Mack

Newstalk, a national Irish commercial radio station, have taken the unusual step of releasing a pre-budget editorial statement, repeated at intervals throughout the day. Already it is generating controversy online. From thepropertypin to politics.ie to Irish Election. I largely agree with both it’s tone and it’s content, others seem upset that a radio station would take such a clear and unambiguous stand. Scarcely has any politician in the history of our State faced such difficulties as those which face the …

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It was always a long shot, but I’m disappointed to see that the Snowtopia scheme has been rejected by An Bord Pleanala. Per the Indo report. MASSIVE plans for a €100m indoor ski resort in west Dublin, which could have created 1,000 permanent jobs, have been turned down by An Bord Pleanala. Developers of the snow and ice leisure centre at Tyrellstown expressed “extreme disappointment” at the decision by the planning authority to uphold a refusal by Fingal County Council …

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RTE report on some interesting figures from the CSO. Irish shoppers spent almost €500m shopping in Northern Ireland from the end of June 2008 to the end of June this year. According to new figures from the Central Statistics Office, some one-in-six Irish households (16%) made at least one shopping trip to Northern Ireland over that 12 month period. Much lower than previous estimates then. Just under half the spend is on groceries – The cross-border shoppers surveyed said they …

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Last night’s Prime Time investigation into the deaths of Michael Dwyer, Eduardo Rózsa-Flores and Árpád Magyarosi, in Bolivia earlier this year, is available online and well worth watching. Prime Time – Death in Santa Cruz MackNo bio, some books worth reading – The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves – Matt Ridley . Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance -Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm

Ambrose Evans Pritchard reports on 8 top ‘ten’ trades for 2010 from Goldman Sachs. Perhaps surprisingly it contains – Short Spain/ Long Ireland.. This is interesting. Goldman Sachs says both countries are “boom-bust” property disasters but Ireland “looks better placed to outgrow its debt” and has shown “greater resolve” in taking the axe to spending. Spain’s “behind-the-scenes” bank cleansing is not credible. I agree totally. Goldman Sachs plays this through 5-year credit default stops (CDS). Don’t ask me how to …

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We appear to be governed by some sort of heretofore undiscovered species of jellyfish. Having previously committed itself to making €4bn in cuts, initially €1.3bn from public sector salaries & the remainder from welfare, services and capital investment, last night’s agreement with the Unions reduces the cuts from the public sector pay bill to €1bn. The difference will be made up by cuts to welfare rates, public services and capital investment programs. Cutting capital investment programs, the sector which gives …

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Niall Ferguson poses a brain teaser in an article on the risks of collapse of American hegemony in Newsweek Now, who said the following? “My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the [fiscal] crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.” Couldn’t have been a world famous Keynesian economist, speaking about a US administration …

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A report by Colm McCarthy on the challenges facing the Irish economy is available on Scribd. In the five quarters from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2, Ireland’s real GNP, seasonally adjusted, has fallen by 13.5%. The unemployment rate has risen by eight points, labour force participation has fallen and emigration has resumed. The economic decline in Ireland exceeds by a large margin those being experienced by most other European countries, and constitutes the worst recession in Ireland since the early …

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Will Sovereign Debt defaults be the catalyst for the next leg of the financial crises? The Hong Kong Hang Seng index plunged 4.84% last night and the Japanese Topix fell 2.24% as Dubai proposed delaying sovereign debt repayments. Credit Default Swaps, derivative instruments that allow lenders to hedge against the risk of counter-party default surged for emerging markets yesterday. Indicating that the market fears that further defaults are likely in the developing world. Bloomberg quote Nick Chamie, head of emerging-market …

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The six mile tail back on the road into Newry, splashed in glorious full colour on the front page of today’s Indo, helped yesterdays strike undermine the strongest argument opposing cuts in public sector pay. With various studies putting public sector pay approx. 20% higher than equivalent private sector pay levels (without taking into account superior benefits), the main argument against cuts was that they would reduce the amount of money being spent in the Irish economy, leading to a …

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Well paid workers with safe jobs to announce a second shopping trip strike. MackNo bio, some books worth reading – The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves – Matt Ridley . Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance -Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm

Constantin Gurdgiev breaks down the latest CSO earning figures which show significant falls in private sector earnings down 6.8% between Q2 2008 and Q2 2009, along with falls in earnings in some public sector sub-sectors (education) and in the semi-states. Earnings in some private sector sub-sectors actually rose slightly, particularly at managerial level, but the average is down significantly. Earlier CSO reports had failed to show significant private sector drops which had led some to claim they weren’t occurring. The …

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World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Rankings – 2000 United States Singapore Luxembourg Netherlands Ireland World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Rankings – 2009 Switzerland United States Singapore Sweden Denmark …. 25. Ireland What happened in the interim? Export growth stalled, and our competitiveness declined as we succumbed to the lure of cheap credit and expensive property. Do you think this is an issue for a country dependent on FDI? What can be done to restore Irish international competitiveness? MackNo bio, some …

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The Indo report that the new EU President Herman Van Rompuy wishes to level new EU wide taxes to raise money directly for the EU. “The financing of the welfare state, irrespective of the social reform we implement, will require new resources,” he said. “The possibility of financial levies at European level needs to be seriously reviewed.” Europe has a much older population that Ireland and is dogged with chronic long term unemployment – Ireland with it’s dynamic young population …

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There is a FAIR PLAY = REPLAY march tomorrow, from Landsdowne Road to the French Embassy, kick off 2 PM. From the Facebook site We are protesting against FIFA’s decision not to allow a replay of the France vs Ireland Qualifier. We are calling on the French Football Federation to join our calls for Fair Play to prevail. We hope at the very least we will highlight to the issue of the need for Video Referreeing in games of this …

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Time to exert some moral pressure on the French FA, sign the online petition for a replay. By replaying the match, France can take an opportunity to progress to the World Cup fairly, with their heads held high. By backing a call for a replay Thierry Henry can restore his battered reputation. Petition for a replay Update: Kiss good bye to your afternoon – relive the highs and lows of Wednesday’s match. Hand of Gaul – The Game MackNo bio, …

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On Irish Economy they are linking to a paper by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna – Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending. The abstract makes interesting reading We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases. As for …

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The Indo report that Eamon Gilmore has ruled out cuts in pay for those with the safest jobs in the country – he will however save money by cutting €750 million from Capital Spending (that’s spending on infrastructure such as school buildings, roads, hospitals etc). So there you have it, priorities clear as day – protect incumbent well-paid workers with safe jobs, cut spending that would create jobs. Feck the unemployed! MackNo bio, some books worth reading – The Rational …

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The Department of Finance has released it’s pre-budget outlook. A back of the envelope calculation puts spending as a proportion of GNP at a whopping 55.3%. Higher than earlier estimates by Ronan Lyons and Goodbody StockBrokers. Calculations – GNP – €138.3bn – based on last years GNP of €154.5bn * 10.5% drop reported in pre-budget submission Spending Gross Current Expenditure = €61,234 Gross Capital Expenditure = €15,169 Total = €76.4bn Per cent of GNP = 55.3% Links – Pre-budget Outlook …

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Whether you lean to the right or left, John Kay’s articles on the market and rent seeking by large corporations are well worth a read. In them he attacks misconceptions held on the right that lead to market distortions, and in response, often lead to hostility to markets from the left – for instance – A popular caricature of the market economy sees greed as the dominant human motivation. Economic progress is best achieved by acknowledging that reality and imposing …

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