Labour facing real risk of wipeout as their polling slump continues

The past days have seen a number of opinion polls released ahead of June’s General Election, and they continue to make grim reading for the Labour Party. The ComRes/Sunday Mirror poll gave the Conservatives a 50% share, double that of Labour on 25%. The last fortnight has continued to give Tories a vote share in the high forties, whilst Labour have been languishing far behind on the low to mid twenties. Were these results to be replicated in the election …

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Welsh poll flashes up an epic warning for Corbyn’s UK Labour…

Many Labour activists can ill afford to believe what’s almost certainly on its way.  But if this poll is anything to go by it may pay a huge price for shifting so far to the left in Wales, even as much of their vote was heading for UKIP ahead of English trends in the Senedd… Analysis by @roger_scully > 'Sensational' poll suggests Tories could end Labour majority in Wales https://t.co/goBZwPRfed — Adrian Masters (@adrianmasters84) April 24, 2017 To put this …

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The problem with the Lib Dems’ anti-Brexit strategy

The snap General Election called for June 2017 would appear to be a significant opportunity for the Liberal Democrats. In contrast with Labour’s mixed messages on Brexit, the Lib Dems are offering a much clearer stance on Brexit, positioning themselves as the party who will stop a hard Brexit and keep the UK in the single market. Could this year’s election provide an opportunity for the Lib Dems to become the party to speak for the 48% of the UK …

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A centrist alternative to the UK Labour Party?

It’s worth reading this first… …being an equidistant centre party is good for winning votes and terrible at winning seats. That’s three questions anyone wanting to set up a new centre party has to answer, just as a preliminary: What does your proposed party stand for? How are you going to build an actual party, not just an HQ? How are you going to win Parliamentary seats and not just accumulate wasted votes? Once they’ve got the answers to those, …

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How #RHI disappeared down a rabbit hole and the real pretexts for our Election to Nowhere…

[slideshare id=74649766&doc=niassemblyelectionreview-170407152022] So on Wednesday night, I gave this round-up presentation on the Northern Ireland Assembly election to the Wales Governance Centre at the University of Cardiff. It has a fairly bleak title, for which I begin by laying out the pretext. It also contains a slide in which I look in detail at the RHI story and how strangely most of the key matters relating to it were resolved well before the election took place (including the source of …

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New powers for Stormont? That’ll get’em going!

James Brokenshire has solemnly warned that if Stormont is to receive new powers as result of Brexit, power sharing must be restored. This blatantly original statement puts him in line for a Nobel Peace Prize or a slot on Pointless. It’s just the sort of threat that will have them rushing to the conference table next Monday. It  puts a small cart before a big horse that is out there somewhere roaming the range. Who cares about powers when what …

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Slugger’s video round up of views from around the UK regions and Ireland…

Lots to take in the day after Article 50 was triggered. I’ve been busy trying to roster up videos which contain various viewpoints from within the UK and Ireland. The first being a very useful interview of Theresa May by Andrew Neil: The David Davin Power on maneuvers with the Taoiseach in Malta where Enda Kenny was attending an EPP conference… Then here’s our local guys kicking things around in two separate rounds… The Newsline report from last night has …

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Is London’s Anglo centric unionism fundamentally at odds with unionism in the devolved territories?

If you read nothing else this week, try this fascinating insight from Richard Wynne Jones, director of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University (where I’ll be speaking in few weeks), into what may turn out to be one of the key drivers in pushing the United Kingdom apart: English nationalism is a curious concoction, combining a rather unlikely sense of grievance about how England was treated within the devolved UK with a sense of entitlement and even superiority about the UK’s place in the …

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Theresa May challenged over her “tin ear” to the interests of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Theresa May is in Swansea today at the start of a four nation tour to the devolved administrations , declaring; “I want every part of the United Kingdom to be able to make the most of the opportunities ahead.” As the Guardian reports she’ll face demands from the Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones  to radically rethink her approach to the union. as she begins a four-nation tour before beginning Britain’s exit from the EU “Theresa May to visit Wales as …

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Theresa May’s fightback to support the Union through Brexit is only work in progress. The Irish are creating a benign vision of a United Ireland. Do the British want to match it?

The imminence of triggering Article 50 has at last woken up the British government to the reality of the threat to the Union. In a reported forthcoming tour of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to explain a negotiating  position that has seemed to ignore them,  propping up support for her “beloved Union” has become  Theresa May’s priority. Her first line of defence  will be  to  convince the massed ranks of critics that a “hard Brexit” is a misnomer which  does …

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Scotland and Northern Ireland move centre stage, says Downing St. ” Save the Union” is the mission

Well what do you know? At the beginning of a very busy news week, the Times leads with a real revelation from right under their noses. After months of  patting the wee Celts on the head with bland assurances that Brexit will be fine all round, “sources “ now say that  “concerns about Scotland and Northern Ireland were discussed at last week’s cabinet.. and the impact of Brexit on the UKs devolution settlement is the government’s greatest concern about the exit …

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Welsh language to be allowed in the Commons

The Times (£) has more than one echo today.. After a six month campaign.. The government confirmed yesterday that it would bring forward a motion to allow MPs to speak the language when the Welsh grand committee meets in Westminster, despite rejecting the change last year on cost grounds. The committee, made up of all 40 MPs representing Wales, meets every two months. Chris Bryant, who campaigned for the change when he was shadow leader of the Commons, said he …

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Tony Blair has made the case for a rethink on Brexit and Northern Ireland will need a new financial deal. Is anybody listening?

Hurtling at us like a comet but unnoticed by the local worthies is the prospect for repatriating powers direct from Brussels to Stormont, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay. Among them are powers over agriculture and energy, which in Ireland are linked or integrated north and south. How they’ll be divvied up is  hasn’t  even been examined. The British government retain a substantial interest in these areas where powers currently rest with Brussels as it  negotiates new trading arrangements to replace membership …

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For our uncivil politics, an Irish Language Act is part of the solution

 



Among Sinn Fein’s list of grievances claiming lack of unionist respect is the failure to introduce an Irish Language Act. It is an important but seemingly not a red line issue. Oddly enough this may make it more amenable to settlement. It is among the SDLP’s desirables. It looks as if Enda Kenny will back it in whatever happens after the Assembly election.

At first glance the chances of any sort of development are unpromising. It raises all the hackles and is easy campaign fodder.   As David has reported below, with her familiar lightness of touch Arlene Foster has borne down on the language issue in her undiplomatic reply to Sinn Fein’s “diplomatic offensive.” We need not take this as the last word after 2 March.  As she knows, Mrs Foster misses the point while  Ms  O’Neill has declined to lock horns on the issue.

We know how on this as in many others, rival parties make a battlefield out of the fine print of legal entitlements and equality impact assessments. This gets us precisely nowhere.

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Is the Catholic Church Losing the Irish People? Reflections on Tony Flannery & the Church of England

On Sunday, Redemptorist priest Fr Tony Flannery celebrated mass publicly for the first time in five years, defying a Vatican ban on public ministry dating from 2012. Fr Flannery is being disciplined by the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith for expressing views contrary to official church teachings on matters like clerical celibacy and the ordination of women. Fr Flannery insisted the public mass was a one-off event, to celebrate his 70th birthday and the 40th anniversary of his …

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The Supreme Court rules that devolved assembly consent is not legally required for Brexit. But the political battle is only just beginning

. So  the Westminster Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 – but on what exactly and how often until Brexit is achieved?  The battle has only just begun. It’s  bad news for nationalists everywhere.  The Court ruled that the consent of the Scottish Parliament, the National Assembly of Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly is not legally required.  The argument put forward by Sinn Fein, the SDLP and in the courts by Raymond McCord that under the GFA the …

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UK exports have boomed since the Brexit referendum, but mostly to the EU

In the immediate aftermath of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union on the 23rd of June 2016, the pound fell sharply against other major currencies. At the time of writing, £1 will buy €1.19 or 1.25 US dollars, down 8.5% and 14.7% respectively $1.47 and €1.30 on the eve of the referendum. It has been claimed by various sources that a fall in the pound, whilst obviously bad news for importers and holidaymakers, will prove a …

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The gap between politics and the law is further exposed. But ruling on the clash between the Scots and Irish nationalists with the UK government will be the more momentous decision for the Supreme Court.

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Brexit or Flexit, for a time UK politics will take sole control of the stage

There’s a plethora of speculation around Brexit and how it might affect Northern Ireland. For all the heartfelt nature of Brian Feeney’s attack on Arlene Foster highlightly the fact that she doesn’t represent majority opinion in NI – her Euroscepticism is aligned with majority opinion in the UK. And for the foreseeable future, so far as internal politics are concerned, it’s the only opinion that counts. UK Labour under their ingenue and (if news from their last regional bastion is …

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May’s Brexit War Cabinet has no permanent places for the NI, Scottish or Welsh Secretaries.

From POLITICO, the Prime Minister, Theresa May has put together her Brexit war cabinet which is essentially cabinet sub committee with the remit of “overseeing Britain’s negotiations with the EU and formulating wider trade policy.”  The report notes that this committee will be the ultimate decision making body over the UK’s exit from the European Union. The committee includes mostly Leavers but also has some members who voted Remain. Yet, the committee has no permanent posts for the Northern Ireland …

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