In contrast to Wales, where a pretty healthy Labour lead is being confirmed regularly, things are tightening in Scotland.
UK Polling Report gives the latest from TNS-BMRB.
Holyrood Constituency: CON 15% LAB 38% LDEM 7% SNP 37%
Holyrood Regional: CON 14% LAB 35% LDEM 8% SNP 35% Green 5%
Two things stand out:
1) It’s tight at the top.
2) The LibDems.
1) To put the Poll in context there’s been a fairly consistent 10 point odd lead for Labour in most polls in the last year. From a Nationalist view we hoped that as the Election nears the relative capability of the First Minister cf. the Prospective Labour First Minister, Iain Gray, would close the gap.
Iain Gray is not a bad bloke – volunteer in Mozambique, a dozen years working for Oxfam..it’s just against Salmond he looks weak.
2) This is almost as important (To Westminster politics as well as Holyrood).
The Lib Dems hold 16 of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, 11 of 59 Scottish seats in the UK Parliament (of 57 LibDems in total) . Last time for Holyrood outcome was 16.2% in the constituency vote and 11.3% on the List. If the Constituency vote does half then the two remaining mainland Highland seats will surely fall to SNP (with maybe one compensatory on list – blasted boundary changes make things a little difficult). In the North East then both Lib Dem seats could also fall. In the Borders the one remaining constituency seat is also surely doomed….and so on – indeed it is quite feasible that the LibDems could end up with Orkney, Shetland, an Edinburgh and a Fife seat with maybe 4/5 list seats. With the LibDem objections to the Coalition at Westminster concentrated in Scotland (Campbell and Kennedy) would such a result lead to a review of the coalition and perhaps even a revival of the old independence faction of the Scottish Lib Dems??
Update – I forgot to mention a significant Lib Dem resignation. – a list candidate now standing as an Independent. Brian blethers about this and some other resignations.