Corbyn’s dire polling figures give Tories (and the SNP) huge political latitude

Yesterday there were five council by-elections in which both Tories and Labour stood. The overall swing to Conservatives was estimated at 3.8%. Hardly definitive judgement on Corbyn’s leadership, but at a time when the Tories are running a horse and cart through the benefit system hardly grounds for optimism either.

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It’s the Constitution, Stupid!

Well last night was a pretty sobering night for George Osborne.  The bill setting out the reduction in the income threshold at which tax credits can be claimed was dealt a serious blow in the House of Lords this evening.  The Government was defeated on two votes; one to pause introduction until an independent study on the impact of the cuts has been carried out; and one to provide financial assistance to those set to lose out. For those receiving …

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Tories identify the ‘squeezed middle’ and then find an inventive way to squeeze them just a little bit harder.

That rugby tackle, eh? Boris’s way is the old Etonian way. Coming through and winning, and it doesn’t seem to matter who gets hurt. Even Tory voters, apparently… Kate Malby, with a Tory take on the matter… …last night’s former Tory voter was heavily on message, until suddenly, she wasn’t. ‘I work bloody hard for my money to provide for my children, to give them everything they’ve got… and you’re going to take it away from me and them.’ It was …

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“it all may prove as tough as anything Cameron has faced before”

Good piece from Danny Finklestein in the Times of London today, which gives you as good a view of what Cameron and Osborne have planned for the next two years: In 2015 the Tories got their timing right. In 2012 George Osborne may have been booed at the Paralympics and criticised for his taxation of Cornish pasties. But in 2015 he was re-elected. Informed by this experience, the Conservatives are deliberately making difficult decisions now. Yet the combination of this …

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Could the Tax Credit Cuts be this Government’s Poll Tax?

It’s going to be interesting to see how the impending cuts to tax credits impact on the Tories. David Davis has raised concerns that this may well be this government’s poll tax, in reference to the damage done to the Thatcher Government following its introduction in 1989. On Andrew Marr’s Sunday morning show, David Cameron rejected any suggestion that he would re-visit the plan, and today Andrew Neil interviewed Conservative ministers Matt Hancock and David Gauke, both of whom struggled …

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NHS heading for a £2bn deficit, after #CPC15…

Anyone who knows anyone who works in the NHS, knows it is working at bursting point, not least because of the huge drain on recruitment imposed by the transfer to Foundation status. Now it seems the Conservatives are being accused of burying bad news until their conference is over: A report compiled by the health service regulator Monitor is understood to say the NHS is heading towards a £2 billion deficit. But a senior figure from the organisation told the Observer they had been ‘leaned on’ by Whitehall …

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Corbyn appeal struggling to get beyond Labour activists…

Briefly, the Corbyn wagon seems to be flagging… Corrected chart showing Corbyn's opening Ipsos MORI ratings compared with other LAB leaders. pic.twitter.com/KE12uwqWAx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2015 Hmmmm, my argument this morning is that his personal footprint as a local Islington MP is not translating very well to Labour’s wider base, not least some of the very personal policy obsessions he’s collected over the last thirty years… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers …

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Labour’s choice of its enemies

LABOUR IN SEARCH OF A SOUL: Labour has a lack of clarity about its own morality and its own purpose. It needs to become a united fighting force again. At this moment, it’s hard to imagine it trying to solve these problems any time soon.

On the anointing of Corbyn

At 11.30am yesterday in the room where the Labour leadership result was to be announced there was an uninvited guest: a spectre who had hovered over every party gathering for almost twenty years. Then when the result was announced an older yet spritely man strode forward to do battle with the spectre. Wearing his priestly garb of not a tie (though he did have a dark sports jacket and had removed any Lenin style hats) he approached the lectern. Then …

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Ideological Purity: Electoral Irrelevance?

This week, both Helen Lewis of The New Statesman, and Rafael Behr of the Guardian, have written very insightful pieces about the current debate raging within the Labour party about the ideological stance and policy positions of each of the candidates in the leadership contest, and the future direction of the party more generally. Essentially the current tension in the party is between principle and power; ideology and electability. After May’s devastating election result, the Labour Party has turned in …

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“future banknote designs, starting with the new polymer £5 note, will explicitly represent all four nations of the UK.”

As mentioned in this BBC report focused on the first Bank of England polymer banknote – a £5 note featuring Sir Winston Churchill which will be issued in 2016. Banknotes will feature images from all four nations of the UK starting with the new £5 note entering circulation in 2016. [Timing, eh? – Ed]  Eh?  From the Bank of England press release Chief Cashier, Victoria Cleland said: “The Bank is delighted with the number and breadth of the nominations we …

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Has George Osborne Already Begun Fighting the Next Election?

So Ed wasn’t so red after all. George Osborne’s budget yesterday contained at least six promises that Labour set out in their manifesto for the May elections, including further taxes on the banks, the increasing the NMW (I refuse to call it the national living wage) and (not quite) abolishing non-dom status. Indeed, poor Andy Burnham was absolutely pilloried in the Tory-leaning press for recently suggesting that Labour’s 2015 manifesto was “the best manifesto I have stood on in four …

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High Time Media Moved on from Indulging Pseudo-Controversy Surrounding James McClean and “Poppy Issue”

The media don’t half like flogging dead horses. Right on cue, James McClean‘s move to West Bromwich Albion last week prompted talk in the Belfast Telegraph (not for the first time) of his repeated eschewing of the wearing of a political poppy on his various past clubs’ football jerseys around Britain’s celebration of its Remembrance Sunday each year. This was despite the fact we are half a year on (or away from) November, when the reporting of such a trivial item might have …

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Can the next Labour leader act as a bridge between politics and people?

As it happens I seem to have acquired an irregular slot on Jonathan Lampon’s ‘Behind the Headlines’ slot on Radio Leicester to talk about UK politics. After a heads up from Jonathan’s team yesterday I found myself as one of an elite few watching the Labour leadership last night… Here’s the resulting discussion from this morning: listen to ‘Can Labour bridge ‘politics’ and ‘people’?’ on audioBoom There’s also some quick supplementary thoughts on this morning’s SluggerReport.. To which I’d add… …

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The Importance of Not Being Idle – Northern Ireland’s productivity problem

Since the financial crash of 2008, and the Great Recession which followed, the UK has been struggling with a productivity crisis. Productivity, defined here as the increase in GDP per hour worked, increased very steadily in the UK for fifty years until 2008. Since then, productivity growth has halted entirely. As is becoming traditional when looking at any sort of economic analysis, the situation in Northern Ireland is particularly bad. Northern Ireland has always had lower levels of productivity than …

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Could Labour open up a Pandora’s box by standing in Northern Ireland?

If elected leader of the Labour Party, Andy Burnham could allow candidates in Northern Ireland to stand for election. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the Labour Party in Northern Ireland (LPNI) unanimously endorsed his candidature for leadership only a week after Labour’s catastrophic loss in the General Election. In a press statement from 15 May, the local branch’s Executive Committee said they made the decision in part because Burnham “has loyally maintained his support for Northern Ireland CLP’s campaign to …

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After #GE2015… Are Labour’s historic coalitions suffering from an ‘upgrade effect’?

So, on with the post election profiles, this time back over to Britain, er, England and Wales. So, let’s talk about Labour (of the UK variety).  The thing about the Labour party is that it is barely more than 100 years old. In most of that time it has been in opposition. Indeed, you sometimes get the impression that some of their support quite like it that way. The only sustained exception to that rule was in the mid-sixties to …

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Labour’s defeat: the future is rarely as bleak as it seems

One of the advantages of reaching middle age is that, provided one has a good memory, one can see lots of things happening again. I have never been interested in betting: partly a good Calvinist upbringing but also the fact that aged 9 or 10 on a Sunday School outing I put money into gaming machines in Barry’s in Portrush and noted (unsurprising with hindsight) that I got less out than I put in. I have just once since been …

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It wasn’t quite Twitter wot won it – social media and the General Election

In the end, it was hardly a case of “as Twitter goes, so goes the nation”. If the election had been decided by the number of followers each candidate had before the election, Ed Miliband would have been elected Prime Minister, albeit needing the help of the Liberal Democrats and, um, the Pirate Party. The FT Data blog (£) has some fascinating charts showing how the conversation on Twitter was dominated by supporters of Labour and the SNP. It is apparent …

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