Welcome to the Ulsterisation of Scottish politics…

The following is written by Aidan Kerr. On Hogmanay night, in the dying hours of 2014, I published on my blog the following article entitled ‘The Ulsterisation of Scottish Politics’. As the SNP tsunami approached I could see the politics of this wee country altering. It was to be drawn across constitutional lines in a similar fashion to another wee country to our west. Today, ulsterisation deepens. As we walk towards May’s Scottish Parliament elections we have the Scottish Conservatives …

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“How deep is Nicola Sturgeon and Kezia Dudgale’s social democratic commitment?”

I don’t share David’s view of the Spanish election result. The most remarkable thing (apart from the low turnout increased turnout, actually) is how poorly Podemos performed compared to expectations earlier in the year. The limited returns from Syriza’s pitch in Greece perhaps coloured expectations? Scotland by contrast got its play for freedom in earlier, with a promise of radical change which set the country alight, and in the process all but burning down Labour’s Scottish mansion. In the great …

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Corbyn is not Labour’s real headache, Labour is…

Just putting this here… In general, the paradox is that the political argument for [Scottish] independence is perhaps even stronger than it was a year ago but the economic argument, a weakness even in 2014, is incontrovertibly weaker than it was 12 months ago. No-one is much thinking about that right now but at some point some nationalists are going to have devote some thought to these matters. At some point the Labour party is going to have to come to …

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Corbyn has a long way to go before he can spend any political capital on dealing with his NI rebels

Interesting piece from Siobhan Fenton in the News Statesman looking at the decision of the local UK Labour Party in principle to stand for elections in Northern Ireland… Siobhan calls it a ‘crisis’ which it might be if anyone in the broader Labour party takes notice… The Northern Irish branch are currently inviting local people to come forward as potential candidates and describe themselves as “snowed under” with interest. Labour’s neglect of and disinterest in Northern Irish members for decades …

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#Slugger15: What were your highlights and lowlights of 2015?

SLUGGER REVIEW: As we get to the nub of the year and Slugger’s end of the year review (there are still some tickets left), do let us have your suggestions, nominations, or simple reminders of things we might otherwise have forgotten? It’s been busier than you probably think…

“this is a power for which the Scots have been craving…”

So David touched on an intriguing ‘argument’ between Sinn Fein and the SDLP over the former’s use of the Legislative Consent Motion in such a way as to nullify any discussion of the proposed bill (an indigenous deal let us remember) at Assembly and in Westminster. This is effectively a measure constructed in OFMdFM and sent straight via DSD, to an Order in Council in Westminster and presumably on to the Queen for approval. Beyond the two parties in Stormont …

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Corbyn’s dire polling figures give Tories (and the SNP) huge political latitude

Yesterday there were five council by-elections in which both Tories and Labour stood. The overall swing to Conservatives was estimated at 3.8%. Hardly definitive judgement on Corbyn’s leadership, but at a time when the Tories are running a horse and cart through the benefit system hardly grounds for optimism either.

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Will a #Brexit trigger an #IndyRef2?

Fascinating as ever John Curtice looks at what polling says about Scottish attitudes towards Brexit, and much of it hinges on the SNP’s nationalist pro EU outlook… …in Scotland, those wanting to remain substantially outnumber those who wish to leave. Survation reported as many as 51 per cent said they would vote to remain, while just 29 per cent would opt to leave. More recently in a poll published last week, YouGov have reported almost identical figures; 51 per cent …

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SNP will continue to take Scotland on a steady fiscally ‘conservative’ course…

Very perceptive take from Professor Paul Cairney on where the SNP is after their conference. The reality is there will be no second push for a referendum until the answer is likely to be significantly different (an expression of doubt that the new converts to the SNP would trundle happily into the Yes lobby this time). Nor will there be any sharp move towards the Nordic model of social democracy. (For a start the money is not there.) Paul notes clear fiscal policy …

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State of the State: “Northern Ireland appears to be pausing at a junction.”

Deloitte released its State of the State report today which examines the structure and levels of government across the UK. The 42 page report outlines public spending levels and the impact of cuts across the country in the last financial year. Whilst the report does look at the UK as a whole (I would encourage you to look through the report) it does devote some pages to Northern Ireland’s economic performance and the challenges we face. Being the public service …

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Labour’s choice of its enemies

LABOUR IN SEARCH OF A SOUL: Labour has a lack of clarity about its own morality and its own purpose. It needs to become a united fighting force again. At this moment, it’s hard to imagine it trying to solve these problems any time soon.

Scots may not be quite ready for another IndyRef…

Interesting from the Glasgow Herald… A third of Scots would be less likely to vote SNP if the party promises another independence referendum in its Holyrood election manifesto, according to a new poll. The Survation poll for the Daily Mail found that such a pledge would make 31% more likely to vote for the party while 36% said it would make no difference. It comes after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday said the SNP will set out the timescale for …

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Is Scotland really about to make lying (by politicians) illegal? #Awkward

Now, in Northern Ireland we know loads about lying politicians. But whilst we acquiesce in their fabrications (and wonder whether our Legislative Assembly members will ever see another clean shirt) Scotland is well ahead of us, apparently. Over there, lying by elected politicians may be about to be made illegal. Punishable by being made to face the electors again. [Erm, not so sure that actually qualifies as a viable punishment in Northern Ireland? – Ed] Okay. So, political activists on …

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There are lessons from Northern Ireland for the SNP’s row over Nick Robinson and the BBC

The row between the BBC’s outgoing political editor Nick Robinson and the former Scotland first minister Alex Salmond  reminds me of experience in  Northern Ireland during the Troubles  where there was a similar lack of fundamental agreement about the political destiny of the country. Nick’s row arose out of questions he put to Alex at a news conference towards the end of the referendum campaign. The SNP were playing  down the theme  which turned out to be the clincher in …

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The drive for independence suspected in new boost for Scots language. Sounds familiar?

The Financial Times (£ paywall) which is so good at making its limited space for non-financial themes count, reports a new boost for the Scots language which the writer Mure Dickie suspects is part of the longer term drive for independence.  In language policy, the parallels as well as contrasts  with both Irish and Ulster Scots hardly need much spelling out. But I hope you will – enjoy, is that the word? – the distortions  of  what we think of as …

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Should the Scottish Parliament and the Assemblies in Cardiff and Belfast control ” their” BBC?

The three wee Celts in the precariously devolved  UK have got together – convened wouldn’t you know it – by the Scots, to agitate for a bigger slice of the BBC licence fee during the coming round of the BBC Charter review. Northern Ireland’s culture minister Caral Ni Chuilin  declares: “The BBC must continue to embrace and further develop its commitment to its public obligations and the occasion of the charter renewal must be seen as an opportunity to deliver …

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Abortion law is pawn in a Tory-SNP power game

The Herald reports that the Conservatives are thinking about devolving abortion law to Scotland where a strong Catholic lobby is opposed to the 1967 Act. What the point of doing it unless the aim is to repeal it? Not necessarily apparently. It’s really about the power game between Westminster and Holyrood, not about little matters such as rights, ethics, women and embryos. Earlier this year, the Scottish Government quietly dropped a demand for new powers over abortion, saying it had other …

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