The Trumpian revolution is re-ordering the global economic and security architecture in many ways, some of which could have significant implications for Ireland, whether we like it or not. Pax Americana is being replaced by Tax Americana where relations between the USA and other states are becoming entirely transactional and tariffs are imposed whenever it suits the narrow sectional interests of parts of the US elite.
Countries which do not comply with this new order of things can be sanctioned or cut out of global supply chains. Interdependence is becoming weaponized as a means of monetising long standing friendships and extracting a bigger share of the cake. The impact this has on the overall size of the cake for everyone is somebody else’s problem, or, more precisely, a problem no one is addressing, as Trump has gutted all the global treaty organisations – the UN, WTO, WHO, NATO and climate change treaties like Kyoto and the Paris Agreement which sought to address common global problems and concerns.
It’s everyone for themselves now and to hell with international cooperation. Complex cooperative organisations like the EU cannot compete with the speed of decision making by more autocratic regimes in China, Russia, and the USA. It can take many years for the EU to make a decision Trump can make in minutes – and reverse or alter a few minutes later.
And yet something is stirring at the heart of Europe. After decades of relying on a US security guarantee and benefiting from Silicon Valley innovation, US/UK financial services, Chinese manufacturing and Russian oil and gas, European elites are gradually realising that none of these things are guaranteed, or else come with unacceptable risks and costs. With its manufacturing industries dying, Europe was in danger of becoming a giant theme park for global tourism without a leadership position in anything else.
So what has changed? The Russian invasion of Ukraine signalled an end to the decades long Merkel led strategy of engaging with Russia economically in the hope of creating sufficient common interests to make war with Russia unthinkable. The failure of western powers to honour security guarantees given to Ukraine at the time it gave up the fourth largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world is what made the invasion of Ukraine possible for Russia. The loss of inexpensive Russian Oil and gas has undermined what remained of German manufacturing competitiveness.
But the threats do not only come from Russia. Trumps weaponization of Europe’s economic interdependence with the USA has made it acutely aware of its vulnerability to American control. The UK’s nuclear capability depends on US technology and maintenance and American sourced weaponry often contain hidden kill switches which render them inoperative if used in a conflict the US does not approve.
Global financial systems like SWIFT inter-bank transfers and Visa/Mastercard transactions are all controlled and terminable by US government fiat. A senior judge of the International Criminal Court found her banks accounts were frozen, her credit cards stopped working, and Amazon’s “Alexa” ceased responding to her requests immediately after she delivered a judgement favouring investigation of US war crimes in Afghanistan.
Europe can still benefit from US developed AI and Chinese manufactured solar panels but its position as a global power is endangered if it doesn’t lead on anything other than tourism and regulation. When I asked Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist when was the EU going to get its act together on a single market for capital and services to complement the single market for products, his response was that Europe still enjoys a very high standard of living and quality of life compared to most other parts of the world.
Entirely true and utterly irrelevant – much of that wealth derived from past industrial glories and imperial conquests. Where is Europe’s future wealth to come from? Without such an expanded single market for services, Europe simply doesn’t have the capital or scale for hugely expensive technologies like AI or large scale robotic manufacturing to compete with China.
But Europe is adapting in other ways. It is seeking to build alliances with Britain, Canada, Ukraine and other like-minded countries to promote European and non-US defence industries as alternatives to hugely expensive US controlled technologies. Canada could join the Single Market (and possibly the Customs Union) to limit dependency on the US market. Digital bridges are being built between SEPA (Single European Payments Area) and other regional inter-bank payment systems using a common ISO 20022 messaging system. The development of a European High Voltage Direct Current Supergrid to balance solar power from the south with wind power form the north will reduce dependence on imported oil and gas. The Macron initiated European Political Community provides a forum for much closer cooperation between EU and non EU member states.
None of this will stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine or Trump’s thrashing of the global order any time soon. But Europe is showing a resilience which belies its former complacency. Even extreme nationalist parties in many European countries no longer advocate leaving the EU. Sentiment in Britain has moved dramatically in favour of closer, if as yet, ill-defined, relations with the “continent”. Membership provides for a relationship of equals rather than the supplicant status on offer from the USA and is still a sought after goal for several Eastern European states. Trumps very hostility provides evidence it is a barrier to untrammelled US power.
The Global order is changing, but it is changing in response to American unreliability and weakness rather than Trump’s attempt to reassert US hegemony. Even the Gulf states are seeking greater cooperation with Iran rather than reliance on a US security guarantees that can be withdrawn at the Presidents whim. Russia is slowly losing a war it thought it could win in days because of mainly European, not US support. From asserting that President Zelenskyy had no cards to play, Trump is reduced to begging him to stop bombing Russian refineries as it is driving up the price of diesel for American voters.
So what are the implications and opportunities for Ireland? Our position as the only significant English speaking member state of the EU on the north-western fringe of Europe provides opportunities as well as responsibilities. We can continue to act as a bridge between competing US and EU interests. If we had a government with strategic vision we could develop a leadership position in sustainable energy production and distribution, cyber security, financial/information systems services, and maritime and aerial drone security and defence of our airspace and sea cables.
Any closer relationship with NATO or military alliances involving Britain will probably have to await the outworking of the provisions of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement as our political discourse is still poisoned by unresolved tensions with Britain. Trump tends to repeat the talking points of the last person he was speaking to – be that Vladimir Putin or Micháel Martin – and there is no doubt he was speaking from the hip and saying what he thought would please his audience and distract from his many other problems. But he was only saying what the world at large also thinks, when it can be bothered to think about Ireland at all.
The “dreary steeples” of Fermanagh an Tyrone may once again survive the great deluge of change that is once again confronting Ireland and Europe through the combined challenges of the USA, China, and Russia but without greater cooperation and rapid economic progress this time we may all go under. The time for sectarian squabbles and precious nationalisms is well and truly over. Europe’s peace and prosperity was based on a global world order that is now no longer operative. In a world where AI powered rogue drones could destroy humanity, it is time we all thought more deeply about how we can sustain our progress into a very different future.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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