So the Stormont talks are in limbo. Why should they be different? Everything else is, including the future of the Union. The reputation of failed prime ministers can rise after they retire defeated and the problems continue to confound their successors. Even Theresa May is starting to look just a bit better. Straight after he lost two elections in quick succession in 1974 ,Ted Heath’s reputation as a statesman seemed secure when his historic achievement of EEC entry that would stand the test of time was confirmed in the 1975 referendum . So nothing is forever….
In this respect Theresa May has gone ahead of herself. Although three times rejected the withdrawal agreement doesn’t look so bad after all. I predict it’ll look better and better as 31 October looms. Not called the WA of course and not without a tweak or two looking ahead to “alternative arrangements” that will make the backstop even fuzzier.
But if not, what?
Her last minute warning that No Deal could destroy the Union is echoed by a chorus of Leavers and Remainers alike but without a clue what to do about it. It would be the greatest of ironies amid the political chaos, if May’s last minute announcement of a ” review “of the powers of devolution and the centre – no doubt looking forward to more powers for the SNP to hang themselves with – were to lead to Westminster taking powers to cut the Gordian knots in NI.
Critics of Jeremy Hunt and in particular Boris Johnson on their drop by on the Culloden hotel were loud in their accusations of hypocrisy and indifference over the fate of the Union and for displaying utter and complete ignorance about the impact of a crash out on both parts of Ireland. As well they might. Cold comfort can be gained in accepting this is no exception to the general run of things. The Tory candidates have eyes only for a constituency who commit the ultimate heresy by giving Brexit priority over the Union. And we can be sure that virtually none of them were among the handful of NI Conservative hosts to the Tory hustings. Once the leadership is settled, the winner moves to a completely different campaign. It will be waged – still – in the House of Commons, mocking the rallying cry of “taking back control,” representing a country – if it can still be so described – split not neatly into Leave and Remain segments but large fragments divided by region and class that have contradictory or downright incompatible elements embedded within them. This would be a formidable challenge for the most accomplished leader and the party with the most compelling vision imaginable. Not these tawdry assemblages.
So the critical chorus is right. It must dawn on Johnson and his party some time that an approach which is so spectacularly out of kilter with any potential wider constituency has got to have something wrong with it. As might Varadkar. Something will change after 24 July though God only knows what (literally – pre-supposing her/his omniscience or existence).
The general political chaos over Brexit will take time to work out although no doubt a crash out could force the pace. It’s not quite panic stations for the Union yet. Supporters of referendums in Scotland and Ireland need a stable platform to stand on even if it’s made of disaster. As the pro Union Scottish Correspondent of Alan Cochrane of the Sunday Telegraph observes:
Most nationalists believed that Brexit would make independence a certainty given that Scottish voters had voted by a large margin to remain in the EU. However, it hasn’t worked out like that. Support for independence has indeed increased but in the latest opinion polls it is still registering at below 50 per cent, whilst Ms Sturgeon and other SNP strategists have insisted that they wouldn’t prepare for another referendum until polls showed independence support running at 60 per cent.
Campaigners for a border poll will hang back until they see the form a future border will take – the harder the better and the greater the disruption – and to await the response of the Dail as a whole.
In the meantime, Northern Ireland knows very well what deadlines are like. Emergency legislation to defer an Assembly election yet again will be moved this week. This will present one of the last opportunities to challenge the shaky Tory control over the agenda in the small window between now and September, with Parliament rising on July 25, the day after Johnson is expected to become PM.
The really bold move would be to move an amendment to block No Deal. But the NI Bill might be too small a vehicle to attract support for such a massive challenge. It would certainly be premature for the no Deal blockers who are still members of the cabinet and who may shortly lead the resistance to Johnsonian No Deal fundamentalism. Equal marriage supporters may try to tag on an amendment in favour of equal marriage as they tried and failed with abortion last time. They will again win cross party sympathy but not the desired result- and least not yet.
On the government side the prevailing confusion has reached new heights in a surprising quarter. Amazingly the Minister for Women has been talking as if she’s prepared to sacrifice the DUP’s confidence and supply deal on the altar of abortion reform. Does she know what she’s saying or is this another case of the bogey under their nose they can see only when they sneeze?
Wearing her other hat as Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt sings the DUP’s song over supporting a qualified amnesty for former soldiers, but here she is threatening legislation to introduce abortion reform for Northern Ireland over the heads of the deadlocked Assembly. Her cue would come if the High Court in Belfast applies the recent Supreme Court judgment to an appellant who qualifies to bring it before the court . (Incidentally Jeremy Hunt whom Mordaunt backs as leader would be against it). Mordaunt told the Commons:
The reason why this hasn’t been dealt with to date is because this is a devolved matter and we take devolution seriously. But it has been shown, and we will soon see what the court’s ruling is on this, that what has been happening is not compatible with an individual’s human rights… If we have this ruling by the court I think government will act. Certainly that has been the indication from the Northern Ireland office. But if government did not, parliament would, and clearly all members of parliament, including prime ministers, would have a free vote on that.”
This raises other intriguing questions.
If Westminster really was prepared to legislate for abortion and equal marriage why not for an Irish Language Act as foreshadowed in the St Andrews Agreement? The impact on the Stormont talks would be – shall we say – interesting.
While it looks as if social reform won’t go away, further legal process and the general political chaos including a likely general election will push it down the agenda.
If however the DUP were tamely to accept equal marriage and abortion reform at the hands of Westminster it would render toothless any threat to whip the carpet from under Johnson short of wholesale sell out. And why worry unduly about deadlock among the local parties over dealing with the past? The way would be open for Westminster to resolve a burning issue where responsibility in any case mainly resides. But we may be getting too far ahead of ourselves.
The fundamental counter to Westminster action of this kind is that it runs directly counter to the principles and practice of UK devolution. If there was a direct Scottish equivalent superseding Holyrood directly, it would guarantee IndyRef 2 however much Westminster would try to assert its right ( non- existent for a border poll , remember) – to block it. But over Northern Ireland why in the end would a fragile Tory government take any risks with its majority, even if a little activism for a change could work wonders for the Union’s reputation back home? Unless it had the tacit consent of the DUP? It stretches hope too far.
On the big picture Johnson will have a stalling tactic ready for 31 October, either to crash out or more likely to declare victory over a tweaked withdrawal agreement and defy his party critics and the DUP to oust him and install Jeremy Corbyn. The addition of Scottish Conservative MPs to 30 or so English MPs led by the outgoing chancellor to block No Deal would present Johnson with near- insuperable problems if he remains implacable on 31 October The scenarios from Adam Boulton in the Sunday Times are persuasive
Jeremy Corbyn could disrupt the orderly handover of power, possibly turning Johnson into a mayfly premier, lasting barely a day. Labour is committed to tabling a vote of confidence in the new government. If Jeremy Corbyn does it right away on Wednesday July 24, the debate will be the next day, Thursday July 25, when parliament is due to rise for the summer recess.
Convention places no limit on the number of votes of confidence the leader of the opposition can demand. A vote after MPs return in September is a certainty. Such is the volume of business that will have to be transacted, come what may, veteran MPs expect the usual three-week recess for the party conferences to be cancelled, so the Commons can sit straight through to the Brexit deadline on Hallowe’en.
The main argument against a late-July vote of confidence is that Johnson would almost certainly win it. The Conservatives would rally behind the new leader — as, probably, would the DUP. It would be premature for the Tory pro-Europeans, perhaps led by Philip Hammond, to oppose their own government. They will act only if it becomes clear, after renegotiations with the EU, that the new prime minister is bent on leaving at the end of October with no deal in place.
Corbyn may still feel that the turmoil brought on by a token effort at no confidence in July is worth it — a protest against the change of national leader without recourse to a general election.
Either way, Johnson is likely to have the chance to assemble a government that will last until the autumn, at least.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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