For UK Labour to lose the Copeland by-election would be historic…

Given how fixed things appear to be in Northern Irish politics, here’s an extraordinary piece of research from Matt Singh on what the precedents might be for Labour to lose the Copeland seat as a mid term opposition party: Maybe it won’t happen then? They’ve won other by-elections they were expected to be run close in. However, the presence of Sellafield there means Corbyn’s anti nuclear stance could make him a more active issue than he was in Oldham, for …

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Tony Blair has made the case for a rethink on Brexit and Northern Ireland will need a new financial deal. Is anybody listening?

Hurtling at us like a comet but unnoticed by the local worthies is the prospect for repatriating powers direct from Brussels to Stormont, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay. Among them are powers over agriculture and energy, which in Ireland are linked or integrated north and south. How they’ll be divvied up is  hasn’t  even been examined. The British government retain a substantial interest in these areas where powers currently rest with Brussels as it  negotiates new trading arrangements to replace membership …

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Theresa May is unmoved by Celtic frustrations over her Brexit stance

After Trump and Turkey week for Theresa May but with the aftershocks still shaking the bones,  Brexit week with the Celts must seem like an anti- climax. Despite all the warms words there is no sign that Mrs May is taking the pro-EU positions of two and half of the three devolved administrations even slightly seriously. The briefings before today’s Cardiff meeting could hardly be more underwhelming. We will not agree on everything, but that doesn’t mean we will shy …

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Is the Catholic Church Losing the Irish People? Reflections on Tony Flannery & the Church of England

On Sunday, Redemptorist priest Fr Tony Flannery celebrated mass publicly for the first time in five years, defying a Vatican ban on public ministry dating from 2012. Fr Flannery is being disciplined by the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith for expressing views contrary to official church teachings on matters like clerical celibacy and the ordination of women. Fr Flannery insisted the public mass was a one-off event, to celebrate his 70th birthday and the 40th anniversary of his …

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#BlueLabour engagement may be crucial to defending heartlands like #Copeland?

Fascinating development yesterday when Jamie Reed, a fervent critic of the current leadership of the UK Labour, announced he was leaving politics and his Copeland seat in the very remote north-west of England. Many of us will have passed by the constituency on our way to and from Stranraer, but unless you holiday in the western Lake District or have family there, it’s likely few of us have ever been. It starts inland in Keswick spreading out towards the sea …

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UK exports have boomed since the Brexit referendum, but mostly to the EU

In the immediate aftermath of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union on the 23rd of June 2016, the pound fell sharply against other major currencies. At the time of writing, £1 will buy €1.19 or 1.25 US dollars, down 8.5% and 14.7% respectively $1.47 and €1.30 on the eve of the referendum. It has been claimed by various sources that a fall in the pound, whilst obviously bad news for importers and holidaymakers, will prove a …

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Winter is coming, so is Brexit

In a previous life, I served for two years as a member of the EU’s Committee of the Regions, a small EU institution that looks at European legislation from the point of view of local and regional government. As a member of Fine Gael, I sat on this body in the European People’s Party (EPP), similar to Fine Gael’s MEPs in the European Parliament. A centre right grouping born out of the old Christian Democrats, the EPP is relatively unique …

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The gap between politics and the law is further exposed. But ruling on the clash between the Scots and Irish nationalists with the UK government will be the more momentous decision for the Supreme Court.

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

21C Governance: Three Reasons British Railways Don’t Work (and How To Fix Them)

How on earth could one of the world’s most advanced cities manage to disrupt its essential transport infrastructure, the lives of so many, and its economic activity so foolishly, and with such little interest from those in power? That was my conclusion in 2003. Today, exactly those words apply to another rail foul up with Southern Rail and to similar circumstances for many other British commuters and cities. The scale of human misery, stress, discomfort and the impact on working …

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Goldsmith’s Gamble Fails

A penny for Zac Goldsmith’s thoughts today! The now former MP for Richmond Park in Southwest London, resigned from his seat and from the Conservative Party to force a by-election in the constituency, to show his opposition to the Government’s plan to expand Heathrow. In the by-election held yesterday, Goldsmith was beaten by Lib Dem Sarah Olney, who overturned the former MP’s 23000-seat majority to win by nearly 2000 votes. Neither the Conservative Party nor UKIP stood a candidate in the …

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“UK policy is towards a more unilateral approach which carries with it many dangers…”

Interesting speech by Micheal Martin at Queens at the end of last week. Certainly an attempt at providing a grounded analysis, by a senior Irish political leader speaking in a U.K. University which even in the best case scenario is unlikely to do well out of any putative Brexit deal. First, a well aimed dig at ‘Perfidious Albion’ for breaking with the EU: It is simply impossible to look at the referendum debate and the arguments used to promote Leave …

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Nationalists and unionists need to discard their illusions about Brexit. The gap is dangerously wide.

We begin with two different  views of the impact of Brexit in Northern Ireland;  from first, the historian and Irish Times columnist Diarmaid Ferriter, contrasted later with DUP MP Nigel Dodds. In 1998, at the time of the endorsement of the Belfast Agreement, Fintan O’Toole observed that “Northern Ireland is now a place that is arguably unique – a place that nobody claims and nobody owns, a place that is free to become whatever its people can agree that they …

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Referring Brexit to Parliament is a quaint constitutional nicety, not a (fecking) crisis…

Well, it looks like a sizeable chunk of England (well, the political chatterati bit) has, as we like to say in Belfast, went nuts. It’s a shame Brian’s sage advice was not heeded by the editors of the Mail and, my own old manor, the Daily Telegraph. So here’s hree brief thoughts. Firstly, on the 50%+1 rule the Remain side lost. Nothing that happens in Parliament can ‘fix’ the result in favour of the 48%. Secondly, having been so soundly beaten in …

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After a quiet day in Dublin, drama in the English High Court. But don’t get too excited…

It would be as well not to get over excited about this morning’s rejection in the English High Court of the UK government’s case that it can trigger Article 50 without the consent of Parliament.  The show isn’t over yet; the denouement was always likely  to be played out at the top. The government will appeal to the Supreme Court which is also expected to deal with the equivalent Northern Ireland appeal at the same time, after the Belfast High Court …

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Has Theresa May assessed the risks of toughing it out with Nicola Sturgeon?

  So Flexit -a flexible Brexit or  separate deals with the EU for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland –  are ruled out – for now at least. “We have been very clear that we should be working together to secure the best possible deal for the whole country,” the prime minister’s official spokeswoman said on Monday. “We expect representatives of the devolved administrations to act in that way and to in no way undermine the UK’s position.” “The devolved administrations” …

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#Brexit survey suggests Unionists were radicalised, whilst nationalists are slowly switching off.

So John Coakley and John Garry have been working on the numbers from an ESRC funded survey of Northern Irish voters in the Referendum, and have come sup some interesting findings. Let’s start with the most bleedin’ obvious: The most obvious difference is that between the two communities. A striking 60% of Protestants, but only 15% of Catholics supported the “leave” side. On the Protestant side, there is a notable further difference: working-class Protestants emerge as much stronger supporters of …

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The NHS prescription: £22 billion of efficiency savings

At what point can an organisation which has undergone many years of reorganisations and “efficiency savings” actually create any more efficiencies and still comply with the regulatory regime? Leave aside the arguments about the £350 million lie of the Leave campaign, because it’s not actually relevant until Brexit is complete.  Even if every penny we actually pay into the EU were diverted to the NHS, apart from the inability to fund agricultural subsidies and infrastructure funding, that is a long …

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Instead of guessing the outcome of secret negotiations Labour should demand the whole Brexit cake.

ALL THE CAKE: Is the Labour party ready for opposition on #Brexit? John Denham doesn’t think so. By his reading, Labour’s abiding problem is its current rootlessness. Something that was its core strength in the globalising 90s, is now a dragging anchor. It needs to get in behind the majority opinion and pressurise the government to make Brexit work in the terms promised.

Labour now trail the Tories by 25% in England (and by a lot more in the over 75s)

I’m putting this here for those who wish to comment, from the ICM poll for the Guardian. First thing to note is that there is no statistically significant change, but the position is not great for Labour… Conservatives: 43% (up 2) Labour: 26% (down 2) Ukip: 11% (down 2) Lib Dems: 8% (down 1) Greens: 6% (up 2) Now, 17% is likely to be accumulated damage from a summer of very nasty and public in-fighting. You pays your money and you takes …

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Theresa May is risking the future of the British Union if she fails to recognise that Westminster is no longer “in control”

Scottish nationalism is on the defensive for the first time in over a decade. On the other hand, English nationalism could give it second wind if it thinks it can a score an easy victory without acknowledging its enduring power.  At this juncture, it’s  true that one  early outcome of the Brexit confusion leaning towards a hard Brexit is that Nicola Sturgeon’s calculations have become more complicated. On the eve of the SNP annual conference former Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill …

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