RedC on Sinn Féin: “The greatest declines are seen among younger voters…”

Following on from Mick’s post, it’s worth highlighting an interesting detail from, Managing Director of RedC, Richard Colwell’s analysis of the poll. Back in December we were recording the highest levels of support seen for Sinn Fein in any RED C poll, reaching a high of 24% of the first preference vote. In today’s poll they secured just 16%, the worst level seen for the party since February 2014. That means that in effect the party has lost 8% support over …

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Kenny: The General Election will be in Spring 2016

Well there we go Taoiseach @EndaKennyTD tells #Twip my intention has always been to have the general election in 2016 and I see nothing to change that — The Week in Politics (@rtetwip) October 11, 2015 If the coalition does hold it will be the first ever Fine Gael-Labour coalition to serve a full five year term in Irish history. Also Sinn Fein will have to fight two elections within weeks of each other as the Northern Assembly elections will …

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McDonnell apologises for IRA comment

TIME WARP POLITICS: The new Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell made an appearance on Question Time in which supportive comments he made about the IRA in 2003. He attempted to contextualise them as being from a time when it looked like the peace process was in trouble.

Labour’s choice of its enemies

LABOUR IN SEARCH OF A SOUL: Labour has a lack of clarity about its own morality and its own purpose. It needs to become a united fighting force again. At this moment, it’s hard to imagine it trying to solve these problems any time soon.

Vernon Coaker is back as Shadow NI Secretary

Jeremy Corbyn has appointed Vernon Coaker (Yvette Cooper backer) as Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary. Coaker served in the position before from 2010-13. He was previously Shadow Defence Secretary in the latter years of the Miliband era. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Lewis: “It is essential we continue to work with the Government on a bi partisan basis and maintain an honest broker, equi distant role between Northern Ireland’s political parties”

The Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary and Liz Kendall backer, Ivan Lewis has taken to Facebook to state his position on the election of Jeremy Corbyn. Lewis was candid in saying that he has not made up his mind yet whether to join his fellow Corbyn critics in leaving the shadow cabinet. He has, however, ruled out leaving the Labour party. Lewis has stated some criticisms of Corbyn supporters in some of their comments on the Middle East saying; For the …

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Finance Ministers from the devolved administrations issue a warning on cuts

Interesting article that caught my eye on Politics Home today was a joint letter issued by the Scottish Finance Secretary, John Swinney, Welsh Finance Minister, Jane Hutt and our own Finance Minister, Arlene Foster, to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Greg Hands about the pace of spending cuts coming from Westminster. The letter warns that the current pace of cuts are going “too fast and too far” and warn about the dangers to public services. The three ministers wants …

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The Labour Party in Northern Ireland: the first ripple in a new wave of electoral dynamics?

Craig Harrison writes for us about the Labour leadership and the possibility of the party contesting elections in Northern Ireland This week, Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham made a public commitment to review the party’s policy on standing candidates in Northern Ireland, arguing: “I want the people of Northern Ireland to make their voices heard in the Labour Party, and if I am elected leader, I’ll ensure that the party is listening”. If we ever want to see a normalization …

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Thoughts on Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s un-electability

I have been trying to write something on the Labour leadership election for a while now but keep getting put off. Rather than look at the election itself it might be interesting to look at two of the supposed truisms with surround the election and specifically Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign: that Corbyn as Labour leader would be unelectable and that only a Blairite Labour position can win a UK general election. The standard view is that Corbyn is unelectable. He is …

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In Government or howling at the moon? Coalition politics in Ireland

We are fast approaching the next Irish general election and this one is likely to be a real squeaker in terms of which combinations win enough seats to form a stable government. The latest polls show us a couple of things; Fine Gael (unless they fight a terrible campaign) will be the largest party. Sinn Fein will come third. The local elections showed the trend towards the party and it is very unlikely at this stage that Labour will over …

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Look over there…a view of the UK election from Ireland

I have never made a secret of the fact that I am no expert on politics outside of Ireland.  I watch elections in other countries in a disinterested fashion.  The systems are strange and I find it gives you an insight into just how bizarre politics can look when you are not involved.  The UK election is probably the most interesting one in my lifetime.  Up until now all I have ever seen is a strange and undemocratic voting system …

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Dodd lays into the Tories for laying into the SNP’s mandate (and side-slaps the SNP)

Those who heard this morning’s #SluggerReport will have noted the major item was Nigel Dodds’ extraordinarily adept intervention in the Westminster debate this morning in the Guardian. It surely cannot be a coincidence that Jim Wells’ has been dispatched so quickly (hint: it was nothing to do with our toothless Ministerial code) in order to clear the air and political space for this… Listening to Nicola Sturgeon’s progressive pan-British rhetoric, you could have thought you were listening to one of …

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Votes for the SNP bind them closer into the Union

Votes for the SNP in the general election would bind the SNP closer into the Union especially if Labour  form the government. This was becoming even clearer from the analysis of the gap between Labour’s and the SNP’s austerity plans by Paul Johnson of the Institute of Fiscal Studies. ( Times £) What is clear is that there is a really quite substantial difference between Labour and the Conservatives. We can put it in the order of £24 billion of spending a …

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Reconciliation, Rebuilding and Recovery: A model for Ireland?

It’s not because we don’t realise the nature of the odds we have to beat, but because we know that if we can win that battle we can win them all. Let’s not start off by doubting our capacity to win. A defeatist attitude now is certain to lead to defeat, it’s primarily a question of whether we have confidence in ourselves and in the abilities, diligence and determination of our people, we cannot opt out of the future. Sean …

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Sinn Fein’s support in the South now mirroring Northern electoral result.

The latest Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent was released yesterday and it shows that Sinn Fein are Ireland’s most popular party on 26% to Fine Gaels 25%. Fianna Fail are on 19%, Labour on 6% and the Independents are on 23%. In terms of seats the NUIM academic gives the figures as follows Dail seat estimates based on constituency level analysis of 25 Feb Sunday Independent-Millward Brown poll FG 46 SF 45 FF 34 IND/OTH 33 LAB 1 …

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Labour’s Scottish Play – the onward march of the SNP

Election watchers and political anoraks have been spending much of the day absorbing the eagerly-awaited Scottish constituency opinion polls from Lord Ashcroft. The SNP have been polling very strongly in national Westminster opinion polls since the failed independence referendum, and have consistently polled leads over Labour of over 20%. The big question for those trying to make sense of the upcoming election has been “Do these strong national polls for the SNP translate to possible gains in a first past …

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Joan V Gerry: Who is the true leader of the left?

Labour party leader, Joan Burton with go up against Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams on Claire Byrne Live tonight on RTE 1 at 10:35pm. This will be a chance for both leaders to either cement their position or gain ground within the Irish left. What does Adams need to do? Demonstrate that Sinn Fein has not just the critique but also the solution to austerity in Ireland. What new taxes is he proposing? Job creation programmes? Real change v more …

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Why the Personal should never be political: The case of Mary-Lou and Joan

Some things in politics drive me crazy. Maybe it’s the mind numbing spin, poor speeches or just total lack of coherence in strategy or message, but Joan Burton’s attack on Mary Lou McDonald just took the biscuit. Labour are currently in a lot of trouble in the South polling at around 8% and look almost certainly like they will be surpassed by Sinn Fein at the next election. So, in a heated exchange in the Dail this week over a …

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Poll of Polls 2014: FG/Lab/FF down, SF up and Independents most popular group in Ireland

Well it’s nearly over, 2014 Ireland had the local and European elections, a Cabinet Reshuffle, resignations and another budget as the current government cross the halfway mark in this term of office. So, how have the parties been performing over the past year? I took a look at the various RedC polls that have been conducted throughout the year. In terms of overall party support here is how each party has been performing since 2013. Fine Gael-25.8% (-2.3%) Labour-8.2% (-2.8%) …

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Adams: The Taoiseach should now show the courage of his convictions by resigning, calling a General Election and letting the people decide.

Following the Irish Water saga there is mounting speculation that Ireland might be heading to the polls in 2015. Writing for Slugger, Sinn Fein President, Gerry Adams TD argues that it’s time for the Taoiseach to go the country and let the people decide the future economic direction of the country. The Fine Gael/Labour coalition Government is in deep crisis. As each day passes it is clearer that it will struggle to stay in office for its full term. The …

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