The common sense solution to the Brexit crisis comes from business, not politics

 This suggested solution to  the Brexit crisis is offered by Willie McCarter,  for many years  one of  our leading  business people, with long experience of north-south and international manufacturing and trade, becoming CEO of Fruit of the Loom’s operations based in the north west, 1987-97. He was also a leading fund raiser in the US for community and heritage projects to promote development and reconciliation here as chairman of the International Fund for Ireland, 1993-2005.   

As the threat of a no- deal crash-out from the EU to the lives of ordinary people in the UK and Ireland becomes more and more real might I offer a suggested short term and long term possible solution?

1. The U.K. Government as is their legal right under EU law should immediately revoke article 50 and rejoin the EU for a period of two years.
2. During these two years by agreement with the EU both the EU and U.K. should immediately proceed to negotiate the long term agreement. Both the EU and UK have stated in good faith that they believe the long term agreement will solve the Irish border problem.
3. During the two year period of negotiation the Withdrawal Agreement and the Backstop should by agreement be “ parked “.
4. At the end of two years assuming that a mutually satisfactory long term agreement has been reached which solves the border problem the U.K. would trigger Article 50 again and leave the EU in an orderly manner.
5. If no agreement has been reached the U.K. can still trigger article 50 and negotiations regarding withdrawal can begin again. In the meantime consideration as to what the long term agreement between the EU and the UK might include the following :

• In order to facilitate the minimum upset to ordinary people in the EU and U.K. and further afield the EU might consider creating a “ special “ customs union and single market extension for the U.K. This “ special “ customs union and single market extension for the UK would replicate in total the existing terms and conditions which the U.K. enjoys as a full member of the EU.

 

• . In return for membership of the “ special “ customs union and single market extension the U.K. would pay an annual fee to the EU of 10 billion euro on a permanent basis. This sum is around the same net amount which the EU receives from the UK and would be a welcome contribution to the EU on a continuing basis. It should be borne in mind that the head of HMRC has estimated that the cost to the U.K. on an annual basis of at least one of the proposed methods of exit from the EU is 17/20 billion sterling so an annual bill of 10 billion euro would seem good value for money.

 

• . As part of the long term agreement between the EU and U.K. by agreement the EU and the UK. might set up a joint EU UK. court to adjudicate all disputes in relation to the “ special “ customs union and single market extension. This new court might be composed of judges 50 per cent from the EU and 50 per cent from the UK.

 

• . Since the new customs union and single market extension between the UK. and EU is “ special “ the UK. might be given the right to seek new trade deals on a global basis. However one condition of the new agreement would be that while the UK. would be free to negotiate new or improved trade deals these could not operate until the EU was made part of each new deal. It should be noted in this context that if the agreement between President Trump and President Juncker made last summer comes to fruition the EU including the UK. would be part of an EU US free trade deal encompassing 40 trillion US dollars out of an estimated 87 trillion of world nominal GNP. On top of that the EU has trade agreements with at least another 15 trillion of world GNP( Japan, Canada , Mexico Turkey). When consideration is given to China (14 trillion ) India ( 3 trillion ) and Russia ( 3 trillion ) this puts the possibilities of additional global trade deals for the UK into perspective.

 

• As part of a “ special” customs union and single market with the EU the U.K. would have to accept free movement of labour as it does at present. Many people in the U.K. know that free movement is necessary for a growing developed economy like the U.K. However many people in the U.K. and in other countries are worried that their local areas could be overwhelmed by free movement of labour. In order to mitigate the effects of surges of new people coming into local areas it may be possible under the new long term agreement that the U.K. Government could approach the new EU UK court with evidence of a population surge in a local area and for a limited time be granted authority to control the movement of people within local areas.

 

• Since the UK. would be paying 10 billion euro to the EU on an annual basis under the new agreement it may be possible for the UK to have a “ say “ in the ongoing development of the EU as an associate member. Perhaps something like the above might be considered as a way forward in the present difficult impasse. In so doing it would solve the Irish border problems.