?

David Sterling, head of the Northern Ireland civil service Tony Connelly RTE’s ace Europe editor, has pulled together in its full awfulness the impact of No Deal on the Northern Ireland economy, amounting  “to a full blockade.”  Clearly well briefed by officials in Belfast, Dublin and Brussels, the message isn’t getting through in London where it matters most at the moment. Just consider this for a wee opener…. When the original exit date of 29 March approached, officials fretted that …

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It’s a big ask, but soft Brexiteers are now asking Ireland to give ground on the backstop

Vernon Bogdanor is one of Britain’s leading constitutional experts. Although he voted to Remain, his current efforts are concentrating on finding orderly constitutional means for breaking the Brexit deadlock.   Vernon is no hard Brexiteer sweeping aside Ireland’s case. He is utterly sympathetic to Ireland’s interests. Today he calls the idea of shutting Parliament down for three months to  prevent MPs blocking a No Deal withdrawal on 31 October “ an outrage. The ensuing demonstrations would make the People’s Vote march …

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“Nixon goes to China” is the right example to follow for Brexit. The Tories may know it already

Nixon goes to China Talking of the wisdom of US presidents… rivalling Trump’s lunatic assumption that our border problem is like his Mexican wall, the conservative right persists in believing that the future of the UK lies in a free trade agreement under WTO rules reached by the end of October. Steve Baker, the deputy chair of the ERG  has produced a plan called A Clean Managed Brexit which relies on negotiating a free trade agreement  “but with practical contingency …

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Tory leadership candidates are still playing party games over Brexit and the border

Tory leadership contenders are still tying themselves in knots over Deal or No Deal and Brexit and the border. The latest is Home Secretary Sajid Javid on the Marr show.  Sucking up to the Brexit militants of the party rank and file he would Leave on October 31 – no question –  except  – “I’m not a dictator I believe in parliamentary democracy” (phew what a relief !) .i.e. the Commons would stop him if he tried, but he doesn’t …

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Brexit reality has yet to dawn with the Conservatives and Labour. It will get worse before it gets better

As a result of their severe beating in the European election that was itself the product of their internal disarray, the two parties of UK government are evolving into the Conservatives as the party of Leave and Labour the party of Remain. Newly conventional wisdom says the middling choices are disappearing between the main parties and within them.  But the starkness of the choices – if that’s what they prove to be –  is making them no easier to accept. …

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Border poll ferment hits a high spot in the Euros exit poll

The Red C exit poll records an astounding result on Irish Unity – so amazing that it’s presented as tucked in after another positive result on the Irish language, as if they don’t quite  believe it. Newton tweets Support for a united Ireland rises as support for Sinn Fein falls. Perhaps the southern electorate is more sophisticated on this point than it gets credit for.   What’s happening to them down there, so drunk with euphoria about what a terrific …

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Lyra McKee’s partner Sara Canning’s blunt messages for her killers and the government

The mural of Lyra McKee, unveiled in Belfast on Tuesday From the Guardian report of Sara Canning’s interview on Channel 4 News   “If the politicians won’t legislate for equal marriage at Stormont, then the prime minister should do it at Westminster. That’s what I told Theresa May at Lyra’s funeral. I wanted her to know that Lyra and I had a right to be treated as equal citizens in our own country. Surely that’s not too much to ask? She …

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Brexit is hard enough to live through without the Irish going bananas about the end of Britain

Joan Redmond is a high achieving young Irish historian who took a master’s in Cambridge and now teaches in King’s College London. She also tells us she’s married to an Italian. In the Irish Times she gives an account of how Brexit is making her feel insecure. While Irish history has always had a presence in Cambridge, it is something of a declining force – for the worse, as we have seen with the current standard of debate and knowledge …

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The revival of dynamic British- Irish solidarity is essential for rescuing the politics of Northern Ireland

Perhaps the murder of a model for her generation will produce a paradigm shift in politics. Perhaps they’ll seize the emotion of the moment and strike a deal.   Had it not been for Lyra’s murder, the review of the GFA institutions would have been perfunctory.  Active British government involvement in the government of Northern Ireland had virtually ceased.  British- Irish relations were in cold storage over Brexit.  Vote harvesting is the season’s preoccupation as far as the eye can see, …

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The Unity Genie is Out of the Bottle: What do Unionism and Southern Parties do Next?

As we fast approach the local council elections, it’s important to assess what the results might tell us about the future of Stormont and power-sharing as a whole. Will the council elections show a growth in the Nationalist vote? And/or will we finally see a breakthrough in middle ground voters, against the vacuum and groundhog day of our local politics? I do not need to inform all where we’re at and why. We all have slightly different takes on this, …

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Appeals for calm come from heavyweights on opposite sides of the Brexit debate, but to reach opposite conclusions..

In a joint article in the Observer, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern ask Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to sink their other differences and follow the example of opposite sides in the Northern Ireland peace process. They should “encourage calm amid the chaos”, agree an EU withdrawal deal and submit the results to a confirmatory referendum. “….we feel duty-bound, a generation on, to stress to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn the ongoing significance of the Good Friday agreement, to add …

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Should the Irish ambassador claim to speak for Ireland over “anti-Irish” comment?

Was it appropriate for  Adrian O’Neill the Irish ambassador to Great Britain ( sic) to complain publicly about an article in the Spectator at all, and specifically because he  thought it was “anti-Irish?” I can’t reproduce it  but article complained of by Robert Hardiman, made an ironic point about the Republic’s decision to join the Francophone commonwealth at this time of shifting relationships, rather than what used to be called the British Commonwealth. ( No please don’t  get  diverted to …

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The common sense solution to the Brexit crisis comes from business, not politics

 This suggested solution to  the Brexit crisis is offered by Willie McCarter,  for many years  one of  our leading  business people, with long experience of north-south and international manufacturing and trade, becoming CEO of Fruit of the Loom’s operations based in the north west, 1987-97. He was also a leading fund raiser in the US for community and heritage projects to promote development and reconciliation here as chairman of the International Fund for Ireland, 1993-2005.    As the threat of …

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Don’t despair of Westminster. This is what open debate looks like. It’s a big week for Varadkar too

Next week under pressure of a deadline less than a fortnight hence, it may get worse before it gets better. What we’re seeing in the Commons would be perfectly rational if it weren’t happening so late. A minority government formed by a split party has lost control and attempts are being made to form an ad hoc majority in Parliament over the burning issue of the day.  It’s a novel situation certainly, but talk of a disintegrating system, much less …

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After May’s latest defeat, the DUP are feeling isolated over the border. Is Angela Merkel riding to the rescue?

Theresa May’s  hopes to bring her Brexit deal back to parliament again next week after it was rejected for a third time by MPs – and appears poised to trigger a general election if parliament fails to agree a way forward. Although decisive  the reduced margin has put the alliance between the ERG and the DUP under great strain. As the BBC’s Laura Kuennsberg has tweeted: “A brief marriage ends. DUP learning today that many in ERG = Brexiteers first …

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