Welsh poll flashes up an epic warning for Corbyn’s UK Labour…

Many Labour activists can ill afford to believe what’s almost certainly on its way.  But if this poll is anything to go by it may pay a huge price for shifting so far to the left in Wales, even as much of their vote was heading for UKIP ahead of English trends in the Senedd

To put this in historical context, the Tories have not won the Welsh popular vote since 1859, when it took 64.6% or 2,767 of the 4,352 eligible voters in the whole country.

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  • Anon Anon

    Mansfield, once the site of miners’ strike clashes, becomes top Tory target

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/mansfield-miners-strike-general-election-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Ex Miners going to vote Tory, because foreigners. Labour’s over.

    Generally, I think it’s hard to kill political parties and things can always shift surprisingly quickly, but after this is done Thatcher will look like a left wing dream.

  • Obelisk

    This is actually more shocking than what happened to Labour in Scotland. After all, they gravitated from one left wing party to another there. If true, then yes, Labour maybe past the point of no return.

  • Brian Walker

    Could it just be that the Conservatives might again be about to become the party of Great Britain rather than confined to the party of England? Not necessarily dominant in Wales and well short of it in Scotland but doing well enough to regain the title?

    With gains in England from first Ukip then Labour and mainly from Leavers in Scotland including some former SNP, it says quite a lot about Brexit going majority mainstream and suggests a dent in nationalism. If it’s sustained, it would be a great endorsement of Theresa May’s political judgement.

    With local elections on 4 May we may see some Labour revival in the new metro mayoralties without transferring to Westminster. And will Tory gains soak up the demand for English votes for English laws (Evel) or give it a boost, with possible implications for the size of our block grant?

    Above all would EU27 be impressed?

  • Anon Anon

    The EU27 doesn’t care. They’ve their red lines which will be independent of the who is on the UK side of the table. It’s small minded to think otherwise.

    The Unionist sentiment in Scotland has clearly coalesced around the Tories. In that sense they are the Great Britain party. I’d not be getting terribly excited about the demise of the SNP from one poll that has them comfortably ahead though. And I’m not sure he 21st Century Orange Card is a long term win, either.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    Someone said on the radio the other day that Tory strategists see UKIP as the “gateway drug” for working class Conservative voting. Looks like they’re right. This could be very interesting.

    I think immediately of the very intelligent and worthy young former colleague of mine I had a debate with on Facebook in the summer of 2015, who just couldn’t see the problem with Corbyn. Even some time after his election, she was saying Labour’s continuing poor fortunes were because it was a divided party.

    If it’s as bad as it looks, there is going to be one battle royal for Labour after the election. The big fight on the left feels like it’s already going to be about why Labour lost so badly.

  • Peggy kelly

    It really is quite a sight to witness such a shift in a political landscape no matter where it occurs. It’s important however to correctly identify as to its cause and possible consequences rather than get carried away by fancy.

    The pro Brexit British public are swiftly coalescing around the tories in order to get the job done and out of the way. They will worry about policy later, for now it seems getting out of the EU is paramount on their minds. Interesting that the Conservative and Unionist party finally manages to ride a wave, just as Irish Unionism goes under.

    The one silver lining is that nothing can motivate nationalism quite like the conservatives can. Teresa May it seems could well be the unintended hero of Irish and Scottish nationalism.

  • Fear Éireannach

    What is the the problem with Wales? They vote for things like Brexit, although the EU gave them significant aid, and the Conservatives, who will leave them to rot.

  • mickfealty

    Spot on Brian.

  • mickfealty

    Half agree with that. But not this: “Ex Miners going to vote Tory, because foreigners. Labour’s over.”

    More like a thirty year old economic disaster was not cleared up by Tory or Labour administers. Lab struggling to give them an answer they can hear never mind understand.

  • the rich get richer

    Voters actually expecting politicians to follow through on the referendum result……

    Who’d have worked that out……….looks like Theresa May has…….

  • Obelisk

    Good point. If Labour is thrust aside in Wales, and all opposition to the Tories collapses, then we are faced with a choice between the real face of the Union and our respective escape hatches.

    And the real face of the Union is right wing Tory.

    The Tories look like they will rally in Scotland somewhat, but by nowhere near enough to thwart the SNP. Which means the deciding vote on independence will be the left leaning supporters of the Liberal Democrats and what is left of Labour.

    The SNP has to be betting that unrestrained Tory rule will encourage the recalcitrant to be brave.

  • Nevin

    The smaller parties appear to be blaming Jeremy Corbyn but those polled could have switched their allegiance to one of them rather than to the Conservatives.

  • Obelisk

    Trying to detach myself from my Nationalist position and looking at what is happening in Great Britain neutrally, I have one question to ask.

    Mick, do you feel Labour has any hope of ever recovering from this? They seem caught in a death spiral they cannot escape from. I know some people like blaming Corbyn, but they forget Corbyn was elected by the membership because they (and the wider public who rejected Labour in GE2015) had lost faith in what the party stood for. He is a symptom, not the cause.

    What can they do after they lose to reverse this?

  • Slater

    Is it because they are Celts?

  • ulidian

    Why are people surprised? Leave voters are basically coalescing around the Tories, whilst most Tory Remainers were never particularly pro EU anyway. The presence of a joke like Corbyn is simply going to aggravate the damage done to Labour, possibly rendering it terminal.

  • Zorin001

    I guess it’s better to be shafted by the local elite than the global elite?

  • Peggy kelly

    I have been praying for a tory landslide for years.

  • Lex.Butler

    We’ve seen the French result so no surprise that the Welsh are going to punish Labour. That Plaid and the Lib Dems are also dead in the water is not a shock since Wales voted for Brexit. Voters do seem to want to give May a strong mandate to negotiate. However, in 5 years it may well be a different picture. The best news is the continued evidence of the end of UKIP. No doubt they think going for a pure anti-islamic play will be popular, but it cements their image as very nasty and utterly irrelevant. Always a silver lining if you look!

  • Zorin001

    I’ve been thinking the same, in 5 years time will we look back at this as a tactical victory for the Tories and a strategic failure. Whatever happens here on in with Brexit they own it, warts and all.

  • Anon Anon

    Corbyn has been poor. The divided nature of the Labour Party has been 100 times worse.

    If you doubt this, watch one interview where the interviewee simultaneously has had to seek a Labour vote and their own comments on Corbyn at the same time.

    I don’t think they’d be winning as a united party. I don’t think they’d be facing the wipe out they are either.

  • Anon Anon

    Foreigners are taking things was the reason expressed in the article. You can debate the underlying cause of the xenophobia, but the expressed reason for the vote switch is xenophobia. Do we take people at what they say, or not?

    And I’m fairness to New Labour, Gordon Brown did try at least try to address the symptoms of this. That was all kibboshed by the crisis. Dealing with the causes is harder, and faces a there is no other option neoliberal mantra. That is going to be doubled down on in the aftermath, and doubled down again. Gotta be competitive in the global market.

  • Paul Culloty

    UKIP won 7 seats in the last Welsh Assembly, so their increasing irrelevance seems primarily responsible for the Welsh Tory surge. Ironically, the Welsh Labour party was the best-performing national branch in the UK, based on last year’s Senedd’s result, so while Corbyn’s influence may be catching, ths situation is certainly not as terminal as in Scotland.

  • Abucs

    If the Conservative party does as well as the poll indicates then they will have the same opportunities as the American Republicans as they would gather a new set of people within their tent.

    If they make special efforts to not just rule the country but to enhance the local living conditions of these new voters it will make it very hard for Labour to get them back. Same story if the Conservatives pick up ex-Labour voters in northern England.

    The Conservatives need to reach out to the unions who have been taken over by Progressive politics, not commensurate and often detrimental to their historic mission.

    I know in America Trump is making a special effort to extend his tent and tackle inner city black poverty where the Democratic policies have failed miserably despite a decades long monopoly on power.

    If Trump can turn a dreadful situation around and get say a quarter of the black vote (3% of the total American electorate) in his tent then the Democrats will also find it extremely hard to win the presidency with their identity politics malarchy being fully busted. There are quite a few states where the black vote in inner city poor areas is what keeps the Democrats in the game and as ‘The Donald’ said, it ain’t helping these voters.

  • Zorin001

    “If they make special efforts to not just rule the country but to enhance the local living conditions of these new voters”

    Is that even in the Tories DNA? Previous history would suggest otherwise, the hint of tax rises the past week wouldn’t point to it either.

    I’d also be wary of using Trump as a good example for anything, his domestic policy is in a mess as he’s had to go back on pretty much all his pre-election pledges. He doesn’t know how to work the system and it shows, his attempts to bypass it have fallen flat too.

  • Abucs

    Which pledges?

    A great part of the reason he got elected is because he called out the system as not to the benefit of Americans and they just agreed with him in large numbers.

    The guy has just gone from nowhere to President of the United States even with such a vicious and biased media campaign against him.

    He took on not just one of the main parties but both of them and he is the one left standing at the end.

    I think he knows quite a bit about the system.

    God grant him the continued victories in changing it.

  • Zorin001

    The failure to repeal “Obamacare”, shot down by a Republican revolt no less. Flip-flopping on NATO, his claims of Chinese currency manipulation and others I’m sure I’m forgetting.

    Let’s not overlook the shambles around Bannon and Kushner and the Russian links within his administration (I actually think he is personally uninvolved but show bad judgement around it)

  • Anon Anon

    The Tories reach out to the Unions.

    People have gone insane. Theyve put something in the water. It’s the only logical conclusion.

  • Abucs

    So three then?

    Obamacare is a work in progress with the possibility of a new bill expected in the next week. Donald Trump still says he is committed to this.

    Donald Trump has still put Nato on notice that European countries have to start fulfilling their commitments to its budget. German Chancellor Merkel has agreed to this, that’s a win for Trump.

    I don’t know how to check whether China has ended their currency manipulation but Donald Trump has publicly claimed that so far in his Presidency they have and he said this around the time of his meeting with his Chinese counterpart. If this is true (and again I don’t know how to check it) it would appear as another win for Trump.

  • Zorin001

    Has he had a clear domestic policy win in his first 100 days? He hasn’t had a honeymoon let’s put it like that.

    My reading is that Trump doesn’t have any overreaching g vision for his Presidency, no grand plan beyond the first thing he posts on Twitter. Simply being President is his goal, he has it and now he doesn’t know what to do with it.

    Still could be worse, we could end up with Pence should he be impeached or pass away in office and that’s just frightening.

  • Abucs

    If you are stuck in identity politics then it would seem that way. Donald Trump just got a large section of the union vote, especially in the rust belt states.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/labor-unions-pivot-praise-trumps-tpp-withdrawal-describe-meeting-president-incredibl

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20161109/OEM02/161109818/labor-union-anger-fueled-trump-in-midwest

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/labor-unions-hillary-clinton-mobilization-231223

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/11/23/election-unions-teachers-clinton-trump/94242722/

    The historical origin of the unions was in the medieval European guilds starting in the Italian city states who rebelled against local kings to keep their own produce. This was the beginning of capitalism that spread across the globe, first to Holland via the Italian banks and textile companies and then onto Britain.

    The Progressive Marxist view of “employers verse exploited workers” was a later narrative, foreign to the original guild movement.

    The Progressive ideology of open borders and globalisation has near destroyed the union movement in western countries.

  • OneNI

    Maybe they realised the money they got from the EU had originally come from the UK Treasury. Maybe their lived experience of Conservative govt at Westminster and the fiasco that is Labour in Cardiff made them realise its not the Conservatives who left them to rot

  • mickfealty

    Talk that one through with me? Is it another class of failed entity argument?

  • mickfealty

    Plaid could take Ynys Mon.

  • Abucs
  • Anon Anon

    Yes, but not by reaching out to the Unions. The Unions all encouraged their votes to go Democratic.

  • Abucs

    The union leadership did yes, before the election. But many of the union workers who Trump reached out to did vote for him.

    Their leadership is now re-assessing the situation. Read the first link above.

    ok, i’ll post it again

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/labor-unions-pivot-praise-trumps-tpp-withdrawal-describe-meeting-president-incredibl

  • mickfealty

    You do like asking the easy ones… 😉 It’s the narrative, that word the Blairites put so much store by, and I think it’s all but disappeared.

    I cannot imagine the UK without the Labour party, and cannot see the Lib Dems ready enough to scale up (hearing some comic stories from that quarter about poor organisation in the council elections).

    The Tories picked three duds after Major. Perhaps it is what parties that have been in government a long time do. In this regard the decline under Brown, Miliband and Corbyn should be seen in one sweep.

    Unlike the Tories, who got hit badly, but early, Labour’s ship had been sinking very slowly up until the Scottish Referendum, and is now seemingly holed badly. That’s seven years adrift already.

    It will be forced to drop the civil war stuff and ask: what it is about and , whom does it serve alongside the question of which horses can they ride to get where they need to go.

    A lot of people worry Corbynites will hold on. If the polls are right, they will have to walk because all most of their supporters wanted was a ‘square go’ as we like to say, and if he fails usual rules apply.

    How soon they come will depend on how quickly they adjust to the new environment and how low the new base is. There’s plenty wrong that needs fixing.

  • hgreen

    Doesn’t say much about the education system in Wales.

  • Zorin001

    Fair enough on that, I was glad to see the collapse of the TPP too, TTIP looks dead in the water too.

    I’m not dismissing everything Trump has said, some things around the economy I agree with and I agree that unchecked Globalisation has been a disaster for many many people. I just don’t think he has the capacity or skills to deal with these big issues. I disagree with him and his administration nearly across the board on social issues though.

  • runnymede

    We managed without the Labour Party for a few hundred years before it came into existence, Mick. Its time has come and gone I fancy.

  • Anon Anon

    Zero Hedge, riiiiiight.

  • Obelisk

    But if that is true, and it’s still debatable, what will replace it?

    Twenty years ago Tony Blair led a political revolution that swept away the Tories so profoundly that back then I recall the same sort of existential questions being asked about them. In fact for all the talk of May’s impending triumph we neglect to acknowledge it has taken twenty years and freakish circumstances for the Tories to reach the cusp of this potential landslide.

    Is what England really wants just the Tories with a smile, better presentation and some liberal concern for the less fortunate?

    And sans that they’ll just elect the Tories?

  • hgreen

    Seriously? Theresa Mays political judgement? Her budget lasted 48 hours. She’s a fraud, a “jabbering dupe” of a PM. A robot controlled by her leaders in the right wing media.

  • Macca

    A dent in “nationalism’? More like a strengthening of “British nationalism” over the water, surely?

  • hgreen

    Of course they’ll recover. They are the largest political party in Western Europe. The Tories recovered from the Blair wipeouts.

    The right wing, ultra nationalist and outright racist parties are in the ascendency across Europe and the USA using immigration to fuel their growth. Eventually, hopefully people will see sense.

  • hgreen

    Ha ha. Yes we were all having quite the time of it before Labour came along. If we hadn’t extended voting rights to the working classes we wouldn’t be in this mess.

  • hgreen

    Unlike the Irish the British see themselves as subjects. As such an inferiority complex is built into the national psyche. Many actually do think the alumni of Eaton and similar establishments are better than them. Thus they are easily seduced by a Tory with an accent and a trust fund.

  • Stifler’s Mom

    The expressed reason for the vote is not xenophobia. The local people do not have some irrational fears or prejudices, they are fed up with mass immigration into their community, like many parts of the country. No one wants their community changed so drastically with foreign people moved in. Its an entirely normal wish to preserve and defend your own people and land.
    Can you recognize this as a legitimate wish? Or do you think it racist to object to an eventual overwhelming increase of foreign people that push out the local people?

  • Anon Anon

    So they are afraid of foreigners moving in. Is there a name for that…?

  • Jeremy Cooke

    The rules have changed, or are changing, utterly. It no longer makes sense to talk about Left or Right. Divisions are now: free or managed markets; Globalism or Localism; big state or small state etc.

    cf LePen and FN

    Have a read at this article about a French chap Christophe Guilluy
    https://www.city-journal.org/html/french-coming-apart-15125.html

  • mickfealty

    It has to be considered. Though I suspect it’s also been scuppered by its illconsidered experiment in mass party democracy. I wrote about it at the time saying the SNP had done something similar in Scotland, but had been wise enough to keep the mass movement outside the governance structure of the party and then filter it in. Too much power, for virtually no responsibility was always an impossible proposition to sustain.

  • mickfealty

    Like rubbing you belly and patting your head in government you have to both. In fairness, Brexit might make that easier.

  • Stifler’s Mom

    You’re misunderstanding my point. Its not that people are afraid of foreigners, its that in many places there are too many foreign people moving into areas that the local people become the minority. Most people are happy with foreign people and the new culture, especially food, that they bring. Its when there are too many that the locals are overwhelmed. There is also the strain that is put on government services such as NHS services, with rapidly increasing the population.
    Can you answer my question? Can you recognize this as a legitimate wish? Or do you think it racist to object to an eventual overwhelming increase of foreign people that push out the local people?

  • the rich get richer

    Fair Play to Theresa May…..

    She has a Feel for the Voters Way…..

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Jonto25, anyone out on the streets in 1968/9 who was at all aware of the extreme pressure Labour NICRA sympathisers in Britain could exert to swing public opinion during the late 1960s would hardly agree with you. Unionism almost buried itself under plethora of knee jerk reactions then, and it only “recovered” any spurious credibility with the British public with the (in turn) knee jerk development of Republican violence.

    While I believe that a people has to actively take freedoms for itself, it appears to be an unwarranted assertion to demand that everyone over the water must be inevitably considered an enemy, when so many have long and sincerely campaigned for our historical injustices to be righted.

  • Stifler’s Mom

    It took over a year to get Obamacare passed, with many amendments. The recent failed health bill ‘Ryancare’ was totally from Paul Ryan and had been in existence for a long time before the 2016 election even happened. Apparently he is a puppet the same way Hillary and the dems are, so hes not going to propose a good health plan. It will happen, but not until its put together by Trump and a competent team not under control of special interests.

  • Zorin001

    “Trump and a competent team”

    I’m yet to see evidence of the latter from the Trump administration. Kushner and Ivanka don’t seem “awful” though the Trump regime seems to resemble more a Banana Republic kleptocracy at the moment.

    If he ditches Bannion (which seems more likely as time goes by) and learns to take more sage advice I could see him becoming a more effective President, but I think he’s realised that the executive office is quite restrained by the US political system.

  • Anon Anon

    I’m not misunderstanding your point. It’s “Sandy Row is Sandy Row” thinking and at the end of it is newcomers being attacked.

    I get the anxiety around change. But change happens regardless. Major cities move through lots of them; Irish areas become Spanish areas. And the explicit preying on these fears is xenophobic.

    There is zero evidence immigration puts strain on services. Quite the opposite. Without immigration and with an aging population, we’re screwed.

  • Zorin001

    Identity politics as well, much as I wish it wasn’t as factor we can’t discount it.

  • the rich get richer

    Are you saying that Immigration is having no effect /strain on services .

    Lets examine that . There is a shortage of housing . Saying that immigration has no influence on this is ridiculous . If you have more people you need more housing .

    Health care : Obviously there are many immigrants working in the Health service but immigrants also use Health services . More demand for Health services……

    Schools , Water , Rubbish collection , etc……

    If you or others are saying immigration has no effect on these matters then you are in ” Alternative Facts ” Territory .

    Is it any wonder the Public have lost faith in the establishment when that establishment is presenting “alternative Facts ” as the truth .

    There may be good reasons for immigration but justifying Immigration on untruths is not the way to go about it .

    The Politicians / Establishment have not much faith in their arguments when they deny these real consequences of immigration . If they continue to tell untruths , how will that work out .

  • Christopher Mc Camley

    Think means reach out to union members who might be fed up with unions that seem to be more interested in abortion, Palestine and transgender issues than real work issues.

  • Jeremy Cooke

    Indeed – people from Somewhere versus people from Anywhere. When the old left embraced free markets they lost their working class constituency and had to recreate a voter base built around single-issues and special interests; further excluding their old voters who were now abandoned.

    The pro-market Right had to temper their original Neo-Con ideology by morphing into the Neo-Liberals by trying to get the voters, who were being harmed by unrestrained Capitalism, to support them on patriotic grounds – they needed to give us a common enemy; hard on money but soft on social issues.

    The worst thing that happened to the West post WWII was the fall of the USSR – without it the money-men were freed to do as they wanted.

  • ScottishClive22

    Considering Plaid got less votes than DUP, UKIP, Greens and almost the same votes as SF they get an awful lot of press.And they dont really do much. Compared to the very effective SNP machine they pretty rubbish.

  • ScottishClive22

    Very true, all these progressives seems to think that votes would prefer to not vote for the Tories, but in reality votes want people they can ‘trust’ on the economy. Rightly or wrongly the Tories have that reputation – People, particularly those with limited budgets know all about living within their means and that is what they recognise in Austerity. They dont know about Keynesian economics all these see is having to spend less than they earn.

  • Stifler’s Mom

    Restrained by the US political system is putting it mildly ! Both parties are corrupted by special interest serving puppets. The US system is also a bit strange in that the opposition party and even judges seem to be able to block everything. Difficult to get anything done I imagine.

  • Anon Anon

    You’ve literally no research backing up anything you’ve said there. While simultaneously accusing me of fake facts. A half an hour on Google will get you any number of research papers that show migrants contributing on net to the economy. I’m not doing it for you, but knock yourself out.

    You’ve a couple of biases in your logic. The first and most important is that the impact of immigration only runs one way. In addition to causing some increased demand to the system, they also contribute taxes which provides more money for the system. In other words, increases supply. Without immigration there would be less resources for the services you cite.

    The reason public services are straining is underinvestment for the better part of 7 yeas now. You may believe that was justified due to the recession, but that’s what it is. But the cuts are invisible while new people aren’t, so guess where the blame goes.

  • Zorin001

    Also in fairness he was able to defund Planned Parenthood so that was another one. So some success but not the sweeping vista of change he was promising. I understand he was walking back a it on the wall this morning as well.

  • Zorin001

    Most parties in every country are in hoc to special interest groups, i.e: those with cash. After Brexit we can expect the Tories to go cap in hand to their donors with worker rights most likley for the chop.

  • Nevin

    Bill Clinton’s and Tony Blair’s Third Way seems to have sunk without trace.

  • JoeCro

    The most Brexit areas have the lowest levels of immigration

  • Cal Cryton

    “Above all would EU27 be impressed?”

    Impressed about what, that the UK is becoming a one party state and resembling Turkey more and more every day?

    The UK could elect the Greens into government and the facts of Brexit haven’t changed. No having cake and eating it too. You’re out of single market.

  • JoeCro

    Brexit and the upcoming Conservative landslide are an expression of British nationalism.

  • grumpy oul man

    Wat is this reaching out!
    proof please.

  • grumpy oul man

    ” Trump and a competent team” ( words that just don’t sit together) I believe he has his son in law on as we type.
    He’s also got the son in law sorting out the middle East and the federal adminstration, but I suppose in Ivana gives him a hand you could call it a team.

  • grumpy oul man

    You do know that sayings things is very different from doing things, shall we wait until he actually does something before we start awarding him victory’s!

  • MainlandUlsterman

    From my Welsh Labour pal in Swansea:
    “There was an interesting article on TV here examining why Torfaen voted leave … It was summed up by an old steel worker who said ‘They build nice roads and lovely new buildings but there are no jobs see’.”