More encouraging noises for the incoming Taoiseach from the European Union’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn. As the Irish Times reports “I can see that there is a case to reduce the interest rates paid by Greece and Ireland,” the commissioner said. “In that context, it is important that we also look at loan maturities so that we can go beyond the hump of 2014 and 2015 and that also contributes to debt sustainability . . . The essential …
Fine Gael has a strange place in Irish politics. Many pundits (amateur and professional) like to do their calculations as though the party did not actually exist, or at least was incapable of drawing the affections of a substantial group in Irish society. It is often portrayed as (and often is) the ‘Anyone But Fianna Fail’ party. And yet, and yet, Enda Kenny is indisputably going to be the next leader of the country. Kevin Rafter’s book on the party …
With all seats filled, and, a recount in Galway West apart, the composition of the 31st Dáil is clear. Sort of. Basically, Fine Gael’s 76 and Labour’s 37 TDs make up a comfortable 113 governing coalition. Except that in the last 24 hours I’ve heard both sides moan about the difficulty of spreading the limited number of ministrys among their own TDs (geographically) nevermind between the two governing partners. With fifteen or so ministers plus up to ten junior ministers, whips and …
The European Union’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn, has been making somewhat encouraging noises [for the new Irish government] ahead of a series of key European meetings for the incoming Taoiseach. From the Irish Times breaking news report “We look forward to continue supporting the Irish people and the next Irish government in the implementation of the EU- IMF program, which is key for Ireland’s economy and its revival,” Mr Rehn told reporters in Brussels. “We have the common …
Probably the sharpest comment on the latest polls comes from former Justice Minster Michael McDowell, when he notes that: The latest poll does not indicate any last-minute surge in support one way or the other. But of course, we haven’t reached the “last minute” yet. Labour appears to have come off worst in its scrap with Fine Gael and the “Gilmore for Taoiseach” posters are going to become collectors’ items — just as the famous 1969 Labour poster “The Seventies …
The latest Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post shows a little bit of movement in support for a number of parties. From the iol report In today’s Red C poll commissioned by the Sunday Business Post, Fine Gael stands on 38%, a rise of three percentage points since last Sunday despite the controversy over the party leader Enda Kenny’s decision not to take part in the first of the leaders debates. Labour is down two points to 20%. Support …
In the Irish Times, former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, Donal Donovan, provides a timely, and useful, analysis of the various parties’ positions on the €85 billion IMF/EU bail-out ahead of the Irish general election. Here’s what he has to say on “burning the bondholders”. From the Irish Times article A major element in all parties’ programmes is the call to renegotiate the debt owed to bondholders. Implicit in the tone of the Fine Gael and Labour (and even …
According to RTE this evening: “The Red C poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post shows Fine Gael on 35%, up two points since the last Sunday Business Post Poll one week ago. “Labour is on 22%, up one. Fianna Fáil is up one to 17%, Sinn Féin unchanged on 13%, the Greens also unchanged on 2%, while Independents and others drop four to 11%.” As a useful addendum, here’s Noel Whelan points out that his opponent’s hopes that Enda will …
Politics.ie characterised it as a “ding dong” between Fine Gael spokesman Leo Varadkar and the still MP for west Belfast, Gerry Adams, on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland. But it’s probably not as bad as that 2007 debate… It’s towards the end of the 13 minute clip [RealPlayer audio file] that Adams displays what Leo Varadkar refers to as “his ignorance of economics”. “We would negotiate with the bond market after we have straightened out the crisis in our own economy,” [Adams] said. That would …
Inside the Irish Times Stephen Collins drills down into the data from the survey Brian noted to pick up on an interesting point. From the Irish Times article When asked if it was better to be part of the European Union the same pattern emerged. Among Fianna Fáil voters 87 per cent said it was better to be in the EU with just 9 per cent saying it was not. Fine Gael and Labour voters gave identical responses, with 77 …
That’s alternative budgets, plural. As in published separately. RTÉ has the details. But the iol report notes the differences between the two parties’ proposals and adds, for the benefit of more excitable commenters, [Labour Party leader] Eamon Gilmore ruled out a new Government of the left, saying he wouldn’t go into coalition with Sinn Féin. This would mean a deal with Fine Gael and major compromises on both sides is the only way. Adds The Irish Economy blog points to Labour’s alternative budget …
There had been rumours that tomorrows Red C opinion poll for the Sun would produce a surprise (partly because it is a party poll rather than leader poll). It will be tomorrow before we get the details (date of polling, methodology etc). But Matt Cooper (TodayFM) leaked the figures earlier on his radio show – FG 32%, Lab 24%, SF 16%, FF 13%, Greens 3%, others 11%. Many will spin that, post-Donegal SW, SF are merely getting a positive bounce, while ignoring the potential …
Now whilst Donegal is not Ireland, for Sinn Fein this byelection victory has the potential to become a game-changing moment. They now have one of those two predicted Donegal seats. In fact, Aidan Kavanagh’s Red C extrapolations underestimated Sinn Fein’s appeal to the Donegal South West electorate and exaggerated the strength of the mainstream parties. Pearse Doherty grabbed 40% of all first preferences, and 60% of all first and second preferences, something that’s previously been unheard of in the politics of the …
Former Fine Gael hotshot Ivan Yates had a bit of a car crash on Brendan O’Connor’s show on Saturday night. In brief – most people know him now as a bookie and a well-paid broadcaster on Newstalk where he is a vocal opponent of the current government (aren’t we all). He was a TD for 21 years and also Minister for Agriculture, Food and Fisheries for a few years in the 1990s. In the course of the interview Yates repeated most of the general criticisms of …
The Sunday Business Post goes into some detail on the degree to which the Labour party seems to be getting ready for what looks like an historically high tide in the polls in the Republic. Even to the extent of running a conference on ‘winning the west’ where they have traditionally weak. More interesting is their Back Room column which speculates that in fact, the realists within Fianna Fail may already be calcutating that this could be the best moment …
With Sinn Féin proposing some more taxes and borrowing here, it’s worth looking at what’s been happening there. On Saturday 9th October RTÉ noted Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s intial lukewarm response to Green Party leader John Gormley’s call for an all-party consensus on a four-year budget plan. Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said he would welcome a political consensus on the budgetary measures needed to get the economic situation under control. However, he said it was up to the Opposition parties to put …
Despite the poor showing in the polls, Fianna Fail have one secret, get-out-of-jail-free card they can play against both Labour (soaring ahead at 33% in the latest Ipso-MRBI poll) and Fine Gael (now level pegging at 24% with Fianna Fail). They’ve been in government for so long, they have acquired the knack of being plausible. Very much an underestimated quality in Irish politics. A normally talented performer in Dail, even Joan Burton was tempted to jump the shark with her …
Having survived an attempted leadership coup last week, Enda Kenny was in Belfast today. The BBC reports that the Fine Gael leader again ruled out any possibility of his party forming a coalition government with Sinn Féin because the Provisional IRA army council has not been ‘stood down’. Gerry Adams is “hugely” offended. From the BBC report The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has again said he would not share power with Sinn Fein because the IRA army council has not been stood down. Mr Kenny is …
As RTÉ reports Enda Kenny has survived the vote of confidence as leader of Fine Gael. Fine Gael parliamentary party chairman Padraic McCormack said the motion was carried after a very thorough and full debate. He said the decision had been made not to disclose the vote results and that the ballot papers would be ‘shredded’. Mr McCormack said the party was damaged in the short-term but will recover and will come stronger out of this episode. The problem is, …
The contest in FG is not urban or rural as Elaine Byrne suggested but between the politics of “what” and “how” as compared with the politics of “who, and where and when”. There is not inconsiderable number in Irish politics across the party divide for whom the intoning of the party name is the answer to all questions. This is great stuff at the time of an Ard Fheis when rallying the troops but holds less water when faced with more practical problems as we are now.
