Trouble at Alliance’s (Lisburn and) Castlereagh mill…

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Oh dear. Going to war election is causing all manner of ruckles inside various political parties, even Alliance. Two councillors Geraldine Rice and Vasundhara Kamble have left the party over allegations of racism and ageism. Rice goes back a long way with Alliance. It’s true, as she says, she played a rearguard action in Peter Robinson’s small state model of a local council in Castlereagh from her first election in 1989 as a local champion for Carryduff (when John D …

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In dealing with the past, favoured treatment for soldiers can only end in tears

The Times (£) reports that a decision by the British government to review the potential caseload against soldiers for actions during the Troubles includes a proposal to set a time limit  on the investigations.  The move is a response to a campaign by Conservative MPs and peers already angered by what they regard as over-zealous prosecutions after the Iraq war. It is understood that the new legislation, which is due to be drafted by the Northern Ireland Office and the …

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“if Sinn Fein fails to increase its vote and share of Assembly seats under Michelle O’Neill’s leadership…”

With a stagnating vote evident in the last NI Assembly election – just 8 months ago – and a reduced number of seats available this time out, in the Belfast Telegraph Anthony McIntyre highlights a potential problem for Sinn Féin in their election gamble. There is nothing complicated about the DUP pitch: despite the democratic veneer, the appointment of a non-martial politician to lead Sinn Fein in the north, the caudillo and his camarilla are still pulling the strings. A clear declaration …

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The Supreme Court rules that devolved assembly consent is not legally required for Brexit. But the political battle is only just beginning

. So  the Westminster Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 – but on what exactly and how often until Brexit is achieved?  The battle has only just begun. It’s  bad news for nationalists everywhere.  The Court ruled that the consent of the Scottish Parliament, the National Assembly of Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly is not legally required.  The argument put forward by Sinn Fein, the SDLP and in the courts by Raymond McCord that under the GFA the …

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“Sinn Fein’s northern operation risks becoming an under-performing branch office in a Dublin-led organisation”

Interesting piece by Patrick Murphy in the Irish News on Saturday (it’s well worth reading in full). Not least because he lays out some of the key assumptions of Sinn Fein’s plan to re-unite the island, some of which, like “cross-border bodies confirm the legitimacy of the border” demonstrate the party’s enduring disdain for a pragmatic to the matter. But I think this is the key passage: The party hopes that Stormont’s future style and content of governance will reflect …

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UK Government: “Clearly, any form of joint authority would be incompatible with the consent principle [of the Belfast Agreement].”

A short BBC report points to an interesting exchange today in the House of Lords where the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Northern Ireland Office and Scotland Office, Lord Dunlop, poured a bucket of cold water on the suggestion that “joint authority” could be an option if the relevant parties fail to form an Executive following the Assembly election in March. From Hansard Lord Lexden (Con): My Lords, this is a grave moment for part of our country—our precious United Kingdom, …

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Theresa May’s aim of free trade with the EU outside the single market is the way to avoid a hard border. The Irish should start lobbying their EU partners now.

We will put our precious Union at the heart of what we do.. We will strengthen our relationship between the four nations of the UK..   I hope for the same spirit of unity, especially in Northern Ireland and that the parties will establish a new relationship as soon as possible..  The devolved administrations will be fully engaged (in the Brexit process). That is why we have set up a joint ministerial committee.. We have received papers from Scotland and …

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Solutions are negotiable, if there’s the political will

There’s something stereotypically Irish about a battle between two parties who are not competing for the same votes, were in one sense on the same side  – i.e. the same government – and will end up more or less where we are after the Assembly election. Incisive though it is, Mick’s analysis defers the subject of finding  a way through the standoff for another time. In my own pitch to CNN, I noted the switch in morale between the DUP …

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Is greater Sinn Fein militancy the right answer to wider voter disillusionment?

Chris Donnelly’s analysis of Sinn Fein’s position in the Irish News is welcome as an all- too rare piece of criticism from an independent-minded sympathiser. The DUP would do well to emulate it. But self- criticism has a long way to go. The hope must be that behind the scenes amid the bluster of an election campaign, it will continue and produce realistic positions in the end. Chris does not go far as to say that the party has reached …

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“What was done jointly by the first and deputy first minister cannot be undone unilaterally”

The BBC has a report on the “detailed letter” the Northern Ireland Assembly Speaker, the DUP’s Robin Newton, has sent to all MLAs ahead of a no confidence motion on Monday.  It had been reported in December that he intended to send the letter to opposition MLAs.  From the BBC report   He wrote that, five days before Mrs Foster’s statement, the Speaker’s office received a “valid notice seeking the recall of the assembly” which bore the signatures of both the …

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Corbyn against @UKLabour’s sleeping base in Northern Ireland playing an official part in #AE17

Just in from the Labour Party in NI stalwart, Boyd Black… Jeremy Corbyn has said it is ‘extremely unlikely’ there will be official Labour candidates in the Stormont Assembly elections. This comment is unhelpful. It is also not surprising, as the promised official review by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) has been disgracefully delayed, in part by last year’s party leadership election. Since it is the NEC that will make the decision about us fighting elections (albeit with a …

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One up to Sinn Fein and two up to the Fresh Start parties for framing the media debate early…

This is important, I think, if only as a portent for what’s about to come. I imagine both parties will be pleased with this: not least because at 23 minutes, aside from the commentator’s corner slot, this was the only feature on The View last night. Mairtin O Muilleoir’s channelling of his younger early eighties self as an angry young councillor on Belfast City Council will have been superbly exhilarating for his party’s support. Motivation will matter hugely in this …

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“a strategy which now views the very presence of devolved government in Northern Ireland as a bargaining chip with the Government and with the DUP.”

In the News Letter, Sam McBride provides an astute assessment of the “profound consequences” of Sinn Féin’s decision to resign Martin McGuinness from the Northern Ireland Executive Office.  From the News Letter article   Mr Adams now appears to envisage yet another round of ‘crisis talks’ in Belfast in attempt to extract further concessions from the DUP and the Government, which Sinn Fein can then sell to its supporters in order to justify its continued position in a power-sharing arrangement …

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“The whole issue has, unfortunately, become party political…”

In the Belfast Telegraph, Conservative MP, Laurence Robertson, who chairs the House of Commons Select Committee on Northern Ireland Affairs, asks some pertinent questions about the ‘crisis’ over the RHI scheme. What would [Arlene Foster’s] resignation achieve? Who would take over? Would this stabilise the workings of the Assembly and the Executive, or throw it into turmoil? If some parties want an inquiry held into the RHI, then fine. But by way of an analogy, if an inquiry were held …

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“Sinn Féin will bring this ongoing and totally unacceptable state of affairs to an end.”

This is the latest statement from the Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams… “The DUP leader has thus far refused to stand aside, without prejudice, pending a preliminary report by an independent investigation into the RHI scandal. “If the first minister does not take the actions that society desires and deserves and which a sustainable process of change requires, then Sinn Féin will bring this ongoing and totally unacceptable state of affairs to an end.” Newton Emerson also noted this little detail… …

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#RHI: Finance Minister hints we need to buckle down for a fortnight (so bring popcorn)

Here, go out and get the popcorn in. We’ve another two weeks of this free entertainment since Mairtin O Muilleoir confirmed to UTV’s Vicki Hawthorn tonight that he doesn’t like the cut of Simon Hamilton’s jib (even though he’s not even seen it yet): Finance Minister @newbelfast also says he doesn't think there is any chance the assembly will be recalled next week. @UTVNews — Vicki Hawthorne (@Vicki_Hawthorne) January 5, 2017 The most charitable conclusion about what’s going on at …

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Soapbox: “…row in behind public opinion or protect their partners in Government”

With every day that passes, the path for those seeking to block a full public inquiry into the diabolical RHI scheme is getting narrower. Many parties have suggested various forms of investigations and inquiries , but what is becoming abundantly clear is that only one form of inquiry can get to the truth, and that is a full public inquiry under the Inquiries Act 2005. That is why the motion constructed by Cllr Ruth Patterson, which comes before Belfast City …

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An election would be an abuse of democracy. Knuckle down after the holiday and learn how to do modern politics.

Even with a fairer wind than we experienced since 1998 , it was always going to be difficult to reconcile  natural contention in politics with good cross community government. If all-party government worked well, the Assembly would have very little to do. If government failed, it would only amplify the differences. The select committees were supposed to supply critical scrutiny but  lacked skills and were too often the creatures of the dominant party.  In an Executive governing largely by rival …

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Telling detail of #RHI remains the place the political gold lies…

Another Christmas, another crisis? Yes, but this one is different from Stormont’s Christmas crises past.  For a start, we now have an opposition. Far from a perfect arrangement. It doesn’t allow the electorate to kick the bums out, as they say in the US, for instance. But it does mean there’s a large group of politicians not solely invested in making government work. Rather, their ability to grow political capital now depends on their ability to: 1, knock big holes in government policy; …

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Draft of what Arlene might have said ( admittedly a bit late in the day)

“Mr Speaker, Now that I have gone through the narrative of the RHI scheme, I want to come to the heart of the matter of a motion  of no confidence.  I absolutely refute the charge that I lied about cancelling it or any other aspect of it . My party supports me. But now other parties are challenging my veracity including, in terms, our Sinn Fein partners in government. We agree that a judicial inquiry is needed to clear the …

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