Turnout thread – 5pm

As before please enter any turnout data from 5pm via the form below. It can also be added into the comments. We will pull out any interesting information as it progresses.

If you are on the move you can email, text or call Mick with any information.

(comments closed moving over to 9pm thread)

Blogging at: http://heartsofoakandsteel.wordpress.com

91 thoughts on “Turnout thread – 5pm

  1. I will be voting in a few hours time. What do I ask and who to for turnout figures? I live opposite my polling place, have to say haven’t seen it this busy since the GFA vote.

  2. Garza, they’ll be pinned up on the wall. If you ask anyone in the station they can point it out.

  3. Dundela Infants School, East Belfast 5pm

    Box 40 317/900 = 35.2%
    Box 41 320/1044 = 30.7%
    Box 42 355/1046 = 33.9%

    Overall 33.2% (Euro +14%)

  4. Belfast East

    LOCATION: Dundela Infants

    40 317/900 35%
    41 320/1044 30%
    42 355/1046 34%

    Lagan Valley

    Dromore Central Primary
    75 232/881 26%
    76 197/821 24%
    77 275/947 29%
    78 237/872 27%
    79 231/825 28%

    Harmony Hill Presbyterian Church Hall

    57 198 | 604 32%
    58 251 | 767 33%
    59 189 | 644 29%
    60 342 | 1018 34%
    61 259 | 890 29%

    Maghaberry

    9 224/855 26%
    10 253/870 29%
    11 151/633 24%

    Dromore Central Primary

    80 136/490 28%

  5. East Londonderry

    Limavady Central Primary School

    30 130/517 25%
    31 156/646 24%
    32 180/557 32%
    33 205/717 29%
    34 229/957 24%

  6. Turnout averaging 29% (as we predicted using noon figures)

    Our predicted guesstimate final turnout is still 66%

  7. Some figures from FST at noon:

    FST

    Richmond PS BGawley

    68 91/606 15%
    69 118/632 19%

    Augher PS

    66 110/789 14%
    67 112/779 14%

    LOCATION: Howard PS Dungannon

    79 158/939 17%
    93 108/810 13%
    95 89/762 12%
    96 134/700 19%

    Gives us an average turnout of 15%.

    Using our prediction system we would guesstimate final turnout of 74% (pinch of salt)

  8. Some bg numbers in South Belfast

    Belfast South

    Finaghy Youth Centre

    46 376/844 44%
    47 450/887 50%
    48 405/1045 39%
    49 325/990 33%

  9. Mark i was accosted by a senior presiding officer and asked my name as i would be reported for having the audacity to ask the number of electors at a box that hadnt put the number of electors on it. Am I in deep doo dah?

  10. Sorry I forgot to pick up the maximum turnout figures for Clandeboye Primary School – I did take a mental note that there were about 890 for Box 41 and over 1000 for Box 42.

  11. Several people are sending data without all fields complete. We need votes cast and total voters.

    If we don’t get it all we can’t use your info.

  12. 5 p.m, Dungannon Primary School

    Box 89 : 221
    90 : 258
    91 : 112
    92 : 185

    These are all the figures available

  13. Seaview is usually a relatively high turnout station, unlike a lot of neighbouring working-class Protestant areas.

  14. Sam,

    Wasn’t questioning your recording which is greatly appreciated. It is rogue as in by far the lowest reported.

  15. Mark

    Surely it’s Duncairn ward, ergo working class “Protestant”, ergo crap turnout?

  16. Sam

    I got a figure at noon today and it was out by 100 votes (they had recorded 215 when in fact it should have been 105! Worth checking with the station staff if you can.

  17. Some low ones

    North Antrim

    LOCATION: Leaney P.S

    18 160/660 24%
    19 182/579 31%
    20 147/583 25%

  18. Not likely – that box is usually dreadful. Only managed about 18% in the Euros.

  19. Noon figures North Antrim (low)

    Armoy

    37 69/717 10%

    Ramoan Pres Hall

    36 50/631 8%
    Bushmill Community Centre

    29 56/504 11%
    30 90/700 9%
    50 100/450 22%

    Bushvalley P.S

    6 60/592 10%
    7 52/559 9%

  20. Lot of results be reported with time selected as ‘don’t know’.

    I can’t use those ones.

  21. Newry & Armagh

    LOCATION: Forkhill Community Centre

    92 265/968 27%
    93 258/1008 26%

  22. No Paddy. He was wrong and you had every right to the information as long as you had a valid reason to be in the station.

  23. Current average – 30%

    Figures have settled down and we are 68%+ for the prediction.

    To keep an eye on on how its progressing with the 9pm figures, Slugger is estimating an average of 63% then.

  24. Hi Mark, can you clarify…is 68%+ your UK national general election turnout projection, or just northern Ireland? If it’s not UK national general election projection, what would be the comparison figure from the 2005 general election? Thanks for this wonderful idea…

  25. Thanks – “68% +” mean 68-70% projected, or anything above 68%, perhaps including up to, say, 78%, just can’t be more specific at this stage? Thanks in advance, H.

  26. South Armagh seems low but is noted for late voting..
    Lot of police checkpoints in the area today which could put people off.

  27. Also, another question, would you have any views on the likely relative level of Northern Irish turnout to the rest of the UK this time round? I notice last time round NI turnout was 1.5% higher than the national average, but in the past the relationship has been volatile. Are there any local factors at play that might militate to make NI electoral turnout to the UK overall level this time that you can kindly think of?

  28. Mark I will nip down to finaghy youth centre at 9 for the latest figures but I can tell you that the polling is extremely brisk, could be a very high turnout in south belfast

  29. Lagan Valley

    Largymore
    29 206/637 32%
    30 157/609 26%
    31 201/617 33%
    32 231/696 33%
    33 183/715 26%
    34 222/837 26%

  30. Paddy,

    South Belfast has been the busiest reported – very little data from FST.

  31. Our wee formula is giving 68.5%

    Its its first outing and created on weak data but hopefully it will be stronger next time.

    We can check how it worked out very soon but we’ve been hovering around 66-69% since the start.

  32. No way you can compare the two. All politics are local and its much more parochial than that here.

  33. i had a quick word with Lord Morrow at a polling station in dungannon, he said FST would be extremely close but his demeanour was quite worried

  34. I got the box numbers and votes cast at 12 and 5 for Newry Sports Centre, but there was no, out of a possible number of votes, info.

  35. In one polling station in Ballymena (North Antrim)- by 5pm pretty much dead on a 1/3 of potential turn out had voted. Sad to see two young anti-agreement girls who hardly looked old enough to vote themselves handing out flyers for Jimbo. Swayed me though.

  36. North Antrim

    Dunclug Primary School – Ballymena North

    83 93/386 24%
    84 274/773 35%
    85 209/536 39%
    86 185/556 33%

  37. Frm anecdotes I predict a higher turnout in the fermanagh side of the constituency, may favour connor

  38. North Down

    Kilmaine Primary School

    10 – 273/842 (32%)
    11 – 270/966 (28%)
    12 – 265/980 (27%)
    13 – 206/863 (24%)
    14 – 290/980 (30%)

  39. Isn’t that Sylvia Hermon’s constituencey? She seems very popular which might help in getting a high poll.

  40. Well I was just in at 8pm there and it was hiving.

    About a dozen people in the queue in front of me for my box (14)

  41. Given the increased poll that is being predicted, are there any thoughts as to who this is most likely to benefit? Probably unfair to ask if anyone has seen a pattern, but has anyone?!

  42. got electorate figures for clandeboye ps – box 41 810, 42 1090, 43 822, 44 799. Do you need me to resubmit the figures via the form?

  43. mark is there anywhere on the web we can see which boxes relate to which areas of a constituency?

  44. Yes…one of the most prosperous parts of N.Ireland

    The population is about 85% protestant for those seeking other demographical data

  45. First Presbyterian,Bangor rd, Holywood

    53 336/893 38%
    54 328/867 38%
    55 438/1234 35%

  46. Forgive a relative newbie…but can I just go to my polling station round the corner and get this at 9pm??? Like, just ask for it??

  47. Aye. It’ll be stuck up on the wall. Two stations have acted the maggot but the rest have been sound.

  48. I’ll be closing the comments on this one soon as the 9pm thread is about to wake up.

Comments are closed.