REDC Poll shows the Irish electorate are still making up their minds.

RedC/Paddy Power have a new poll out today on the state of the Irish parties as we go into an election year.

Here are the baseline results

Recc1

Change over the last 18 months (shows little major movement between the main parties)

Redc 2

Gender/Age/Class and Regional Breakdown (Fianna Fail will be happy with their Dublin numbers and Fine Gael will be happy that they lead in all regions of the country amongst the parties).

Redc 3

A real plus for Fine Gael here as their negatives less than both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein.

Redc 4

A Fine Gael/Labour minority administration appears to be the favoured option.

Redc 5

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  • chrisjones2

    Another reason for Marty to be worried – cf the separate post. The strategy in De South isn’t working either

    Feed of clay. Indeed 2016 could be revolutionary but in a different way – where the young guard finally realise that the benign control of the Army Council needs to be dumped along with the tweedy jacked, cordite smelling elder statesmen

  • Neil

    Yeah you have a point, going from 10% in the last election to a projected 18% would be a real nightmare.

  • Robin Keogh

    LOL

  • Robin Keogh

    Good Stuff for us (SF) and steady as she goes. RED C are not as accurate as the credit afforded to them if the Euro elections are anything to go by. All other polls put FG at 30+ with Labour around 7 and SF around 20.

  • chrisjones2

    I am delighted to wait and see what the electorate do

  • Robin Keogh

    So am I mate

  • Gingray

    Decent poll for all parties, Fine Gael down but the additional data is great for them. Am sure there will be another blog on Slugger pointing out how bad this one is for Sinn Fein.

    Age data is interesting, would expect a slight boost for FF and FG on election day, and a hit for Sf.

  • Axel schürlein

    SF were polling at 13% with Red C, just prior to the 2011
    election, yet on election day they only realised 9.9%. The current poll result has just reconfirmed SF’s traditional transfer toxicity hasn’t diminished, 56% polled voters, stating they won’t be giving SF a 1st preference vote. 20% may just be wishful thinking.

  • Robin Keogh

    Red C last year prior to the Euro election underestimated SF vote by up to 3 points in each of the three cinstituencies. It also got it wrong for FG and Labour too. Moreover the most recent bi election in Carlow/Kilkenny (not natural shinner territory) saw huge transfers going to the SF candidate. Remember whatever percentage say they wont do something means the other percentage might oblige. SF will take a 44% first preference vote any day of the week.

  • Gingray

    A lot of caveats Robin – Sinn Fein will be lucky to get over 18%, which would be a great result.That’s based on current circumstances mind, could still go up or down, but I think it’s been fairly stable last few months for them, slight uptick after a summer drop

  • Are you saying the next Republic election is not now a fight between FG and SF? Isn’t a week a long time….

  • Robin Keogh

    I agree, a lot could happen and will happen especially once INM get going. I would be ecstatic if we got 18% but in truth i would more realistically expect around 16%, in line with our local council results given the sheer spread of new parties and independents. Transfers will be key. If our transfer pattern as seen in the Carlow Kilkenny bielection replicates nation wide, i would predict around 26 seats with a first pref vot of 16%..anything else would be a super bonus.

  • Greenflag 2

    That Oldham by election result was a delight for some eh !

  • Jack Stone

    The real question is those second preference transfers from Labour, Sinn Fein and the independents. Those are numbers I would like to see from the polls. Especially broken down by age and region. I think Sinn Fein will still struggle to get older people’s transfers. Sinn Fein’s hopes depend on the splitting of the Independent vote and the turnout among younger voters. This entire election will not turn first preferences but transfers.

  • Robin Keogh

    You are correct, only around 9% of the over 65 age cohort give SF a first Preference.