“Installing a new-style apparatchik makes perfect sense for an interim period…”

Hard to know what to make of Michelle O’Neill as SF’s ‘leader of the north’ (apart from the fact she’s currently struggling to get a word in past ‘the boss’).  Fionnuala O’Connor has been mulling it over in her Irish News column: Shuffling the performers may be no more than a holding pattern. What was the spirit of the McGuinness legacy? To go by his last act, as much to stay out of Stormont as go back in, as much …

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Gerry Adams has been allowed to fill the vacuum at the heart of the talks

Only the most basic information has emerged so far  out of the set piece statements from the  parties. Arlene Foster’s offer of a return to the Executive “without pre-conditions” and do sensible things like passing the budget  was never going to be enough to draw in Sinn Fein, whose  whole position was all about setting conditions. If she was ever going to give satisfaction on matching Sinn Fein’s  unmanageably long list of demands, why not give  some specific declarations of …

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Gerry Adams invokes the fresh memory of Martin McGuinness and issues an ultimatum on the talks

“Sinn Fein opposed to any extension of Stormont talks ahead of Monday’s deadline – ‘We will bury our friend tomorrow and move directly from his graveside to do our utmost to get Assembly restored’ Speaking in Newry on the eve of Martin McGuinness’s funeral, the Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has been talking the talk of ultimatums. Lest anyone thinks Sinn Fein has been distracted this week, he disabuses them of the idea that the immediate period of mourning for …

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Gerry Adams ups the ante on Unity, just as it comes under fresh critical examination

 Gerry Adams knows  exactly  how to deploy  sweet reasonableness as a weapon and end up  with a perfect circle of  obstruction. He had had several “businesslike, friendly engagements” with DUP leader Arlene Foster since the talks began, and he had “no reason to doubt” she was innocent of accusations over the “cash for ash” Renewable Heat Initiative which precipitated this month’s Northern Assembly election. However, the affair needed to be “properly scrutinised”. Why block a resolution of the impasse if …

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Five questions over the future of Unionism after Mike Nesbitt steps down

History is unlikely to be very kind to Mike Nesbitt’s tenure as Ulster Unionist leader. The 2017 Assembly election looked to many observers like the UUP’s long-awaited big chance. It was not to be. To be fair, the UUP was struggling long before Nesbitt took over at the top. It can also be said that he tried pretty much everything. He led them firstly as an Executive party and then into Opposition. When he first entered politics, it was at …

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Could the Tories Save Northern Ireland’s Squeezed Middle?

There are no two ways of looking at last week’s Assembly election results: mission accomplished for Sinn Féin. Manners have been put on Arlene Foster. Foster called the unionist faithful to rally around her to ward off the nationalist crocodile, the bastard child of Papism and the IRA, but in doing so she built a temple to Sobek, the Egyptian croc-headed god of fertility and the army, at which lapsed Catholics turned out in near-record numbers to worship. It is …

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In a second battle of the turnouts, who thinks united unionism would win and a settlement would follow?

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After #AE17, the DUP…

Last Thursday changed everything and nothing for the DUP. Gone is the petition of concern. Gone too is the large buffer of seats with Sinn Fein. What hasn’t change is the outcome. They still have the First Minister’s position and with the UUP’s downsizing are more dominant in unionism. On the other hand, in the course of less than a year, Mrs Foster has overturned recent patterns of nationalist and unionist turnout in a way that has cost her both in seats and …

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Joint authority? “What on earth have you been smoking?”

In the Irish Times Newton Emerson takes issue with two of the talking points being promoted by the SDLP and Sinn Féin – EU ‘special status’ for Northern Ireland and ‘joint authority’.  From the Irish Times Northern nationalism has an alternative to Brexit – special status for the North within the EU. Nobody has a clue what this means but at least Brussels has been asked if it will consider the possibility (it has said no). Northern nationalism also has …

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Breaking… Brokenshire gambles with high risk threat of a new election, cutting through opening party maneouvres

  New “James Brokenshire warns parties must agree or face second snap election” Oh well done James,  you’ve decide to open with the joker, He’s decided to match  Sinn Fein’s bottom line with one of his own – incidentally going against the advice of his predecessor Theresa Villiers  who called  for an extension of the three week period. Theresa May has form, with hard ball as an opening move. Quite a gamble. Will anyone pick it up in time?  This …

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After #AE17, Sinn Féin…

Sinn Fein has delivered an object lesson in how to do disruptive politics. A classic example of Tzu Sun’s famous aphorism that: “If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest.” No one, outside the party, expected or was prepared for what followed. There were two aspects to the success of its campaign. One was seizing the prime opportunity out of the DUP’s …

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Playacting will be hard to distinguish from authenticity in the early phases of the negotiations

The three regional papers have had a great few months. With so much to feed off, that comes as no surprise. I hope it boosts their circulations permanently. They deserve credit  for editorially keeping their heads, the nationalist Irish News, unionist Newsletter and let’s- be- sensible unionist- with a-look across -the -divide Belfast Telegraph.  Remarkably the slide to collapse  and  the historic election result haven’t  driven them to go blindly partisan. This is good leadership, in both senses of the …

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“No surrender” from Arlene, as she calls for a united unionist party on the eve of negotiations

Arlene’s call for a single unionist party in the Belfast Telegraph is a clear sign she’s going make fight of it.    Coming on the eve of first stage negotiations, it suggests a different  focus – defiance.  The move is out of kilter with the one action that would false foot Sinn Fein or get them back in government – standing aside as first minister even temporarily. Ideally, I would like to see a renewed attempt to create unionist unity where …

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After #AE17, the UUP…

UUP gavel

“When the history of this election written the first word is going to be ‘transfers’…” said Mark Carruthers of Mike Nesbitt’s only real contribution to a tumultuous campaign. The real problem the UUs had was its lack of resonant messages on the government record. However, once said, transferring cannot be unsaid.  It’s the clear logic of anyone going into government to power share. And it wasn’t universally unpopular. The party increased its vote like almost everyone else. But by nothing like enough. …

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“we’re all a bit punch drunk already. But it’s the only show in town.”

Few people have as close up a perspective on what divides the DUP and Sinn Fein as David Gordon: Given the Sinn Fein electoral surge, you can guarantee that unionist unity and unionist turnout will be major themes of the next Assembly poll. And for all its damaging losses last week, it has still, if anything, tightened its grip on unionism, given the UUP’s woes and the TUV’s failure to make inroads. The last DUP-Sinn Fein Executive collapsed in the most spectacular and …

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“concepts and terms like “special status” give rise to serious concerns for other EU partners about precedents that might be set elsewhere”

A much needed, for some, lesson in the real politik of negotiations with other EU states, in regard to the UK leaving the EU, from the Irish Government Minister for Foreign Affairs, Charlie Flanagan, in a Dáil written answer last week. 457.Deputy Darragh O’Brien asked the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade if the need for a special status for Northern Ireland in view of Brexit has been placed on the agenda and discussed formally at any EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting; and if …

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After #AE17, the Alliance party…

Alliance leading change banner

A few years ago, I recall Belfast based lobbyist Brendan Mulgrew describing Naomi Long as “a full colour politician in a black and white world”. And that was a few years before she took on the top job on from David Ford. Just over a year into the job, and Northern Ireland’s liberal party have their best result since 1987. That’s a very long way from the nadir of 2003, when it was lucky to retain its six seats on …

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All very exciting, Sandra and Sean. But in the cold light of day the election changed nothing except dreams and nightmares

Now that  the election is  over, all the  politicians have turned into commentators   tweeting all over the place, giving pious little lectures about what the other guy should do now. Not a word about what they themselves should do to reach agreement.  In the cold light of day the undoubted Sinn Fein victory makes neither them nor the DUP more amenable to compromise: rather the reverse. The mutual veto is rock solid. The centre ground was rescued from oblivion at …

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Despite going to the polls today, the Northern Ireland voters will have no say in the outcome. The two governments’ hands- off approach to Stormont will have to change

People  going to the polls today are being sold badly short. They do not  know whether they are electing members to an Assembly that will function again. Northern Ireland is facing not an existential crisis but a failure of politicians to work a workable system consistently. The trouble is that no effective means of calling them to account has yet been developed.  Most people, the public and politicians alike don’t seem to realise how appalling this looks to outsiders and …

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New Brexit bombshell. Irish citizen rights to live and work in Great Britain may change within a month, even for northerners. The answer so far- take out a British passport if you can, quick

My thanks to commenter Jag for drawing attention to a quite a different Brexit  bombshell from No 10 in the Daily Telegraph. The Prime Minister is expected to say that EU citizens who travel to Britain after she triggers Article 50 will no longer have the automatic right to stay in the UK permanently. They will instead be subject to migration curbs after Britain leaves the European Union, which could include a new visa regime and restricted access to benefits. …

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