The Supreme Court rules that devolved assembly consent is not legally required for Brexit. But the political battle is only just beginning

. So  the Westminster Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 – but on what exactly and how often until Brexit is achieved?  The battle has only just begun. It’s  bad news for nationalists everywhere.  The Court ruled that the consent of the Scottish Parliament, the National Assembly of Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly is not legally required.  The argument put forward by Sinn Fein, the SDLP and in the courts by Raymond McCord that under the GFA the …

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Theresa Villiers: “ultimately it is parliament’s decision whether we repeal the 1972 European Communities Act or whether we don’t.”

Andy’s valiant attempt at providing clarity on the role of the devolved institutions in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU doesn’t appear to have worked for some of our local representatives. The Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, couldn’t have been clearer. “In the weeks and months ahead we will be working with both the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Executive on all these matters,” [Theresa Villiers] told BBC’s Sunday Politics show. “But ultimately it is parliament’s decision whether we …

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Scottish LibDems hell bent on oblivion.

Michael Moore, LibDem Secretary of State for Scotland, says that two referenda are required for Scottish independence. Here’s the BBC report. If we have an advisory referendum set up by the Scottish government I think there is a strong likelihood, and it is certainly my personal view, that you would need a second referendum on the formalities of agreeing what has been sorted out between the governments.” Mr Moore also said he would not be including any of the powers …

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The Psephology of Scotland (3) – SNP – it could have been even better….

The SNP won 53 of the 73 FPTP seats in the Scottish Parliament. These are the other 20, with the winning party and the margin between them and the SNP. (From the BBC.) Coatbridge and Chryston   2,741 Lab Motherwell and Wishaw  587 Lab Uddingston Bellshill   714 Lab Glasgow Maryhill and S’burn   1,292 Lab Glasgow Pollock     623 Lab Glasgow Provan     2,079 Lab Glasgow Rutherglen       1,779 Lab Orkney   868 Lib Shetland  3,328 Lib Edinburgh North and Leith   595 Lab Cowdenbeath    1,247 Lab Ayr  1,113 Tory Dumfrieshhire   4,274 Lab …

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The Psephology of Scotland (2) – Scottish Labour

Start with a few facts: 2007 Constituency results for Scottish Labour – 648,374, 32.2% 2011 Constituency results for Scottish Labour – 630,461, 31.7% So down 18,000 votes and 0.5%. 2007 Regional List results for Scottish Labour – 595,415, 29.2% 2011 Regional List results for Scottish Labour – 523,559, 26.3% So down 72,000 and 2.9% 2007 Constituency List differential – (53,000) 2011 Constituency List differential – (107,000) As a comparison for the SNP: 2007 Constituency List differential – (31,000) 2011 Constituency …

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The psephology of Scotland (1) – Lib Dems

Just some facts: It is difficult to overstate the scale of the destruction of the Lib Dems in Scotland – which is of huge historical significance. 2 illustrations will suffice. 1) Glasgow is a region with 9 constituencies. The Lib Dems polled a total of 5,312 votes, 2.5%. That was less than Respect and less than half the Green Party vote. 2) In the UK Parliament the Lib Dems represent the entire Highlands and Islands region bar Na h-Eileanan an …

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Last astonishing Scottish Poll

STV report an incredible set of figures in the last pre-election poll: “The poll, conducted for STV News and likely to be the last before polling day, shows the Nationalists gaining enough of the vote for 61 seats, 14 more than they had in the last parliamentary session. Meanwhile, the poll indicates a major slump in support for Scottish Labour, with Iain Gray’s party taking a total of 33 seats.” Can this type of outcome really happen? (The poll asked …

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Some surprising SNP support emerges…

The Scotland on Sunday comes out of the closet with an editorial of some ferocity: “…The fact is that Labour’s campaign has been appallingly negative and treated the electorate with contempt. Both main thrusts of its campaign have been deceptive and can only have been constructed against a view that we, the electorate, are stupid. Initially Iain Gray, in a shameless attempt to re-create their success at the Westminster elections last year, again raised the spectre of Thatcherism and the …

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Milliband, Balls and Gray (and Ulster mercenaries..).. try some Rough Wooing…

As the latest opinion polls, quoted on Political Betting, begin to indicate a shift directly to the SNP from Scottish Labour, Labour react. That’s from Hamish MacDonell in the Spectator: Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party’s disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party’s teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only …

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Scotland getting interesting…

Political Betting reports on the latest Scottish opinion poll. And those committed Scottish Nationalists report it in the Scottish Sun….(Me I’d have told Murdoch to shove it…) So ten points up – if true this could mean: a) An SNP majority (the voting system was precisely defined to prevent this…) b) An independence referendum. c) Tangentially the LibDem wipeout predicted would surely scupper the Westminster coalition (I’m hearing whispers that Salmond might even be planning to visit Orkney and Shetland…) …

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Salmond – the comeback kid…Scottish Lib Dems becoming a relic?

In contrast to Wales, where a pretty healthy Labour lead is being confirmed regularly, things are tightening in Scotland. UK Polling Report gives the latest from TNS-BMRB. Holyrood Constituency: CON 15% LAB 38% LDEM 7% SNP 37% Holyrood Regional: CON 14% LAB 35% LDEM 8% SNP 35% Green 5% Two things stand out: 1) It’s tight at the top. 2) The LibDems. 1) To put the Poll in context there’s been a fairly consistent 10 point odd lead for Labour …

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UK splits over university fees and taxation

This is turning out to be quite a week for the fissiparous tendency in the British body politic. As students demonstrated against the prospect of 80% cuts in tuition funding throughout the nation, it was the Welsh Assembly government which stole the march on the others by promising to pay the difference between the present fees and the £6 to 9,000 a year universities will soon be able to charge. What’s more, the subsidy will extend to Welsh students studying anywhere in …

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