I’ve been sceptical of the minor shifts in party support noted previously in the monthly, Sunday Business Post commissioned, Red C polls, and I remain sceptical, but the result of the April polling are in. In first preference voting intentions the main movements are – Fianna Fail up 5 points to 38%, Fine Gael down 2 to 23% and SF down 3 to 8%.. Labour stay at 11%, the Green Party at 7%, PDs at 4%. RTÉ are in no …
As the BBC report, David Trimble seems to have used the launch of Reverend Brian Kennaway’s book The Orange Order – A Tradition Betrayed to try to settle a few scores, accusing his enemies within unionism of seeing “the Orange Order, Portadown District and the Drumcree issue as a battering ram that they would use to destroy the Agreement”. The DUP’s David Simpson, in response, accused Trimble of having “manipulated the institution in many ways to get the leadership of …
Also in the Belfast Telegraph, Eric Waugh puts forward a couple of questions that a critic of the Agreement would want answers to before devolved powers were to return. He touches on the policing paradox and argues that there is a need for “a fundamental re-examination of the 1998 machinery.”From the Belfast Telegraph article – The other weakness of the Trimble years was the total absence of Ministerial solidarity in the Executive. We never had a Government which spoke like …
I don’t think that he’s one of the optimists Henry McDonald referred to, but in the Belfast Telegraph Brian Walker produces an intriguing twist to the November 24th deadline. According to his report, “although this interim Assembly can be wound up on November 24, the Assembly suspended on October 2003 remains technically in being.” Which could leave open the possibilty of another chapter even if the book is officially closed…Briajn Walker notes that Peter Hain declined to pass on any …
In the Guardian Henry McDonald is less than impressed with those who favour an optimistic reading of the runes for November [btw I think he meant a 180 degree turn, not 360 – Ed]. As well as arguing that the proposed consultation by the DUP is likely to produce a negative response, he returns to a suggestion he made previously, in November 2005, as Mick noted at the time. Pete Baker
I mentioned this previously, prior to the actual publication of the 10th IMC report, but there’s a real paradox in Peter Hain’s welcoming of the Provisional IRA, and in his view Sinn Féin, “stamping out criminality” while at the same time encouraging Sinn Féin to support the police – NI Questions in the Commons today Mr. Hain: On the hon. Gentleman’s point about criminality, it is now clear that the Provisional IRA – and, therefore, its political link, Sinn Fein …
Mick previously mentioned the long war against criminality narrative in the IMC report, and a main area of focus of the report is what has previously been clarified, by NIO Security Minister Shaun Woodward, as the complex assessments of distinguishing between criminality by individual members for their own gain and criminality carried out by members which is authorised by the organisation. With those assessments in mind, the section relating to the current activity, of PIRA, is worth looking at more …
No doubt with an eye on Noel McAdams article, the Belfast Telegraph has a look ahead towards that November 24 deadline and assesses the DUP’s apparent new attitude.. and what it could mean for the prospects of successful devolution. One thing that is certain [about the only thing that’s certain – Ed], as Mick pointed out, is the necessary tentativeness of the speculation. From the Belfast Telegraph – If the DUP is convinced that the IRA has abandoned criminality, as …
Perhaps not.. it follows, mostly, the earlier line.. but I did wonder who the BBC were quoting in the headline of this report.. it seems that they’re quoting one of their own journalists, Vincent Kearney, who has either read the IMC report, before it’s published, or is relying on someone who has – it’s not clear which. But the most interesting point of the apparent leak is on a point the IMC made in their previous report in February.. a …
Filling the gap between the IMC presenting their latest, the 10th, report to the Irish and British governments and the rest of us being able to see it, on Wednesday, Secretary of State for Wales and Northern Ireland Peter Hain has, once again, been accentuating the positive [expect similiar statements to those in February to be made in the days ahead].. though Peter Hain doesn’t seem to have explained what he means by the IRA “cracking down” on criminal activity.. …
The blandly titled Northern Ireland Bill announced by Peter Hain on Tuesday and setting out the procedure for recalling the Assembly has been published on the parliament website, containing 6 clauses and 3 schedules [text of Bill here], and explanatory notes here, and it does include a provision, in the event that an Executive can be formed, to delay the Assembly elections until May 2008. If an Executive isn’t formed the BBC predict it could cost £3.5million to close the …
In the Irish Times, Vincent Browne expresses his doubts about how inclusive, and how wise, the remembrance on Monday, of Easter 1916, actually was – “The city looked great, the GPO imposing, the Army drilled and disciplined, military music not too bad, fine weather, great crowds, no speeches and the rioters took a day off.”.. But.. but..He doesn’t provide his answers to the questions he raises.. but they are questions worth asking – It may be true that had the …
As the BBC have reported, the Secretary of State for Wales and Northern Ireland, Peter Hain, has made his “the future of Northern Ireland” statement to the House of Commons. Announcing his intention to bring forward an emergency Bill on 20 April, with only a half a dozen clauses, to recall the Assembly on 15 May, as previously announced. He repeatedly references devolution in Scotland and Wales as role-models, but there’s not a great deal of detail so far except …
The Irish Times’ Frank Millar has a closer look at the joint statement from Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Prime Minister Tony Blair, and the subsequent clarification from Secretary of State for Wales and Northern Ireland Peter Hain. Frank Millar’s interpretation seems to echo that of the Belfast Telegraph’s Brian Walker [although the emphasis is different] and he highlights that with the mixed messages coming from the governments on how they envisage moving beyond that November 24th deadline, “After all the …
RTÉ may have jumped to conclusions with this report, but it is a move that seems to have taken the UUP by surprise. The BBC clarifies the situation somewhat. While the DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson, speaking on Talkback, described the move as responding to an invitation from Paul Murphy to make a presentation to the British-Irish Interparliamentary Body in Killarney, County Kerry on 24 April. Pete Baker
It would be remiss not to note that 8 years ago today some, by now, very familiar statements were being made.. although not necessarily by the same people.. Pete Baker
Well it’s been predicted for some time, Slugger noted an IT report in August last year, but the latest reports are that it will be announced officially tomorrow – Lady Paisley, Lord Browne, Lord Morrow.. and, of course, Lord Trimble. Update That’s Baroness Paisley of St George’s.. apparently.. Pete Baker
The BBC are reporting that the Assembly next speaker is about to be appointed by the NIO, since Lord Alderdice is otherwise engaged, and in what seems to be somewhat of a party-political trend, that speaker is to be former Alliance Party deputy leader Eileen Bell who has already announced that she will not stand in the next [If there is one – Ed] assembly elections. Pete Baker
An interesting, and to a large extent persuasive, line of argument from Ed Moloney in the Irish Times. Asking – “So, who killed Denis Donaldson and why?”[subs req]. He, perhaps surprisingly to his critics, believes that “The IRA leadership is probably telling the truth when through its nom de guerre, P O’Neill, it denies involvement, at least any ‘authorised’ involvement.”He begins by pointing out that the narrative being promoted initially by some, that of an attempt to undermine the Blair-Ahern …
In the Belfast Telegraph, Brian Walker is less than impressed with the lack of detail in yesterday’s joint statement from Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Prime Minister Tony Blair, arguing that “the ‘stick’ of green-tinged direct rule would seem to hold few terrors for the DUP and the ‘carrot’ of committees by itself is far too unappetising to tempt anybody else”. It’s difficult to detect anything, threat [or] promise, in the PMs’ framework that creates a dynamic for breaking the deadlock. …
