Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
The dam has burst. . Suddenly, against the background of a mass rally for a second referendum, the “technical agreement” of the withdrawal deal has been sprung as a leak. In 600 pages it’s an all-UK customs backstop in the short term. But a form of Northern Ireland backstop survives, fragmented, scaled down from the joint report and appended in annexes we’re told – but present. Hardly anybody has seen it but a cascade of critical comment has poured out regardless. …
For the cabinet, crunch time hasn’t been formally reached but it all seems over bar the shouting. Significant resignations are unlikely. After a progress report to the cabinet this morning, the old Remainer David Lidington says agreement is “within touching distance” while the younger Leaver Brexit secretary Dominic Raaab repeats the mantra of “good progress.” Raab had been reported as a possible cabinet quitter. Boris for once, sounds plausible: “No one is fooled by this theatre. Delay after stage managed …
Cabinet approval for Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal proposals, is again delayed as demands mount from inside the cabinet and without to have sight of the Attorney General’s legal opinion in full. (I’m not sure why is meant by “legal.” What they’re really looking for is a navigation chart around the treacherous rocks). The idea of ministers trooping in like junior officers to a “ secret” room in the Cabinet Office like the general’s study to view a summary of the …
The urgent task now is to close the gap between Leo Varadkar’s idea of a review clause for all-UK temporary membership of the customs union and Theresa May’s. The essential first move is to discover what each means. Both leaders are under domestic pressure for compromising already. Both sides are desperate for a deal, both economies would suffer severely from the chaos of a crash-out no deal. Both leaders would experience the bitter taste of failure affecting their own positions …
In a nutshell, this is the first problem Theresa May will confront from up to a dozen cabinet ministers this morning. “We must have control of the backstop. If Theresa doesn’t stare down the EU and win a mechanism that does this, the whole argument is immaterial as there is zero chance of passing the Commons. The Taoiseach indicated an openness to consider proposals for “a review mechanism”, provided that it was clear that the outcome of any such review …
Civil society in both islands looking on anxiously at contrasting stories about the state of the Brexit negotiations are speaking out. Persistent fears of a hard border has prompted a group of nationalists to approach Leo Varadkar to protect northern nationalists’ rights. This the second appeal of its kind in a year. Latest 4pm Leo Varadkar said this afternoon Ireland is willing to consider proposals for a review clause in relation to the backstop for the Irish border. The backstop …
In an “exclusive” pieced together from “dozens” of Whitehall and EU sources, the Sunday Times claims that Theresa May has secured a deal that will keep the whole UK in the customs union for the transition. A political declaration on “a future economic partnership” (FEP) will allow the UK to strike a Canada-style free trade deal that will appeal to Brexiteers. While the story doesn’t mention a specific time limit as demanded by the hardliners or a “break clause” floated …
While Mary Lou and friends were dismissing Brexit secretary Dominic Raab’s visit “ like a thief in the night” as a “box ticking exercise”, Arlene was treating us to a rare public smile. “Goodness, we have been here on a number of occasions and I think we are close to a deal that will work for Northern Ireland, that is what we want.” Raab was guardedly optimistic again at Stormont. But the louder mood music came out of the intergovernmental conference …
With prospects of a return to Stormont hovering around degrees absolute, the temperature is rising among unionists about the meaning of the backstop. They believe – and they’re not alone – that there is no outcome other than no deal that will not activate the backstop and “make Northern Ireland a protectorate of the EU.” Mixed messages are emerging as EU leaders have to decide whether to convene a special ratification summit on 21 November. Meanwhile a more parochial row …
Interesting that the Irish Times have published two opinion pieces this morning deviating a little from the paper’s editorial line of unwavering support for the EU version of the backstop. Newton Emerson accuses Varadakar of having “a tin ear” to unionist sensitivities while Stephen Collins bluntly urges Varadkar and Coveney to “ shut up.” Sensitivities in both camps are heightening. The DUP are nervous that Theresa May will rat on them if she can get a deal that will pass …
The Sun and the Mail claim another “breakthrough” – but is it too good to be true? THERESA May got a Brexit boost today – as it emerged the EU will cave into her demands on the Irish backstop. But today RTE reported that the EU has accepted Mrs May’s plans could be workable as long as both sides sign a separate treaty to enshrine it into law. The compromise brings Britain and the EU a step closer to signing a …
Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
Will “more time” do it for Theresa May and the rest of us? The option of a longer transition is intended to provide more reassurance that special measures would not be needed to avoid a hard border — even if the UK and the EU fail to implement a new trade deal by the end of 2020. Because the EU is mildly encouraging, the chorus of opposition in Westminster is all the louder. Remainers are as dead against as Leavers …
In single interviews it’s entirely appropriate for the presenter to play the devil’s advocate role. But in a long and pressing interview this morning on Radio 4’s Today programme with Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney, John Humphrys showed I believe a basic lack of understanding of the EU/Irish position of the backstop which partly explains why it’s such a conundrum. I’m pretty sure it was more ignorance than tactic. All Humphrys could do to fill the time was to keep …
Nobody can doubt that Brexit has challenged the stability of the Union, not only in Scotland and Northern Ireland but in England too. In a lecture in London last night he entitled “The Nightmare of History, Brexit, Ireland and the English Revolution,” Fintan O’Toole warmed to his theme, familiar to Irish Times readers, of pouring scathing contempt over the Brexit case, which he dismissed as post imperial “imaginings.” If he’s right and Brexit is creating a revolution at least in …
Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
Plans to make the backstop redundant and more time to devise a permanent substitute to help keep the DUP on side, are among the ideas being touted, as the Brexit negotiations on EU withdrawal reach a climax. The FT reports on ” the tunnel phase” when no new proposals will be published by either side until the deal is done – or not Before the weekend is out, negotiators want to agree a complete draft treaty, defining the terms …
There’s no doubt Brexit is creating fresh and unsought tensions over how to manage as well as express national identities. Two pieces today are vivid examples of the problems created by Brexit on these islands. Newton Emerson develops a theme raised here several times, but has yet to reach the top of the political agenda. How do Northern residents born and bred assert their continuing rights as EU and Irish citizens? Sinn Fein naturally want voting rights for Northerners in …
The submission of five former secretaries of state of both parties to the UK government’s consultation on their draft Legacy Bill gives significant backing to the idea of an amnesty or statute of limitations. It amplifies the call some of them and retired security chiefs made in the House of Lords last month. If the decision was to rest with the British establishment alone, an amnesty by whatever name would have featured as a formal option for dealing with the …
