This is the fourth of a series of articles on the prospects for the Irish provinces for the 2026/7 season. Also published here are the previous three articles on Connacht, Ulster and Munster.
Compared to last season, Leinster have lost six test players: James Lowe (Tokyo Sungoliath), Rieko Ioane (Blues), Rabah Slimani (Toulon), Luke McGrath (Perpignan), Ciarán Frawley and Will Connors (Connacht) as well as squad players John McKee (Scarlets) and Jerry Cahir (Connacht).
They have recruited Joey Carbery (from Bordeaux) and Peter Dooley from Connacht and have promoted Stephen Smyth (hooker), Conor O’Tighearnaigh (lock) and Josh Kenny (wing) from their academy (compared to 8 players last season). This has reduced their senior squad size from 46 to 43 and their test player count from 32 to 27.
With at least 20 Leinster players either with the national squad or restricted by player management protocols for up to half the season, they are going to have difficulty fielding a team without delving into their academy and recruiting temporary signings from the AIL even more deeply than they have in recent seasons – starting with two fixtures against the Lions and Sharks in Johannesburg and Durban next month.
They were heavily defeated at the same stage last season when their international squad players weren’t available until rounds 3 and 4 of the URC and took a long time to re-build confidence, cohesion and momentum in their season. We can expect the same to happen next month.
The fact that they have also lost Mahon Ronan (to Ulster) and Billy Corrigan and Henry McErlean from their academy and failed to recruit Noah Byrne from the Irish u.20s (going to Australian Rules Football) or announced any new recruitment to their academy are also warning signs.
It appears their contribution to the costs of redeveloping the RDS, renting Lansdowne Road and Croke Park while the RDS was unavailable, increased contribution to the cost of central contracts (earmarked to improve the elite player development pathways in the other provinces), and reduced gate receipts due to declining crowds have all contributed to something of a financial crisis. Leinster’s average home crowd declined from 30,000 2024/25 to 23,000 in 2025/26.
This is particularly concerning as having access to larger stadiums should have been a unique opportunity to increase the Leinster fan base. Attracting only 9,000 odd spectators to a URC quarterfinal knock-out match in a 50,000 capacity stadium in a province of nearly 3 million people smacks of a huge sales and marketing marketing failure. Lots of factors may have contributed to this, but ticket prices and a less attractive defensive style of play surely didn’t help.
Leinster used to be able to recruit at least one non Ireland eligible star player each season to help provide cover when the internationals are away, but this year have not been able to replace Rieko Ioane or Rabah Slimani. Despite losing 6 test players have only been able to recruit Joey Carbery (who never became first choice elsewhere) and Peter Dooley (fifth choice loosehead at Connacht).
It used to be that the other provinces recruited players surplus to requirements at Leinster, but now the boot is on the other foot and Leinster will again be looking to academy players and amateur players with AIL clubs to plug the gaps when the internationals are away and injuries take their inevitable toll. Virtually no other top level club has to do this.
With only three tight heads in the senior squad, who will Leinster play when Furlong and Clarkson are unavailable for much of the season? Are Niall Smyth (just 21) who has yet to make his debut, and Andrew Sparrow in the Leinster Academy (not awarded a senior contract), going to be asked to play against world class Springbok props Boan Venter and Ox Niché in South Africa next month? Health and safety should be informed.
The bottom line is that Leinster are being set up to fail this year, even if failure, by their standards, means mid-table mediocrity. The days of Leinster making it to the semi-finals and finals of the European Cup for 6 years in a row (even without winning) may be looked back on as a golden era for Leinster rugby.
The squad is aging, and no new Leinster players made their debuts for Ireland in 2026. Leo Cullen may well have decided to get out while the going is good. While supporters of the other provinces may rejoice at the end of Leinster dominance, I don’t think Leinster’s decline will do confidence in the Ireland squad any favours either.
Prediction: Leinster to start badly but qualify for the play-offs in the URC and Champion’s cup without winning anything.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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