Negotiations

If one last heave after Xmas fails, the people should vote to dismantle the mutual DUP/ Sinn veto

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The Newsletter editorial is full of alarm and self pity. Its  vehemence is slightly surprising as the paper has been no critical supporter of the DUP. It has been highlighting  their weaknesses throughout. So it  cannot  be greeted just  by schadenfreude.  It needs a considered answer.    For three years, no Conservative and Unionist (as they sometimes style themselves) minister or prime minister has uttered a word of criticism of Sinn Fein. Think about that. The crisis in the NHS …

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Deal or No Deal- and it’s looking more and more like the latter – the UK could still leave the EU on 31 October

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Despite rumours to the contrary, this week will find it hard to match the turbulence of last week.  It’s pretty clear that at this point, the combined opposition majority can’t agree on a strategy to turf Johnson out of office. This could prove fatal to their main aim.  In the absence of a policy to unite around, passing a vote of confidence against him would only set a clock ticking that would defeat their essential aim of preventing the UK …

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Boris’s bullying and bluster blinds him to the chance of agreement behind the sound and fury. He is his own worst enemy

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This exchange will be remembered… Paula Sheriff Dewsbury, Lab I genuinely do not seek to stifle robust debate, but this evening the Prime Minister has continually used pejorative language to describe an Act of Parliament that was passed by this House. I am sure you would agree, Mr Speaker, that we should not resort to the use of offensive, dangerous or inflammatory language about legislation that we do not like. We stand here, Mr Speaker, under the shield of our …

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Basic flaw in Labour’s referendum plan makes it unworkable

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We have arrived at one of those moments when something that’s agonising lots of clever people for  years has a basic flaw which people caught up in controversy have been more or less  blind to.  Corbyn’s fence sitting has been well and truly exposed as absurd.  Why should the EU offer Labour a Brexit deal if most of its members want to campaign against it?  But if they somehow succeed, how could the leadership stay neutral on the deal they’ve …

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Arlene Foster and Leo Varadkar must do business together on Brexit after last night’s ice breaker

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The most important thing that Arlene Foster has just done is to talk to Leo Varadkar for the first time in ages. This was a meeting that was apparently kept under wraps until it had happened.  Only a short time before, the Dublin government were saying they were hoping for a meeting “soon.” This brief encounter  opens up the possibility of genuine north-south cooperation to help hammer out an agreement on the border – and perhaps the Assembly – that …

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Is this really it? ” Northern Ireland would effectively become a special economic zone inside both the UK and the EU”

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Too much for the DUP, too little for Dublin and the EU but enough to keep going? The direction of travel has seemed clear for some time. These reports bring it out into the open. Johnson has been talking up a deal based on an expansion of  the original  agri foods proposal. An actual outline has been show to the EU negotiators, but not to  take  home with them . (Why did they tamely agree to only a sneak preview?)  …

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Backstop fever has subsided, but the virus is still live and it could spread…

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This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News.    Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…” The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives …

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The imminence of direct rule underlines the fact that the SDLP are wrong not to back Margaret Ritchie as a member of the House of Lords

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The SDLP still haven’t managed to shake off  strategic ineptitude. They’ve   achieved the worst of both worlds by wishing former SDLP leader and MP Margaret Ritchie well but “ fundamentally disagree” with her decision to go to the Lords. This is in fact an enlightened  move by Margaret which deserves SDLP backing. The SDLP attack Sinn Fein for persisting with abstention from the Commons when their voting presence might have made a difference in narrower Brexit votes.  The absence of …

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Will Arlene be confronted with an amended backstop today? How would she react? (No prizes!)

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I was watching the Commons feed last night and missed Nick Watt’s report on Newsnight, raising the hare  that Boris Johnson was  going further than an all-Ireland agri-zone and was about to revive the NI specific backstop.  Sam McBride of The Newsletter was watching. Last night’s report suggests that Mr Johnson may be preparing to abandon the DUP for the second time in six months, despite the party having ensured he became Prime Minister..  Newsnight said Mr Johnson was understood …

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“Die in a ditch?” It could come to that. And Ireland hunkers down for a new border

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As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of  21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings;  and with Tory traditionalist  MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson  looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at …

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The true costs of No Deal – the most complete independent assessment yet

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Britain in a changing Europe is as near as we’ve got to an objective think on the subject of Brexit. Today as the Commons votes  to forestall a No Deal outcome, they publish their independent assessment on what No Deal actually means for the UK (not the Republic).     This is the Executive summary No deal will mean a prolonged period of uncertainty. Not only do we not know with any certainty when and how no deal impacts will …

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This isn’t a coup. We should still be concerned and angry.

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Boris Johnson set off a political earthquake when he asked the Queen to prorogue parliament on the 28th August. There have been huge protests in London. Opposition MPs are demanding meetings with the Queen. The Speaker has issued a statement calling Johnson’s decision a “a constitutional outrage.” Many people will be cheering Boris Johnson on. Others will be frightened and scared at what lies ahead. It’s the reason why many are referring to the current situation as a coup. When …

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A real test for Boris Johnson. Will he convene the Intergovernmental Council at a time when an open breach over Brexit seems imminent?

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We are in worse confusion over Brexit than anything in modern times, short of total breakdown and conflict. On one side there is a withdrawal agreement that will never pass this House of Commons. On the other there is the persistence with a backstop that threatens an outcome it is designed to prevent. This is not a rational situation. And yet the train is on course to hit the buffers. Boris Johnson will have satisfied himself that he has gone …

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No Deal myths exploded and need for Direct Rule is confirmed in major report

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The authoritative Institute for Government has blasted most of the claims made for a No Deal strategy. In a new report it confirms the pressure on the Union and the need for Direct Rule. The head of NI civil service  David Sterling recently  addressed the institute and a leading member visited Belfast before issuing this report. The Union will come under unprecedented pressure: Johnson may well find that having left one political union, he spends an increasing proportion of his …

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By acting on abortion and equal marriage, Westminster has changed the dynamic of the talks

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One day in politics can change everything. The Northern Ireland Executive Formations Bill was, until the 9th July, an uninteresting piece of legislation. It proposes to amend the Northern Ireland (Executive and Exercise of Formations Bill) 2018, a law passed in the wake of the collapse of the Assembly. The Secretary of State introduced the 2019 Bill to extend the period in which an Executive must be formed until the 21st October 2019. There’s a clause allowing an extension of …

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A rare event. Northern Ireland is at the heart of a Commons challenge today to prevent a No Deal Brexit

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Dominic Grieve QC MP Boris Johnson is expected to become  PM  just one day before the Commons rises for the summer recess, leaving only a few weeks  to challenge him  “not bluffing”  over quitting the EU at Hallowe’en, deal or no deal.  In perhaps the only available opportunity before the recess begins on 25 July, Northern Ireland is at the heart of moves by dissenting Conservatives to try to stop him today.  The opportunity created is  what would otherwise be …

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We’re in crisis now. Armageddon on Brexit and the Union may take a little longer

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So the Stormont talks are in limbo. Why should they be different?  Everything else is, including the future of the Union. The reputation of failed prime ministers can rise after they retire defeated and the problems continue to confound their successors.  Even Theresa May is starting to look just a bit better.  Straight after he lost two elections in quick succession in 1974 ,Ted Heath’s reputation  as a statesman seemed secure when his  historic achievement of  EEC entry  that would …

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Johnson and Hunt may pose as champions of the Union but if elected the winner is not automatically Prime Minister

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Photo. Getty images   Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt continue to vie with each other  in a bidding war which includes who is the greater  verbal champion of the Union above all else. Both of them claim to be able to square the circle of Union First and No Deal  but No Deal if necessary. On the Marr Show Hunt said he would do both,  but then I lost track of his reasoning. As nobody bothered to  report what exactly he …

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Brexit breakthrough in Prosperity UK report? No Deal rejected and the backstop stays until final deal, says group including Foster, Dodds and Rees Mogg. But thumbs down from NI business leaders

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A leading Tory Brexit adviser tipped for No 10 who was part of the team who wrote the Prosperity UK report has told a news conference that No Deal is “not politically acceptable”. The report accepts the backstop but its recommendations are designed to ensure it never happens. The verdict coming in is that  Prosperity UK’s interim report is a serious piece of work devoid of unicorns.  It this catches on, it will be a breakthrough. Singham’s  line sounds the …

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Boris fudging over Hallowe’en deadline likely to end in general election

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As the Tory leadership contest passes to the party’s version of the people, we may expect Boris Johnson’s approach to Brexit to come under scrutiny for the first time. We only know from the last vacuous TV debate that he like Gove and Hunt cannot “guarantee “ leaving on  31 October.  However  EU sources are saying they would only grant a deadline extension for a general election which would compel a halt to proceedings .  The whole pretence of a …

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