Poll of Polls 2014: FG/Lab/FF down, SF up and Independents most popular group in Ireland

Well it’s nearly over, 2014 Ireland had the local and European elections, a Cabinet Reshuffle, resignations and another budget as the current government cross the halfway mark in this term of office.

So, how have the parties been performing over the past year? I took a look at the various RedC polls that have been conducted throughout the year.

In terms of overall party support here is how each party has been performing since 2013.

Fine Gael-25.8% (-2.3%)

Labour-8.2% (-2.8%)

Fianna Fail-19.8% (-3.6%)

Sinn Fein-20% (+3.9%)

Inds-26% (+5%)

The government’s approval rating has continued to slide throughout the year. In Fine Gael’s case the resignation of Justice Minister, Alan Shatter made a real dent in the party’s approval rating and in Labour’s case the election of Joan Burton as the party leader has made a very minor difference in the party’s approval and it still ends the year down from its 2013 support levels.

Fianna Fail had been making gains throughout 2013, trending to around 23%, which is were the party ended up in the European Elections, but as austerity continues to bite it is recieving no reward from the loss of support in the government and ends the year down as well.

Sinn Fein, who actually saw their support fall overall in 2013, have gained more support and now in party terms are neck and neck with Fianna Fail for second place in Ireland. The party has trended upwards from the middle of the year moving from the high teens at the start of the year to the low 20s at the end.

Independents have been the big winners of 2014, surging 5% overall to an incredible 26%. Since 2012, the average support for independents has not fallen below 20% which should worry all of the parties.

Undecideds throughout the year still average around 12%, so there is still a lot of play for amongst the main parties. As Ireland heads into an election year (It’s due by April 2016, but speculation/history says it is more likely to be 2015) there is very little margin for error anymore for any of the parties.

 

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  • barnshee

    The success of the independents and the solidity of SF is really amazing– If this continues the final structure of the Dail after the next election will be — ahem -more than interesting – well that`s what happens in PR. I am really looking forward to the passing `”the parcel of blame” scenes in the next session

  • SaffronDuck

    David, how did you arrive at these numbers? Are they a crude average of each party’s polling during the year? Can think of little statisical value in that as all it does is lead to obliteration of valuable trend analysis. A basic smoothed graph would be of considerably more worth than averaging.

  • Paddy Reilly

    Well, bearing in mind that this is only a poll, and given my previous strictures about polls, merely an imaginary scenario, I would say that this shows an increasing integration of politics in the 32 County area.

    Sinn Féin are predicted to win 20% in the 26 county area, and get 27% in the 6.

    Labour win 8.2% in the 26, SDLP 14.2% in the 6.

    Independents 26% in the 26, DUP 30% in the 6.

    So, with a little population movement after reunification, we have the makings of a seamlessly united political set-up.

    Alliance and UUP I assume would go with Fine Gael.