General Election 2010 – UCUNF

Where to start?
The four stage progression I suppose, thus:
1) The bright new non-sectarian dawn.
2) Look at us we have Catholic candidates.
3) Sorry no we haven’t.
4) Oh and we’ll change our mind on standing in every seat…
Totally. Absolutely. Astonishing.
I always thought that the money was important but was it the only thing?
How did they do anyway?
Election Year 2010 2005 Delta
East Belfast 21.2% 30.9% -9.7%
West Belfast 3.1% 2.3% 0.8%
North Belfast 7.7% 7.1% 0.6%
South Belfast 17.3% 22.7% -5.4%
FST 45.5% 18.2% 27.3% I know but he would have taken the Tory whip.
West Tyrone 14.2% 6.9% 7.3%
Foyle 3.2% 2.4% 0.8%
Mid Ulster 11.0% 10.7% 0.3%
South Down 7.3% 9.9% -2.6%
East (L)Derry 17.8% 21.1% -3.3%
Newry and Armagh 19.1% 13.9% 5.2%
Strangford 27.8% 25.2% 2.6% Change based on Tory and UUP 2005 vote combined.
Lagan Valley 21.1% 21.5% -0.4%
Upper Ban 25.7% 25.5% 0.2%
North Antrim 10.9% 14.5% -3.6%
East Antrim 23.7% 26.6% -2.9%
South Antrim 30.4% 29.1% 1.3%
North Down 20.4% 52.9% -32.5%

As always Nic Whyte on Ark for the data.
That’s not a clear picture is it? What can we conclude?
1) Back in the hunt in West Tyrone where an Assembly seat is surely likely.
2) Maybe could chance their arm with 2 candidates in Newry and Armagh.
3) In South Antrim surely Empey would have won if the progression above would have stopped at 2…..and a possible gain if they only stand 2 candidates next time?

Anything else stand out?

, , , ,

  • Dewi

    Tables not friendly I know so I’ve put the movement in bold.

  • drumlins rock

    Dewi, can I put one thing straight, the Orange Order had no influence in the decision to back Rodney Connor in FST, it was entirely through the the two parties and reflected grassroot pressure from party members and unionist voters of all varieties.

  • Dewi

    Fair enough DR – I’ll modify.

  • Comrade Stalin

    DR, it obviously wasn’t coming from grassroots unionist voters as the combined unionist vote dropped despite a real chance to unseat Gildernew.

    Clearly, though, it’s nonsense to say that this position was dictated by the OO, things don’t work that way anymore. UCUNF were goaded into the “unity” idea by the DUP who were anxious to make fools out of UCUNF and Cameron for promising to run in all 18 seats, and expose UCUNF’s hypocrisy over claiming to be non-tribal.

  • Dewi, the OO and other Loyal Orders are just as badly fragmented as the Unionist parties. The UCUNF IMO is a big mismatch so I can’t see it lasting too long.

  • CS, forthcoming commemorations IMO will keep the tribal pot bubbling strongly for quite some time to come. I think I’d opt for silliness or stupidity more than hypocrisy.

  • Dewi

    Anything particularly a factor in West Tyrone DR?

  • drumlins rock

    Ross Hussey, he put in alot of work even if he didnt stand a chance, He has been working hard for the last few years as a councillor and I hope gets a chance at the assembly next year.

  • Dewi

    On reading that it sounds a bit more critical than intended. I was more bemused at the whole process to be honest – after all, despite failing to win a seat, the outcome was pretty reasonable.

  • Mike

    No North Down?

  • Dewi

    Terribly sorry – give me a minute…

  • John Doe

    Re Newry and Armagh- think im right in saying that this was the only constiuency that the UCUNF outpolled the DUP. I personally put that down to one factor- Danny Kennedy. His new status as deputy party leader has meant a vastly increased national media profile. Regular TV and Radio appearances. This is against reliable Willie Irwin with as good as no media profile outside the area. Danny is also a genuinely likable, personable and nice guy- not the best attributes for a politician!!

    Irwins Seat is totally safe in the assembly, two UUP candidates would be silly and a waste of resources. Where the difference might be seen is at Council level where the UUP could perhaps regain some of the seats lost to DUP in recent years. In the Cusher ward in Armagh (Tandragee/Markethill) the UUP used to hold total sway, but have lost 2 seats to the DUP since 97. They are poised to take one back there. Plus almost certainly one in the Fews ward of Newry. Regaining 2 council seats i would imagine would be considered a major trimuph by the UUP.

    Apoligies for going too ‘local’

  • Dewi

    Updated.

  • drumlins rock

    can you not take north down of it again? 🙂

  • Dewi, there’s also an element of tactical voting across the ‘tribal’ divide. Some UCUNF supporters in some constituencies will have voted SDLP to keep SF out.

  • Dewi

    Lol DR – I’ve given you the FST increase to compensate….
    Nevin – where do you think? Foyle? Down South?

  • drumlins rock

    Down South they usually vote Fine Gael, but in South Down I think there definately would be an element of that, hope they return the favour next yeah and keep wee John in a job 🙂

  • Comrade Stalin

    The Tory/UCUNF HQ in Linfield Industrial Estate appears to be closed. I guess the final word will come from whoever wins the leadership campaign.

  • Sounds most likely, Dewi. Apparently there may have been some cross-over voting in North Antrim in favour of Ian Paisley jnr because of the Allister factor.

  • Dewi

    Lol – on form this afternoon DR!!!

  • Dewi

    Crikey Nevin – now that would be ineteresting – find someone who did!!

  • drumlins rock

    CS, I think it was only leased for the Euro and Westminister election campaigns.

  • UCUNF also probably ‘sacrificed’ votes in North Antrim in order to slot in a token Conservative candidate. The selection took place at the very last minute so there was no time to build up candidate recognition.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    You are of course right about the four point conclusion. A disaster and hard not to laugh at the sheer incompetence.
    But its 18 different races.
    East Belfast….certainly a special case. But ultimately Ringland defeated himself. The most liberal UUP (I can never remember the new unwieldy name and Im too old to learn it) candidate presented the unionist voters with a dilemna. They decided they would be even more liberal and go all the way with Long.
    North Belfast….minimal change and demographic. Dodds and Kelly (SF) presented it as a straight fight and the unionist voters rallied to DUP. The UUP in decline here for years but the DUP is still short of three quotas so Id still say UUP safe with one seat.
    South Belfast….the odd thing here is not the 5% UUP drop but the combined 10%plus drop in UUP/DUP votes and AP rising by 8%. and SDLP up 9%
    Poor candidate (Bradshaw), SF voters voting SDLP or staying at home and SFs withdrawl effectively winning seat for SDLP freed up people to vote AP. And the nature of South Belfast (university), SDLP DID get some Protestant votes.
    West Belfast….unionist core vote is so small that percentages are easily distorted. With good vote management unionists can get a quota (changes wont help)

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Lagan Valley…..awful back to the future candidate Trimble was more motivated by opposing Donaldson than any real issue.
    South Antrim…..you have to laugh, not least because it was one leg of my treble. The two faces of Empey were clearly seen. Hed got rid of his Catholic ccandidates and was appealing for them to vote for him to keep bigot McCrea out. Hilarious.
    East Antrim….a genuine UUP versus DUP contest and it was same again in percentage terms.
    North Antrim……Allister was always going to be the main challenger to Paisley Junior. And the tactic was to hold on to a quota……which their candidate more or less did.

    East Derry……Highly articulate candidate (well I liked her) and the new face but basically all she was targetting was holding the vote. And she did just that.

  • It has to be Daithi McKay, Dewi 😉

    SDLP and SF are both keen to maximise the overall Nationalist vote yet they each dropped about 2% in North Antrim.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Foyle….token resistance
    West Tyrone..losing their Assembly seat hurt them….and probably hurt the broader unionist population. But he took his votes from Deeney (as did Joe Byrne SDLP) and the two unionist quotas are more evenly balanced. DUP will lose a seat.
    Fermanagh-South Tyrone……when you sup with the devil have a long spoon. The whole charachter of 2010 election would have been different if Connor had won it.
    Mid Ulster…they did ok. Holding their quota. Seeing off TUV was critical for next year.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Newry-Armagh..probably a certain amount of abstention as Murphy was a certain winner and no incentive to vote SDLP to keep him out.
    A true head to head within unionism for third place and they beat DUP (reversing previous 2005 result). Safe quota.

    Upper Bann. This was probably most nteresting because of who WASNT standing……TUV. DUP and SF talked up O’Dowd as a threat. In the event it was a straight head to head within unionism and DUP were reasonably comfortable with percentages staying same and a morale booster for UUP that they still came second.
    Conceivably if TUV had stood (Simpson is TUV-lite and local Upper Bann TUV people predicted he would jump ship) the UUP might have won.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    South Down…awful vote for UUP but not a lot different from 2007 which was a disaster for them. A few UUP voters might have voted Ritchie to keep out Ruane but Ruane was no real threat. They will obviously do better in a PR election. And hold their seat.

    Strangford a special case for obvious reasons. But ultimately like Ringland, the Election came about 6 weeks too late for Nesbitt. New face like Bradshaw and Ringland. But ultimately didnt stand up to real scrutiny in the heat of a campaign.

    North Down…how many special cases are there? Basically the voters wanted Hermon. But you have to have a heart of stone not to be amused at Parsley getting a comeuppance.

  • fitzjameshorse, it might have been a very different result in East Belfast if Reg had stayed put.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    It “might”.but I think that detracts from Naomi Longs stunning result.
    UUP performance was poor due to being a shambles and a little bad luck over 18 constituencies. And apalling leadership.
    The mix of stupidity and bad luck differs in degree from constituency to constituency.
    But everything that could have gone wrong….did go wrong.

  • Foxy

    FJH, and still the vote just stagnated, If things had of went perfect Sylvia might have stayed on board, and maybe SA might have fallen, but with hindsight I dont think the time was right for the comeback.

  • Cynic

    I see that Tom Elliott has been quoted as saying that if elected he will not attend any events associated with the GAA or The Gay Community

    Not fit for purpose then, is he, and a sign of desperation.

    I assume he does realise he will have to meet with a number of gay MLAs at Stormont?

  • Foxy

    Cynic, there is a difference in the “Gay Pride Parade” and the gay community, it was only the parade he mentioned, an event which many members of the gay community don’t particularly like either.

  • Cynic

    You are absolutely right. It was only Gay Pride Parades he wouldn’t attend. But he wouldn’t attend a GAA match at all.

    Can we assume that GAA Supporters are therefore lower even than gay people in Tom;’s world view?

    And why never attend a GAA match? Is he allergic, pathologically afraid of being hit by the ball or is it just bigotry? We really do need to understand this. If he became party leader and perhaps a Minister, just what would he do if he had to attend these events in an official capacity?

  • Drumlins Rock

    Cynic, he did not rule out attending in an official capacity, and to imply that he things he is above anyone is complete tosh.

    With regards the GAA, would it not be strange for a Unionist to support an Nationalist organisation whos’ PRIMARY aim is to end the union? read the GAA constitution & Rules, to which every member & player of every club must agree to support and further,
    “Aim 1.2 Basic Aim
    The Association is a National Organisation which has as
    its basic aim the strengthening of the National Identity
    in a 32 County Ireland through the preservation and
    promotion of Gaelic Games and pastimes.”

    That aim is political, no Unionist can honestly sign up to that, and therefore cannot play GAA games, its is not Tom Elliott who is boycotting the GAA, it is the GAA who is excluding all Unionists as well as those not willing to a adopt Gaelic Irish Culture.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Tom Elliott is absolutely right to boycott GAA games. Fair play to him and Drumlins Rock is absolutely right about the constitution and intent of the GAA.
    It is hard to see why he would attend a match at Kevin Lynch Hurling Club in Dungiven, named for a INLA Hunger Striker who died in 1981. Likewise it is hard to imagine a Sinn Féin minister attending a match at Windsor Park when “our wee country” is playing.
    But It is after all perfectly in keeping with the “solution” to the problem we have encountered for more than 40 years. Recognising our divisions and living seperately is the chosen way forward.
    The “Peace Line” in various parts of Belfast is not actually about keeping warring factions apart ..it is to allow the seperate development of British and Irish cultures without having the disadvantage of actually seeing or engaging with themmuns.
    The geography whereby (say) Protestant Coagh is a few miles from Catholic Ardboe or Protestant Aghalee is a few miles from Catholic Aghagallon facilitates us in our seperate development.
    The settlement copper fastens unionism and nationalism and therefore no compromise is required.
    Its not like we have to live “together” when the Official view is that we must live “apart”.
    The Unionist parties have a vested interest in the seperation.
    So of course do Nationalist parties.
    Without our seperate villages, schools, sports clubs, languages, unionism would have no point. Neither would Nationalism.

    The seperate development has certainly made GAA clubs stronger. Tomorrow morning all over the place there are various under 10….and God help us under 8 blitzes, It seems like only 15 to 20 years ago that Mrs FitzjamesHorse1745 and I were packing some under 10s including our sons into our car. Now we go to watch our grandson.
    But the teams get younger and smaller…..they play gaelic football and can hardly stand up. Great stuff. And Im sure Mr & Mrs Tom Elliott get much the same pleasure out of watching their wains try on their first Orange sash….or whatever they do for fun.
    Mr Elliott has no wish to watch a GAA match.
    I have no wish to watch an Orange parade.
    Its simples.

  • USA

    Comrade Stalin hits the nail on the head. Disgraceful that Empy went along with it. Fair play to Richie for her anti pact position, at least it’s principled and I think it will serve her well in the long term.

  • USA

    Comrade Stalin hits the nail on the head. Disgraceful that Empey went along with it. Fair play to Richie for her anti pact position, at least it’s principled and I think it will serve her well in the long term.

  • dodrade

    It does seem strange, when Edwin Poots attended a Gaelic match and even Gregory Campbell managed to congratulate Tyrone and host a Stormont reception for them.

    I realise Basil McCrea is certaInly too liberal for most UUP members but surely Elliott doesn’t need to tack so far right to ensure what should be an easy victory for him.

  • Comrade Stalin

    The really surprising part to me is that Danny Kennedy isn’t in the running for the party leadership.

  • Comrade Stalin

    But It is after all perfectly in keeping with the “solution” to the problem we have encountered for more than 40 years. Recognising our divisions and living seperately is the chosen way forward.

    I think the US Supreme Court called it “separate but equal”. We can’t afford to have two of everything, and we can’t afford to go through another 30-year low-level civil war which these divisions caused.

  • Drumlin Rock

    CS, neither do we want a bland lowest common denominator culture. how do we get the right blend? Should the GAA drop its political aspirations? should the OO change its religious ethos? or can we keep some differences but live together peacably 90% of the time?

  • JR

    DR,
    I just wrote a 15min reply to your points on the GAA but thankfully for you I accidentally deleted it and couldn’t be bothered re-writing.

    There is a subtle but important difference in preserving Gaelic culture across 32 counties and being anti union. The GAA pre-dates partition by 40 years and promotes a culture prevalent in the32 counties so is naturally a 32 county organization.

    Like it or not Gaelic football is the most popular sport here and I think it is unacceptable for any elected representative in his capacity for representing any area in the North not to attend this sport if protocol dictates. Just because it is their personal belief that Gaelic culture has no place in these six counties.

  • “read the GAA constitution & Rules, to which every member & player of every club must agree to support and further”

    What a load of bollox!

    FYI there is a separate Club Constitution to which members must subscribe.

  • Comrade Stalin

    It’s not lowest common denominator stuff. FJH is basically proposing apartheid. I think we should all be opposed to that.

  • Comrade Stalin

    I actually don’t really care whether the guy attends games or not. If I was a senior politician I don’t think I’d attend any sports games. Sports bore the absolute crap out of me.

    What I do care about is the way he is making a virtue out of not attending. That’s just blowing the tribal dog whistle, nothing more.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Comrade Stalin…..I actually marched against apartheid rugby at Ravenhill when I was a callow Queens student. Impromptu Security for the Seth Effrikkens was provided by Queens University Rugby Club.
    Thats probably before you were born.
    What I am saying is that the “solution” to our problems instituted the diversity that its actually in Elliotts and every other republican and nationalist politician (whose philosophy would cease to exist in a fully integrated society) to support the apartheid.
    Thats the system which you may or may not have voted for in 1998.
    That…..and Creative Ambiguity (or “lie” as I prefer to think of it) was the question put before us in 1998…….and a very large number of people voted for it (perhaps yourself) without realising the consequences (perhaps yourself).
    And a lot of people seem to want to re-write it as an inclusive document it purported to be.

    In 1998 I fully understood the consequence.
    Perhaps it was the least worst option…..but it is the logical extension of that vote.

  • Big Bad Bob

    To be honest, I thought Parsley’s vote in North Down wasn’t bad, given the machine that was Hermon and the pathetic way in which the UUP men handled the whole thing.

    Basically he was the Conservative candidate against a popular incumbent backed by the DUP, by most UUP voters, and by most Alliance voters.

    Since the Conservatives got a whopping 822 there in 2005, nearly 7,000 was quite substantial, especially as no one else even got to 2,000.

    He’s also been the only “Unionist” (my term, not his admittedly) talking any sense since the election!

  • Greenflag

    Mr Elliot represents pre 1969 ‘unionism’ and we should all know by this stage where and what pre 1969 ‘unionism’ led to. The late Horseman wrote an interesting piece on Tom Elliot’s ‘concern’ over the fact of the number of ‘unionist’ university students who were leaving the province and not returning . Elliot’s concern stopped well short of showing any concern for the ‘disappeared’ on the ‘nationalist’ side in the FST constituency . Is Elliot the kind of ‘Unionist’ who might attract any ‘nationalist ‘ even moderate nationalist votes ? Not in a million years .

    Somehow the idea that ‘Unionists’ in Northern Ireland might lead their daily lives totally oblivious of the Irish world and the island they actually live on as many did back in Harry West’s time seems to have survived within Mr Elliot’s mind set . The TUV’s Allister & Vance are also members of the is no Ireland club of retard myopics that somehow find a niche existence in the tangled undergrowth of the ‘unionist’
    backwoods .

    If Elliot is the kind of leader that the so called forward looking outreaching UUP are looking for then I can only remind them of the Confucian adage that if you are hunting for fish you won’t find any on a barren mountain top:(

    Northern Ireland in it’s present format as a political entity can only survive if enough people continue to believe the lie the State was based on -both the 1920 version and it’s modern descendant the 1998 ‘update’

    As there is no practical alternative which could possibly be agreed by the opposing parties in Northern Ireland then as was made abundantly clear by Tony Blair in his book that even getting to what NI has now was an extraordinary achievment .

    The fact that it could only be achieved by cunning subterfuge -fudge and frankly some less than plain talking is neither here nor there . How else could it have been achieved ?

    Anyway it’s not that unusual given the history of ‘British’ ‘political’ solutions in Ireland -From the Treaty of Limerick to the Act of Union to the reneging on Home Rule to the Sunningdale Agreement to the GFA the entire political record of British ‘intervention’ in Ireland has been of necessity less than straightforward . To achieve anything at all in Northern Ireland not only did they have to lie(polish/varnish the truth ) to the Irish and the ‘unionists’ but also to themselves .

    No wonder many British people would like to see their political involvement in Ireland come to an end . It will . The only question is what they will leave behind and when .

  • Drumlin Rock

    Ulick its all there in black and white on the GAA website, every player must be a member, every member must support and further the aims, the no1. aim is political.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Comrade Stalin…..I actually marched against apartheid rugby at Ravenhill when I was a callow Queens student.

    Then you should know better than to advocate it as a long-term solution in NI.

    Thats probably before you were born.

    I thought you were the guy who gets annoyed when age is invoked as a qualification.

    Thats the system which you may or may not have voted for in 1998.

    I think most people in 1998 voted (a) to indicate their support for peace and (b) with the understanding that the document in question was a stepping stone. I did vote for it and I was well aware of the consequences. The art of the possible, and all that.

    And a lot of people seem to want to re-write it as an inclusive document it purported to be

    While the GFA institutionalized the tribal vote, I’m not completely persuaded that it established an apartheid society. There were a number of options on the table in the mid 1990s that I can remember. One I remember in particular was the idea of regionalized policing. Which really meant an array of separate prod and taig police forces. That one was shot down during the GFA talks process. I would take that as a sign that people weren’t in favour of an apartheid system.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Hello Ian, fancy seeing you here.

  • hoboroad

    Launching his leadership bid in Belfast’s Merchant Hotel today, Mr McCrea will unveil five pledges:

    – No ministry until party success assured – “I intend to lead the party on the basis that the leader of the UUP will be the first minister. Until this goal is achieved I will not accept any other ministry.”

    – The UUP will take the education ministry as first choice – “The party will fight the next assembly elections on the basis of ‘A vote for the UUP, is a vote to remove Ruane’. We will remove the possibility of Caitriona Ruane doing yet more damage to the education system.”

    – No electoral pacts with the DUP or anybody else – “We must convince those that no longer vote that there is something to vote for. We will stand on our own two feet, we will offer our own policies, we will select our own candidates.”

    – All MLAs will face a vote of confidence at the end of each year – “All members will be given an opportunity to express satisfaction of all UUP MLAs by secret ballot. The results will be made public.”

    – Discipline robustly enforced – “There are too many organs of the party. The party officer team will go. The executive will be revamped to include all MLAs. Attendance at executive meetings for elected representatives will be compulsory.”

    In hard-hitting comments aimed at senior party figures, Mr McCrea will say: “For far too long this party, the party for all its faults we cherish has been choked by a culture of cronyism, of rule-bending intellectual poverty.

    “We have been dogged by would-be leaders; behind the scenes, string-pulling unelected leaders and responsible-to-no-one leaders.

    “Our message to the public has been blocked by too many voices and too many self-promotional messages.

    “It has blanked out the message when it comes to the screen of public opinion.”

    Tonight Mr Elliott’s campaign manager, Mike Nesbitt will be one of seven individuals hoping to be selected as one of three (eventually to be reduced to two) candidates to run in Strangford in next year’s assembly election.

    Veteran UUP MLA David McNarry, who is also backing Tom Elliott, is also standing, as is businessman Bill McKendry, party officer Phillip Smith, former Ards mayor Jim Fletcher, long-standing Ards councillor Ronnie Ferguson and Andrew Cooper.

  • Dewi

    “All MLAs will face a vote of confidence at the end of each year – “All members will be given an opportunity to express satisfaction of all UUP MLAs by secret ballot. The results will be made public.”

    Have you got to be mad to be in this party? That’s as daft as daft can get.

  • Drumlin Rock

    Dewi, dont blame us all for Basils daft idea! I cant believe these 5 pledges are meant to be serious.

  • Drumlin Rock

    Are these for real? or has someone taken the papers in with a spoof?

    I feel stupid pointing this out, but surely the first pledge rules out the second one? How can you choose the Education Ministry while refusing to accept any other ministry? or is he simply speaking personally?

    With regards Caitroina, can anyone see her being put back in the same post by SF? even if they choose education again, and try this out for a scary thought Ms Ruane Minister for Health!!!

  • Greenflag

    ‘Have you got to be mad to be in this party?

    Probably not but it could be an asset 😉

    “There are too many organs of the party’

    Aye but the main organ without which all others are turned to mush is missing -i.e a brain. 🙁
    Maybe it’s time for another split ? A WUP (West Unionist Party ) led by Elliot -the titular West being both geographic and honorific to the late Harry West . This faction could e called by opponents s the ‘Whoops Party’ as a token of their esteem at this party’s tremendous capacity for scoring own goals as it careers like a crazed drunk around the political desert of NI . The McCrea faction could be called the Eastern Unionist Party or the EUP popularised as the YUPS or Yuppies .

    ‘That’s as daft as daft can get.’

    You might think that Dewi but I could’nt possibly comment 😉

  • Drumlin Rock

    funny thing is though most of the MLAs for the East are backing Tom.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Im not “advocating” apartheid, merely recignising thats what the solution presented to us was. As the lesser of two evils.
    You might well have voted for GFA as a stepping stone to the better days of a shared future. Fair play for doing that..
    The SF and SDLP voters to a greater of lesser extent thought they wwere voting for a different set of stepping stones.
    And the DUP and UUP voters to a greater or lesser extent thought they were voting for a barricade not stepping stones.

    We were all required to vote the same way for different things.
    Creative ambiguity.
    And theres no imperative for anyone to actually “do” anything at all.
    We are all locked into (at best) an illusion and (at worst)….a lie