We’re back to the DUP as the touchstone for a Brexit deal

 Tony Connelly’s detailed report from the EU side  identifies what he regards as a shift of ground by the UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox  to try to satisfy the DUP which is skunnering the chance of a breakthrough. The EU has been shifting towards providing legally binding assurances, through a Joint Interpretative Statement that sets out the obligations to conclude a free trade deal and look at alternatives to the backstop in quick time. But in the Commons earlier this …

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Give us the softest Brexit and a plague on all your houses! In Northern Ireland, the gap between people and politicians is wider than ever – latest North-South poll

  It’s a snap shot in a febrile atmosphere I know, but who can be surprised? A new poll from the Irish Times and Ipsos/MRBI – in fact parallel polls north and south – find that 59 per cent of Northern Ireland voters  want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the border – even if that means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The poll also found that 67 per cent of voters …

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The Casually Vacant Council Seats

When the DUP’s Peter Johnston became a member of Mid and East Antrim Council, representing the Carrick Castle DEA, on 19th October 2018 he did so by winning a by-election[1], the first time since May 2010 that a by-election for a council seat had been fought. Figures provided by the Electoral Office show that since the last local government election in May 2014 there have been 86 co-options to councils (including five to the old legacy councils), meaning that 19% …

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Amnesty looks further away than ever if Bloody Sunday comes to trial. Despite the inevitable political rows, even this weakest of governments will not be able to duck further action

Suddenly, over historic cases stretching back  almost half a century, legal developments   are emerging that inject a new – and to me unexpected – momentum into dealing with the past. The hard pressed PSNI,  so eager to hand over its role in historic cases to  the proposed Historic Investigations Unit, has done its controversial  job over Bloody Sunday and John Downey. Inevitably in Northern Ireland, reaction to this fresh impetus could overtake Brexit as a divisive issue – at least …

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Northern Ireland could be caught in a tariff trap imposed by a British minister. How can such a muddle be avoided in future?

Whatever that latter day Rumpole attorney general Geoffrey Cox comes up with by way of alternative arrangements to try to seal the withdrawal deal at Sharm el Sheikh  at the weekend, Northern  Ireland’s own arrangements are  the least likely  to be replaced, as the Irish Times’ Denis Staunton  has warned.        and is bound to cast fresh doubt on the DUP’s support for a revised deal. (Attorney General)  Cox wants the EU to make explicit the temporary nature of …

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Ah,oh… UK government gets a little rough with the DUP

From the champions of  the precious Union and the busy custodians of devolved  government , the crudest bit of spin I’ve  seen in a long time, so crude it makes me giggle. Not that it isn’t plausible, mind you! I’m sure Sammy will take it on the chin   One senior minister said the prospect is “very real” and very much on the prime minister’s mind. A second cabinet minister warned the government risked “sleepwalking into a border poll”. And a …

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Theresa May must do business with Jeremy Corbyn. So is it goodbye DUP?

In her heart, Theresa May must realise that her desperate attempts to hold a Conservative majority together and avoid a crash out No Deal in fifty days’ time are on the point of collapse. She told Donald Tusk yesterday that her party would never unite behind Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit letter and that 30 of her MPs would never back her deal unless changes were made to the Irish backstop.  To hear them all talk you’d think they had all the …

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From Donald to Theresa, the bluntest of messages. Nothing doing unless you drop the Brexiteer options

  With 51 days to go to and Brexit clarity as elusive as ever, EU council president  Donald Tusk drops a not so subtle hint that most of Mrs May’s renegotiation options are no goers.   Afterward meeting Leo Varadkar, Tusk said those who promoted Brexit without a plan for leaving deserve “a special place in hell”. There are 50 days left until the UK’s exit from the European Union, following the decision and the will of the UK authorities. I know …

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Mrs May’s tilt towards nationalism in Belfast implies an appeal to Varadkar to be more flexible about the backstop

Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen. A fundamental belief in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is part of my political heritage as a Conservative and Unionist – and that will never change. But the Unionism I believe in is one that respects absolutely the central …

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It’s Ireland’s call as well as England’s – and both can still win the match!

Let’s go straight to the bottom line. Ireland and EU26 say the backstop is necessary to prevent a hard border. The UK says insistence on the backstop in its present form is the best way to guarantee a hard border. These are  expressions of perfect deadlock. Nevertheless, after the defeat of the withdrawal deal by over 200 votes, Mrs May is returning to Brussels  to seek  an “alternative” to the backstop, either a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism to …

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Enter the “Malthouse compromise.”

In the present fevered atmosphere, what seems like a Eureka moment inside the Westminster bubble may not survive the cold light of day. Nevertheless, in Tory ranks excitement is building over the Malthouse compromise, a plan co-ordinated by a minister Kit Malthouse proposed by leading soft dealer Nicky Morgan. This would extend the transition period from the end of 2020  to December 2021 and allow the UK and EU to “prepare properly” for WTO terms or “obviate this outcome by …

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The DUP seem poised to bail out Theresa May. Will the EU be impressed?

 After that cosy little dinner at Chequers, the Downing St spin machine duly delivered straight to The Sun   THE DUP have privately decided to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week when she toughens it up, in a major breakthrough for No10. The Sun can reveal that delicate deliberations are now ongoing between the Ulster unionist party’s leaders and the PM. In a crucial shift, it has emerged that the DUP are now willing to accept a backstop as long as …

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Brexit panic surfaces in Dublin but the EU is implacable on No Deal consequences

Last night I managed to survive the Ivan Rogers Experience, ( YouTube) a remorseless  dissection of the  entire Brexit debate which was as depressing as it was impressive. With good reason, Rogers is known as the Eeyore among Brexit experts. He was the UK ambassador to the EU who quit in disgust six months into Theresa May’s premiership. Remorselessly he spelled out the defects of every option now facing the UK, including remaining or re-applying. He laid about him with …

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Opinion may be swinging but even DUP supporters favour a soft Brexit. What are the DUP doing to help bring this about?

Polling results on Brexit vary widely according to the questions asked and the sequence of events in Parliament and between the UK and the EU, a major analysis of recent polls has found. Mrs May’s persistence with her deal despite last week’s massive majority against it suggests  that even the most dramatic results can be regarded as  unstable or heavily conditional. Some results however are clear enough. Unionists and nationalists are deeply divided on whether there should be a second …

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Varadkar offers a way out of deadock – or a hedge against failure?

The UK national papers are united in hopelessness over May’s latest strategy, tempered only by disbelief.  Plan B is Plan A. Even the cheerleader for Brexit the Daily Telegraph is not impressed. The Europe editor slaps down the  chief political correspondent’s “ exclusive.” Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands. Peter Foster But the mere suggestion that a British government wants to ‘amend’ the Good Friday Agreement should …

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Backstop terms are in prospect in any final deal. Unionists cannot afford to stand apart

Unfashionable though it may be to ask: do the DUP have a point when they object so strongly to the backstop? Undoubtedly it confers special status on Northern Ireland but in a form nobody likes, even nationalists who called for it.  Mrs May’s deal a.k.a. the withdrawal agreement,  is presumed dead ; the backstop is only sleeping. The bitter controversy surrounding it dramatically expresses the fundamental  difference of outlook  between the legalistic approach of  people schooled from the beginning  in …

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Eastwood “Continuing to chase after the DUP, who hold a minority view in Northern Ireland is a mistake”

The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood has criticised Theresa May for her lack of consultation with other parties in Northern Ireland. He said; With each passing day, the British Government show an ever increasing disregard for the people of Northern Ireland. The sheer lack of communication, and indeed recognition that Northern Ireland will be devastated by a Brexit set to be delivered by dysfunctional politics in London, speaks volumes. “Despite false utterings from the DUP about a border down the Irish …

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The Meaningful Vote: Welcome to Political Bandersnatch

It’s hard to believe that Theresa May secured a draft Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union in November 2018. I feel as though I’ve aged 500 years since then. After weeks of parliamentary wrangling, countless amendments,a confidence vote and Sammy Wilson’s angry face on the television every night, the big day is here. I’ve written elsewhere about my thoughts on the Agreement. I would reluctantly vote for the Prime Minister’s deal. It is lukewarm tea, a soggy biscuit trapped at …

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Excuse the dampener -don’t be surprised if the moment of truth is postponed – again

To be fair, in her direct appeal to MPs “to take a second look,” Theresa May made a better fist at making the case for her Deal in the Commons  than she did earlier at the Doulton pottery in Stoke.  For the first time she was saying that the Scottish nationalists and the “Ulster” nationalists of the DUP would carry the can for a catastrophic result. As a proud Unionist, I share the concerns of Members who want to ensure …

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Nothing new to offer as Theresa May misfires the last shot in her locker in support of her deal

With her back to the wall Theresa May exposes  her own and her speech writers’ monumental ignorance of  UK devolution by bizarrely invoking the  creation of the Welsh Assembly based on a squeakingly narrow referendum result. as a killer argument   against calling a second referendum on Brexit.   What a pity that that she is such a poor  advocate  of what would otherwise be a viable proposal.  Extracts from May’s speech released by Downing Street last night show she will invoke …

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