Blank Thanks to Aldous Duke we have something most didn’t get hear on election day: Rodney Connor’s ungracious defeat speech – taking time to round on Douglas Bain and threaten legal options -how many other candidates didn’t congratulate the victor, praise the count staff etc? A humilated Fearghal McKinney attacking unionism for not offering ‘choice’. Blank
After several requests we bring you coverage of what will be the SDLP’s first bit of parliamentary business: Blank
Trying to explain politics and democracy to young children is tough and I often fall back on comparisons they understand like the X-Factor or Strictly Come Dancing. Like politics to my children I’m aware such things exist while not paying them much heed but they do provide a reference point to help explain electoralism – the most talented or their favourite isn’t assured of winning and sometimes won’t make it to the final stage. They now kind of get to …
At one point during the election campaign I read a senior Alliance member and good friend of Slugger boasting they were one of only two parties running in every constituency. I reminded him as it was the first time in 10-15 years for six of the eight constituencies held by Nationalists that wasn’t much of a boast. Now the results are in what can we tell about Alliance’s first visit to those constituencies in such a long time? FST – …
With Kieran Deeny not running the constituency returned the best performances for three parties (in terms of increased percentage): Pat Doherty (SF) – +9.5% Thomas Buchanan (DUP) – +2.0% Ross Hussey (UCUNF) – +7.3% Even the SDLP managed their 2nd best % improvement here: Joe Byrne (SDLP) – +4.9% Anyone care to speculate on what if anything can be deduced about Deeny’s vote from this? ADDS: I know some will get cross at me doing this (not comparing like with …
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Gerry Adams was always guaranteed to take West Belfast and he did at a canter – 71% of the vote. I will attempt to delve into the numbers and forgive me if this gets confusing and correct me if I am wrong.. In 2005 he took 24K votes from 34.5K on a 64% turnout. With the boundary changes he should have expected 27K (+3K) votes from 39.5K (+5K). Turnout was down 10% so to tread water Adams should have received …
After the tightest of votes and three recounts Michelle Gildernew has taken Fermanagh South Tyrone. Declaration made on Radio Ulster. Gildernew 21304 – Connor 21300 McKinney 3574 / Vasundhara Kamble 437 / John Stevenson 188 Blank
Ulick noted a link to the biggest laugh of the election. Bairbe de Brún rides out some misplaced Unionist triumphalism and hours later joined the crowd cheering Gildernew’s victory. Arlene may have punched the air, should have saved it for a wall. Link Blank
While the SDLP easily retained its three seat other areas indicated that ship may not be out of troubled waters just yet as five candidates recorded the party’s worst results in decades (looks more like ever): FST – 7.6% worst result ever for SDLP West Tyrone – 14% (excluding Deeny’s candidacy in 2005) worst result ever Mid Ulster – 17.4% equal worst result ever with 2005 General election South Antrim – 8.7% worst result ever Upper Bann – 12.7% worst …
In this election we had six candidates with hopes and decent media profiles beyond their political exposure (in three cases their political background was essentially non-existant). All of them failed to translate this into anything approaching a successful campaign: Fearghal McKinney – ex-journalist Mike Nesbitt – ex-journalist, ex-victims commissioner Eamonn McCann – columnist (also a political activist) David Vance – political pundit and blogger Harry Hamilton – singer Trevor Ringland – former rugby player Seems being known doesn’t guarantee being …
A few weeks ago I tried to present some ways the parties could judge if the election was a success or not. DUP Retaining seats all their Westminster seats will be the main aim. Adding a seat in South Belfast, as a full gain or countering a single seat loss elsewhere, would also be an excellent result. The can’t expect a gain in vote in percentage or real terms from the last Westminster election as the TUV are now involved …
Now the election is over we can compare information from the Inform Communications and LucidTalk (not for Slugger) polls with the outcome. Actual DUP 25% SF 25.5% SDLP 16.5% UCUNF 15.2% TUV 3.9% Inform Communictions DUP 26% SF 25.% Other 19% SDLP 17% UCUNF – 13% TUV – no report Predicted: Fermanagh/South Tyrone candidate, independent Rodney Connor — who has said he will take the Conservative whip unless it is against the interests of his constituency — is running neck …
While this election can’t predict the outcome of next years’ Assembly election it may give some pointers to possible target seats and vulnerabilities. Most constituencies seem to indicate no change likely but the following show some possible change: Fermanagh South Tyrone – possibility of SDLP dropping sole seat and a SF gain North Antrim – TUV target seat from DUP South Antrim – big hitters weren’t on field but one of the SDLP/Alliance could be vulnerable to UUP gain Upper …
If Slugger falls over you can use this link to backup Liveblog. Click Here <a href=”http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=28853317c3″ mce_href=”http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=28853317c3″ >Slugger’s backup election blog</a> Blank
KeithBelfast seems to be single-handedly covering the election for UTV overnight. You can find out what he’s at here. Blank
Please enter any turnout data from 9pm via the form below. It can also be added into the comments. We will pull out any interesting information as things progress. If you are on the move you can email, text or call Mick with any information. Blank
As before please enter any turnout data from 5pm via the form below. It can also be added into the comments. We will pull out any interesting information as it progresses. If you are on the move you can email, text or call Mick with any information. (comments closed moving over to 9pm thread) Blank
Further to Mick’s ‘call to action‘, there will be numerous threads throughout polling day for discussion on turnouts. We have created the form below to ensure we can quickly process figures and generate overviews as we go. The information will be used to assist Slugger predictions during this and future elections and inform discussions. It relies on your contributions to build a broad picture. If you are gathering turnout data please take a little time out to input it via …
The final NI Leader’s Debate takes place at 9pm on BBCNI. We are running another Liveblog throughout the broadcast – available in body of this post. <a href=”http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&task=viewaltcast&altcast_code=105ccbfa74″ mce_href=”http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&task=viewaltcast&altcast_code=105ccbfa74″ >NI Leaders’ Debate</a> Blank
