Fresh concessions to DUP reported as negotiations near climax

Plans to make the backstop redundant and more time to devise a permanent substitute  to help keep the DUP on side, are among the ideas being touted, as the Brexit negotiations on EU withdrawal reach a climax. The FT reports on ” the tunnel phase”     when no new  proposals  will be published by either side  until the deal is done – or not  Before the weekend is out, negotiators want to agree a complete draft treaty, defining the terms …

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Can we manage the challenge to our identities created by Brexit?

There’s no doubt Brexit is creating fresh and unsought tensions over how to manage as well as express national identities. Two pieces today are vivid examples of the problems created by Brexit on these islands. Newton Emerson develops a theme raised here several times, but has  yet to reach  the top of the political agenda. How do Northern residents born and bred assert their continuing rights as EU and Irish citizens? Sinn Fein naturally want voting rights for Northerners in …

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IS DUP threat to abandon pact trick or treat?

Newnight’s Nick Watt broke the story just after the regular  morning lobby briefing in Downing St Just minutes before this story broke, a Downing Street source was asked whether the PM felt she could rely on DUP votes. “The confidence and supply arrangement we have with the DUP is a matter of record,” he said. “Is that a yes?” “It’s an answer? Yes The story.. Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party is planning to vote against the Budget if Theresa May …

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We shouldn’t let another attempt to deal with the Troubles legacy slip by

The submission of five former secretaries of state of both parties to the UK government’s  consultation on their draft Legacy Bill gives significant backing to the idea of an amnesty or statute of limitations.  It amplifies the call some of them and retired security chiefs made in the House of Lords last month. If the decision was to rest with the British establishment alone, an amnesty by whatever name would have featured as a formal option for dealing with the …

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The backstop with a good deal for GB can give Northern Ireland the best of both worlds

While Arlene is stuck in the grove of her blood red hard line, the local business community has found their own voice independent of politicians and have talked  to Peter Foster, Europe editor of the Daily Telegraph   700 miles away in Belfast, where the business community is trying to prepare the best it can for Brexit, despite all the uncertainty, the tone was markedly less apocalyptic ( than Arlene’s, stuck in a grove of red lines) . Declan Billington, …

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C’mon Arlene – Be a stateswoman. Let’s all jump together

As the Brexit negotiations approach some sort of climax it’s unwise to take any public statement entirely at face value.  Indeed any statement may have the opposite significance to the words usually mean. Thus when Juncker imitates the Dancing Queen and  tells the world: “The rapprochement potential between both sides has increased in recent days, the Dancing Queen  interprets the optimism as pressure on her to give more concessions on the backstop. So she threatens to refuse to sign a …

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The UK and Ireland are closing in on a border solution

The FT hopefully leads:  “Ireland backs Theresa May’s plan for all-UK customs union with the UK”. The story is jointly by-lined by their political editor at Conservative party conference in Birmingham and their Ireland correspondent. She will offer to meet the EU half way on the vexed issue of the Irish backstop, agreeing to Brussels’ demands that Northern Ireland stay part of the single market regulatory area of the bloc. But, in return, she wants the EU to concede to …

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The Agreement can only be amended with cross-community support

20130410 GFA 15

Eyebrows were raised on the 2nd October when Arlene Foster commented that the Good Friday Agreement wasn’t sacrosanct, hinting that she would like to amend it to accommodate Brexit. Her words been praised but also widely condemned. Leo Varadkar responded by saying that “the Good Friday Agreement is not up for renegotiation” in the Dail. Anyone paying close attention will notice that Foster’s comments are very similar to statements made by her party colleagues, Jim Allister and Jamie Bryson over the …

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Don’t let Arlene cause panic. The GFA isn’t dead, only sleeping and will acquire new life

When Arlene Foster said the GFA wasn’t  “sacrosanct” was she deliberately provoking a fit of the jitters? What did she mean? The Irish Times had no doubts:        The apparent attempt by Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster to undermine the Belfast Agreement in pursuit of a hardline strategy on Brexit is ill-considered and dangerous. It would appear that the DUP is actively pursuing a policy designed to ensure the restoration of the hardest possible border on the island regardless of the consequences for living …

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May’s team claim to find flexibility in DUP demand for legal guarantees for no checks ever in the Irish Sea

This is a running story .. Latest at 22.53 The FT leads with  DUP puts May on notice over Brexit backstop Arlene Foster tweeted defiantly: Meeting with Prime Minister just ended. NO border in the Irish Sea will ever be acceptable to unionists throughout the UK . . . regulatory or otherwise. Government sources claim there must be just enough wriggle room created by new time limits. But are they deceiving themselves  once again? From the FT story For some months, Mrs May’s team …

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Moment of truth approaches for the DUP deal as May prepares to reveal her latest plan for the border

This morning on the Today programme, Theresa May stalled when pressed on when she would have her detailed plans for the backstop ready. But she will have to say more when she meets the DUP this afternoon. This suggests she may unveil it in her leader’s speech tomorrow morning – unless once again, the DUP stop her. Q: Will you compromise on the Irish backstop? May says she hopes to get a backstop that never needs to be used. Her …

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Despite the PM’s steadfast support for the Union, Arlene Foster choses this moment to distance the DUP from Theresa May

The Daily Telegraph claims Arlene Foster has given “a major boost” to Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions in an interview with the paper on the eve of Boris’ appearance at a Conservative fringe meeting.  In comments which fail to back the Chequers plan, she has also kept her distance from Theresa May personally. In a major boost for Mr Johnson’s leadership ambitions, Mrs Foster endorsed the “belief” and “spirit” contained in his blueprint for Brexit. One her biggest disappointments  is the failure …

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Theresa May’s version of the Union is as dangerously limited as the DUP’s

That ebullient and creative academic Pete Shirlow recently wrote a piece in the Belfast Telegraph discouraging the indulgence of Northern Irish whinging about ourselves as “ a place apart”, and unloved in GB.   You can argue this either way. As he says: “ The idea that most people in Britain do not give a monkey’s is as true as it is false… I am sure most people in Britain never think about Northern Ireland, but they probably never think much …

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Cabinet may be moving towards Canada. Are the DUP about to back No Deal?

Not normally the keenest of DUP watchers, the New Statesman have their eyes on Sammy Wilson, who is the DUP’s Brexit spokesman in the Commons when it isn’t Nigel Dodds. Sammy is at heart a No Deal man. While I believe Chequers has the legs to move closer to Norway (these images become more bizarre by the day), Canada is now said to be favoured by a cabinet cabal – but not by Sammy, who has spoken against it . …

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Efforts are mounting to drive a wedge between Theresa May and the DUP over the backstop

The Guardian has been the only media I can find claiming a British ploy to get round the backstop in these terms.  Senior diplomats involved in the negotiations have reacted furiously to the details of a fresh UK proposal for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland, briefed to the Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, at last week’s Salzburg summit. Under the solution, May will agree to Northern Ireland potentially staying, in effect, in the single market, as the rest of the …

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A second referendum will sadly become an orange and green issue in Northern Ireland

As the fallout from Salzburg continues, there has been a renewed focus by remain voters in Great Britain to push for a second referendum.  Campaigners want a rerun of the June 2016 referendum or a vote on the Brexit deal. Jeremy Corbyn is currently under pressure to back another vote at the Labour conference. There’s a perception that a second referendum would be relatively straight forward in Northern Ireland because it voted ‘remain’. In an ideal world, that would be …

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Stepping back from the cliff edge has begun. Chequers is not dead – says the EU

The salvage job has already begun and a better verdict sought than disaster.  If Salzburg was not all a misunderstanding, it was more like a farce without the laughs. People literally passed each other in the night.  Theresa May’s ten minute pitch over dinner, followed by a leaders’ chat over lunch next day without her was hardly the stuff and style of diplomacy. In the gap between the two meals,  rumours and spin raised  suspicions and fears about  British intentions …

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Theresa wraps the flag around herself and Northern Ireland. But fresh proposals on the border may test the DUP deal

Flanked by two Union Jacks in the State Downing Room of No 10, Theresa May reacted to her mauling in Salzburg with a sharp sense of affront. Let’s face it,  a woman can still register hurt dignity more convincingly than a man.  The setting was in fact improvised; it had been moved inside from the street because of a deluge. And in a faint but uncomfortable echo of her disaster at last year’s party conference,  there was a delay because  …

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Brexiteer border plan is not a game changer, nor a government wrecker for the DUP

Will Arlene Foster proclaim the merits of the Brexiteer European Research Group’s plan for the border when she meets Theresa May?  She will come under immediate pressure to give her verdict – for or against the Chequers plan on which May refuses to compromise; or in favour of the ERG’s? Nigel Dodds has declared the plan which is rival to the prime minister’s plan “positive and timely.” But is this an implied  threat to withdraw support from the government? It …

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As the practicalities of the border issue are wrestled with, the pressure on the DUP is mounting. Are the hardline Brexiteers preparing to rat?

Now what?  On the border issue, the EU Commission and the Brexiteers are coming closer together than either to the government, according to the Guardian.  This report shows that both sides are getting down to the practical options,  instead of political grandstanding. Do the options appeal to the DUP? Downing St are sticking with ” no EU officials” at British ports but for how long? Does ” no EU officials ” rule out categorically different rules for the island of …

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