Scots may not be quite ready for another IndyRef…

Interesting from the Glasgow Herald

A third of Scots would be less likely to vote SNP if the party promises another independence referendum in its Holyrood election manifesto, according to a new poll.

The Survation poll for the Daily Mail found that such a pledge would make 31% more likely to vote for the party while 36% said it would make no difference.

It comes after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday said the SNP will set out the timescale for a possible second referendum on independence in its manifesto for next year’s Holyrood election.

Scotland’s First Minister confirmed the party’s manifesto will include more details on the circumstances under which another vote might be ”appropriate”.

The study also found a slim majority of Scots still support the union.

More than half (51%) of those questioned said Scotland should not be an independent country while 49% backed independence, when undecided voters were removed.

Slim to non-existent I’d say. But still, many of the tough economic issues blocking Scotland’s path to freedom haven’t changed. And the oil price has to be a strong disincentive to calling one too quickly.

Whilst I’m sceptical, I’ve seen a fair few Scots nationalists suggest Corbyn could roll back some of the gains of the Westminster election in next year’s Scottish Parliamentary elections.

The people are nothing, if not volatile and vulnerable to good bottom up campaigning.

  • mjh

    This really doesn’t tell us anything, Mick

    Maybe the third of Scots who are less likely to vote SNP if the party promises a referendum had no intention of voting SNP anyway.

    And maybe the 36% who say it would make them more likely to vote for them are already committed SNP supporters.

    In fact I rather suspect this is largely the case.

  • Robin Keogh

    I don’t see anything there that we had not probably figured out for ourselves tbh.

  • kensei

    As per mjh, the likelihood is that this simply reflects the current status quo.
    There are already reports that Sturgeon will include it with a series of conditions in the manifesto – my bet is on a split EU exit vote or 60% in favour in the polls for a sustained period (at least 6 months, maybe a year).

    That essentially kills the issue for the next election – it makes it hard for either the pro-indy part of her party to argue – why do you think you’ll win with no change – or the unionists to attack it – why do you think you know better than the Scottish people. The political danger lies in NOT defining what the triggers are.

    Corbyn could potentially help pull Scotland back, but he and the discussion on labour’s future remains very English focused – not many Scots in his team, because there aren’t many left. The state of the Scottish party means it’ll take a bit longer for him to make headway, I think.

  • Ian James Parsley

    All sounds about right to me.

    I’m also bewildered by the assumption that Scotland is Labour’s “to win back”. Assuming another SNP win, that’ll be three in a row (two, probably, with an outright majority)!

  • Sergiogiorgio

    Whilst I appreciate the average life expectancy in Scotland is on the low end (deep fried mars bars and Irn Bru) who knew a “generation” could mean 5 years.

  • submariner

    Scotland will be an independent country within a generation that is a certainty

  • Steve Larson

    Do Labour in Scotland have the resources to mount a campaign on the doorstep.

    Seems they are significantly outnumbered by the SNP.

    A referendum shouldn’t occur for at least another ten years.

    Do it when it is winnable and keep wearing down the Union in Westminster. The Tories will play their part in that as well.

  • Virginia

    No, that is not going to happen.

  • Scots Anorak

    There are actually figures for SNP supporters over at Scot Goes Pop (it’s not letting me link to it for some reason): “4.1% of people currently planning to vote SNP say they would be less likely to vote for the party if another referendum is promised”.

    Don’t think the SNP need be too concerned on that front. More of a problem, I suspect, will be pressure from new members for an expeditious second referendum that might come too soon to be won.