Today’s Independent is not happy reading for the Labour leader, Joan Burton. A poll in her Dublin West constituency finds her struggling to hold on to her seat with the election just two weeks away. The results are; Leo Varadkar (FG) and Paul Donnelly (SF) on 20% each. Jack Chambers is on 17% for Fianna Fáil and Ruth Coppinger is on 15% for the AAA. Joan Burton trails on 10%. Worth pointing out 14% of the electorate are still undecided …
Sinn Fein Court woes, FF war in Roscommon, FG’s Health worries and Independents searching for their moment….It’s all the goss from #ge16
Suzanne Collins is the Director of Campaigns and Operations for the organisation Women for Election. As candidate selections continue apace for the Assembly elections in May, potential members of the 32nd Dáil are already out of the traps. As TDs hightailed it out of Leinster House on Wednesday morning, RTÉ correspondents caught up with some of the now no-longer-technically-TDs. Seven (former) TDs were interviewed and they were all men. Finally, a woman got in front of a microphone. The next …
ROUND UP: As #GE16 gets underway we will be taking a look behind the scenes to keep you informed of the latest gossip from the front lines. If you have views or news from your constituency then email [email protected] and keep us posted. All the gossip doing the rounds on the ground from #GE16.
Enda Kenny will finally call the general election tomorrow, which is likely to be held in the last week of February 2016. In that spirit, I thought I would do up a piece for some folks not as familiar with Southern elections and things to generally look out for. 1.Look out for the canvassers- There was a famous story about the Fine Gael TD, Nora Owen who thought she had a decent chance of topping poll in Dublin North, until …
MORE DAVRO THAN BERTIE: This is now a zero sum game. Loss of ground by Fine Gael over the campaign will automatically translate into a Fianna Fáil gain. Fianna Fáil will have to make its own ground in this one and will need to land some hefty punches on Enda, Leo, Michael and Simon. It cannot depend on Enda and Fine Gael to just lose it.
ELECTION 2016 (I): A grand coalition is unlikely. FF’s messages may be fuzzy and narrative unclear, but the machine is in working order with good candidates coming through. FG may have to patch up Labour, Renua, the Soc Dems and/or the rag bag independent rest. Or, they might just have do it all on their own.
MAKE UP YOUR MIND: RedC/Paddy Power have a new poll out today on the state of the Irish parties as we go into an election year. Here are the baseline results
Is consensus politics choking the Irish system? Freelance journalist Feidhlim ó Broin makes the case Much has been written recently about the steady rise of Fine Gael in the polls, about the nascent economic recovery and the construction of a new, progressive, modern Republic. Indeed, Ireland’s political parties illustrate this new order. Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Fein and the Labour Party agree on practically everything from European Policy, the need for a more liberal abortion regime, to crime and …
UNPOPULARITY POLLS: While the last couple of opinion polls have brought comfort to Enda Kenny and Fine Gael, showing the party at its strongest levels in over three years, those polling numbers – if repeated at the 2016 election – would still result in a significantly weaker situation for them.
CAMPAIGN TACTICS: Interesting poll out in the Irish Times today showing a continuing improvement in both Fine Gael and Sinn Fein’s vote. Whilst Fianna Fail remain steady at just around 19% and Labour are stuck at 7% .
DEFENSIVE POLITICS: Politicians find themselves forced to take a course of action and then can regret it later. It happens on policy, resignations, constituency matters. It’s now a long way until Spring and there is a danger that if people are giving credit for the budget now, it will be but a memory in the new year.
Well there we go Taoiseach @EndaKennyTD tells #Twip my intention has always been to have the general election in 2016 and I see nothing to change that — The Week in Politics (@rtetwip) October 11, 2015 If the coalition does hold it will be the first ever Fine Gael-Labour coalition to serve a full five year term in Irish history. Also Sinn Fein will have to fight two elections within weeks of each other as the Northern Assembly elections will …
With sentiment hardening in favour of the government parties in the south, we’re seeing a return of auction politics says Noel Whelan… …instead of offering to allocate additional resources that become available during the recovery firstly to those in greatest need the Government and the opposition parties are offering them to those sectors of the electorate most likely to vote and most able to make loud demands for attention. And… The spindoctors have been particularly busy with the weekend press. …
We are fast approaching the next Irish general election. Down in the polls at the moment, Kenny is determined to become the first ever Fine Gael leader in Irish history to win two consecutive terms in office. This will go nicely with his claim to have led the party to its biggest ever victory at the last election (in seat count anyway). Often living in Northern Ireland we forget that we are not really a big issue in Southern politics …
We are fast approaching the next Irish general election and this one is likely to be a real squeaker in terms of which combinations win enough seats to form a stable government. The latest polls show us a couple of things; Fine Gael (unless they fight a terrible campaign) will be the largest party. Sinn Fein will come third. The local elections showed the trend towards the party and it is very unlikely at this stage that Labour will over …
It’s not because we don’t realise the nature of the odds we have to beat, but because we know that if we can win that battle we can win them all. Let’s not start off by doubting our capacity to win. A defeatist attitude now is certain to lead to defeat, it’s primarily a question of whether we have confidence in ourselves and in the abilities, diligence and determination of our people, we cannot opt out of the future. Sean …
The latest Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent was released yesterday and it shows that Sinn Fein are Ireland’s most popular party on 26% to Fine Gaels 25%. Fianna Fail are on 19%, Labour on 6% and the Independents are on 23%. In terms of seats the NUIM academic gives the figures as follows Dail seat estimates based on constituency level analysis of 25 Feb Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll FG 46 SF 45 FF 34 IND/OTH 33 LAB 1 …
Over a week old, but still some of the best advice Enda Kenny will get anywhere in the public domain. The tailend of Tom Kelly’s column from the Irish News: Watching events unfold in Greece and the mass demonstrations of the far left in Madrid, nerves are becoming tetchy in Merrion Street. The Taoiseach is looking less Teflon like every day. He has always been the accidental Taoiseach albeit a lucky one but the forthcoming election will take more than …
Might be reading a bit too much in to this but it’s a strange tweet from the Irish Foreign Minister, when no election is due to happen. Possible election in Ireland next year? 2015 offers Ireland the choice of Constitutional politics or Cult politics. — Charlie Flanagan (@CharlieFlanagan) December 31, 2014 David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs
