In agonising over terms for recreating a functioning Stormont, the old chestnuts of an Irish Language Act and the petition of concern could be the easy bits – which is one reason why the DUP and Sinn Fein if they have any sense at all, should grab at a deal. Truth to tell they are still in their comfort zone. Far more difficult issues are looming just a little way down the track. And it’s doubtful if the Assembly parties …
Fairly dramatic conclusions about the future of the Union and stability in Northern Ireland have been produced in the third Brexit Status Report of the Dublin based Institute of European and International Affairs. Rather disappointingly the Report avoids discussing post Brexit strategies for restoring Stormont or if they fail, options such as direct rule, joint authority or an accountability mechanism for the Northern Ireland people on the future of the “frontstop,” assuming it is ratified by Parliament. A border …
Anand Menon the director the UK in a Changing Europe and as near to objectivity as it gets, has been issuing correctives to the Brexit positions of both the UK government and the EU Commission. In separate articles his analyses provide sage advice for both sides after the election. Does it mean a smoother passage for all goods in both directions across the Irish Sea? In the Guardian yesterday, with Catharine Barnard Get Brexit done….” The simple answer is that …
Peering into a crystal ball however cloudy is as irresistible for the curious voter as the compulsive gambler. Favourable predictions for the Conservatives range from an overall majority of over 100 to fewer MPs than May won in 2017 but still the largest party. Serious hopes of a Labour majority are round about nil. They are likely to need the support on some basis of minority parties, the SNP, the Lib Dems and who knows? – even the DUP. Johnson’s …
It reads like a trailer for Boris Johnson’s leaders’ speech on Wednesday. The British “non-papers” have gelled into what is in effect a No Deal plan masquerading as a negotiating position. The BBC, RTE and the Daily Telegraph are all reporting that the UK government will propose checks on either side of the border but away from the border itself. As this in no way acts as a substitute for the backstop it will be rejected by Dublin and the …
Confused? Join the club which I believe includes the principals, the British and Irish governments and the EU. The idea of “non-papers” from the UK government expresses the confusion perfectly. Do they mean what they say or not? Are they the last word in the last ditch or feints in a game ? We last left off on an upward note when Foster met Varadkar. The direction of travel seemed to be towards NI as a special economic zone between …
The most important thing that Arlene Foster has just done is to talk to Leo Varadkar for the first time in ages. This was a meeting that was apparently kept under wraps until it had happened. Only a short time before, the Dublin government were saying they were hoping for a meeting “soon.” This brief encounter opens up the possibility of genuine north-south cooperation to help hammer out an agreement on the border – and perhaps the Assembly – that …
Too much for the DUP, too little for Dublin and the EU but enough to keep going? The direction of travel has seemed clear for some time. These reports bring it out into the open. Johnson has been talking up a deal based on an expansion of the original agri foods proposal. An actual outline has been show to the EU negotiators, but not to take home with them . (Why did they tamely agree to only a sneak preview?) …
Despite Arlene Foster’s public denials, the Times stands by its story that ahead of any return to Stormont ,the DUP would support the idea of the Assembly signing off on a deal to replace the backstop that would involve some ( no doubt de-dramatised) “checks in the Irish Sea” . This is based on the hope that DUP all-Ireland agreement on agri foods is only a stage on a journey rather than the final destination. It would mean the DUP …
Emma DeSouza personal photo The Guardian reports Fundamental questions over the enforceability of the 1998 Good Friday agreement have been raised in a test case over the residency rights of an American who is married to a Derry woman. Emma DeSouza found herself at the centre of a legal battle after her application in 2015 for a residence card for her US-born husband, Jake DeSouza, was rejected. Any EU citizen living in the UK in accordance with EU regulations can bring their family …
This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News. Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…” The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives …
I was watching the Commons feed last night and missed Nick Watt’s report on Newsnight, raising the hare that Boris Johnson was going further than an all-Ireland agri-zone and was about to revive the NI specific backstop. Sam McBride of The Newsletter was watching. Last night’s report suggests that Mr Johnson may be preparing to abandon the DUP for the second time in six months, despite the party having ensured he became Prime Minister.. Newsnight said Mr Johnson was understood …
On the eve of Boris Johnson’s visit to Dublin it comes as no surprise that Sinn Fein claims that Leo Varadkar has conceded the backstop “at the eleventh hour.” Deniable though it may be, do they yet make a plausible case, as the squeeze tightens on Dublin to try to reconcile the defence of the single market with the serious threat to jobs and the all-island economy? Does Vardakar’s concession on the one hand that checks will be phased in …
The Times reports: Boris Johnson was under pressure from cabinet ministers last night to abandon his Brexit strategy and “come up with a plan B” after opposition parties pledged to veto any bid for a general election before he asks the EU for an extension On a chaotic day it emerged that: Rebel Tories expelled from the party by Mr Johnson have struck a deal behind his back with European leaders to secure a three-month Brexit extension. The group, which also includes …
As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of 21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings; and with Tory traditionalist MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at …
Ulster University campus. A new face of Belfast Taking bracing walks in west Donegal and in and around Belfast for three weeks without much sight of the political news does wonders for the perspective. Not for the first time, I experienced severe doubts about the relevance of the noise of politics to the rhythms of real life. I’m old enough to marvel still how the near Republic has caught up with the North in prosperity and appearance. The border towns …
Let’s start on a happier note. – Leo’s appearance at Belfast Gay Pride in which he tactfully avoided grandstanding in his brief few words. “I had a real honour today to walk with Lord Hayward, who, along with Conor McGinn, put the legislation through the Commons and Lords to bring about marriage equality here in a few months’ time. So we really want to thank them. “What we see today in Belfast is Northern Ireland at its very best. Open, …
We are in worse confusion over Brexit than anything in modern times, short of total breakdown and conflict. On one side there is a withdrawal agreement that will never pass this House of Commons. On the other there is the persistence with a backstop that threatens an outcome it is designed to prevent. This is not a rational situation. And yet the train is on course to hit the buffers. Boris Johnson will have satisfied himself that he has gone …
The authoritative Institute for Government has blasted most of the claims made for a No Deal strategy. In a new report it confirms the pressure on the Union and the need for Direct Rule. The head of NI civil service David Sterling recently addressed the institute and a leading member visited Belfast before issuing this report. The Union will come under unprecedented pressure: Johnson may well find that having left one political union, he spends an increasing proportion of his …
A century ago, two European states which talked like this at each other might have been on the brink of war. Without pushing it too far there is a tiny echo here of big bully Austria-Hungary leaning on little Serbia in the hot summer of 1914. (It will be remembered in the end Austria-Hungary imploded and Serbia expanded). Now no one of course is contemplating such a drastic breakdown. But how tragic and infuriating it is to be eating into …
