Graphic Recording the BIG Election Hangover

Friday turned out a great night. David McCann summed it up well. I did some live drawing of the guests and also did a graphic recording of each of the main speakers, Simon Hamilton, NILGA’s Derek McCallan and Tim McGarry. Each address was memorable and hopefully those who were there will be able to enjoy these and for those who weren’t there, you can get an idea of what was said.   And of course, the Finance Minister as turkey …

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Note to self on predicting elections: use the other finger next time…

I don’t normally scatter too many hostages to fortune, but in a fit of foolish madness I decided to furnish the world of Twitter with my great wisdom on how the parties would fare, before the election… The DUP will perform significantly better in #LE14 than #EP14. Competition from UKIP & TUV will hollow out their EuroSceptic credentials. — Mick Fealty (@mickfealty) May 22, 2014 So what did you get wrong, or right about what happened last weekend? Mick FealtyMick …

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Cartoon – The scalper

Brian SpencerBrian is a writer, artist, political cartoonist and legal blogger. Actively tweeting from @brianjohnspencr. More information here: http://www.brianjohnspencer.com/ www.brianjohnspencer.com/

NI Local Government: results at a glance

As Nicholas said, “This is an election with few dramatic changes.” But, for the record, here are the %s of all the first preference votes from the Northern Ireland Local Government elections. [Updated 462 of 462 seats allocated] Party 1st Pref. +/-*  Seats    DUP  23.1%  -4.1%  130    SF  24.1%  -0.7%  105    UUP  16.1%  +0.9%  88    SDLP  13.6%  -1.4%  66    Others  16.5%  +6.1%  41    Alliance  6.7%  -0.7%  32 *Comparison with First Preference Share in 2011 What drama there is …

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“What has changed is that it is a clear message to the people of Northern Ireland that NI21 is a cross-community party…”

According to a BBC report, the NI21 party executive has announced a policy change on the eve of the party’s first foray into an actual election.  From the BBC report NI21 has announced it will change its designation at the Northern Ireland Assembly from unionist to ‘other’. The party’s executive took the decision ahead of Thursday’s European and local government elections. NI21 was set up by MLAs Basil McCrea and John McCallister, after they quit the Ulster Unionist Party in …

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How did you score the candidates on last night’s #EP14 debate…

So, the UTV debate last night. If you haven’t watch it, do. It’s not pleasant, but it’s very instructive on the shockingly poor quality of the main party candidates (see Ronan Mullen from the RTE PrimeTime debate, h/t Suzanne, for comparison). The format is not kind to any one wanting to push out anything more than a populist soundbite. Will it make any difference? Sadly, I doubt it. Electorates across Europe are more likely to settle local and national scores …

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Castlereagh South, Sinn Fein and the new Girl on the block

I had an interesting conversation recently with the Sinn Fein candidate for Castlereagh South, Nuala Toman. Being honest, I was hoping for an insight into Sinn Fein strategy for the forthcoming elections and, perhaps, a snappy line that I might use as a headline for this article to engage readers. What I got was a smart, friendly, local political candidate who surprised me with her knowledge, intelligence and experience, and disarmed me somewhat with her candour and focus on the …

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“Sinn Fein in the North are more Teflon than your granny’s old frying pan…”

Tom Kelly’s column in the Irish News today offers this explanation the upcoming success of Sinn Fein in the north and the south: Sinn Fein’s greatest strengths are its twin planks of discipline and an ability to learn lessons fast. Add into the mix its utter shamelessness in doing “u-turns” faster than Ayrton Senna with make moves that would embarrass Max Mosley. While other parties agonise like St. Peter in the Garden of Gethsemane – Sinn Fein just do it …

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Where are the #LE14 hotspot boxes going to be on Thursday?

So below is a list of the new councils for the Local Elections in Northern Ireland, along with suggested hashtags. These are all pretty obvious, and I’ve not tested any of them, so if you find major clashes with others let us know? Belfast City Council (#BCC) North Down and Ards District Council (#NDA) Antrim and Newtownabbey District Council (#AND) Lisburn and Castlereagh District Council (#LCD) Newry, Mourne and Down District Council (#NMD) Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon District Council (#ABC) Mid and …

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Negative Campaigning-Does it work?

You got to go negative Lee Atwater, Advisor to President George HW Bush Those words from Atwater came in the summer of 1988 when Bush trailed his Democratic opponent Governor, Mike Dukakis. The Bush campaign developed some famous negative ads in election history with the ‘revolving door prison’ ad being the most remembered. Closer to home the Conservatives in 1992 fighting a tough election came up with a very clever ad called Labour’s tax bombshell. Like Bush in 88, the …

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Sinn Fein’s Demographic war for constitutional change is useless without middle class

Interesting take from Denis Bradley on Friday on the current impasse. In it, he accurately describes the model as I suspect SF see it: While an unreformed DUP occupy one of the corners in the boxing ring, Sinn Fein are in no danger of being removed as their opponent in the other corner. Our history and our divided loyalties have tied us into an incessant battle of numbers – the majority living in fear of becoming the minority and the …

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Young people and the upcoming elections

What is it that we look for in our politicians is it experience, judgement or is it youth? I ask this as over the past few weeks on Twitter parties from all sides seem to be nominating younger people (18-30 years old) to contest the upcoming elections. As I have pointed out in a previous post-Northern Ireland actually does well in getting younger people into the assembly when compared to the rest of the UK. However, despite this rise of …

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Sinn Fein-rumours of the party’s rise greatly exaggerated?

I’m guessing you all know the drill by now. Over the past few weeks I have been doing an analysis of all the political parties’ electoral performances at an assembly level since 1998. This week I am focusing on Sinn Fein. Next month will mark the tenth anniversary of the party becoming the largest force in Nationalist politics in the assembly. So this makes now an apt time to look at where Sinn Fein are growing and where they are still …

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Alliance party-Is it really the Belfast party?

I often think of the Alliance party as the Helen Lovejoy of Northern Ireland politics. They are well intentioned but have suffered from a ‘do gooder’ image that they at times project out. In my last piece on the SDLP and UUP, I was very pessimistic about the future of those parties going forward. However, with the Alliance party, I would not make the same assessment as I think they do occupy a space in Northern Ireland politics that very few …

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SDLP yet to choose its candidate, but the clock is ticking…

Tom Kelly asks, after the bloodless coup of south Belfast (which he attributes to speed and accommodation), the glaring gap in the SDLP’s defences is the European Parliament elections next year. Less than a year to go, and both Sinn Fein and the DUP have been getting their candidates settled in to their relatively new positions. Diane Dodds has been meeting small groups of farmers all over Northern Ireland and providing workshops for people on how to access support. For …

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Stormont’s falling turnout is the reason it is losing touch with wider public opinion

This is David McCann arguing that the current malaise in Northern Irish politics has its roots in the fact that no less than 160,000 people stopped voting after 1998. From  June 1998 to March 2011 electoral turnout dropped from 70% to 54.5%. Whilst the UUP and the SDLP lost a staggering 84,000 votes each, SF only picked up 35,000 and the DUP 52,000. McCann’s thesis is that this disengagement is a prime cause of the subsequent drift of Stormont politics from the concerns of …

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Meath East: We’ve seen it all before

Irish by-elections, by and large, are a bit of harmless fun. The outcome rarely influences the balance of forces in parliament, but it gives the voters a chance to give the incumbent party – whatever incumbent party – a good shoeing. Everyone feels better about themselves except whatever hapless candidate has been persuaded to stand by the ruling party. Famously, no government party had won a by-election for 30 years until Patrick Nulty stood under the Labour banner in 2011 – and he was an opposition politician in all but name, remedying even that within a couple of months.

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#MHE: the devil will be in the detail

This Wednesday voters go to the ballot box in the Meath East by-election. With a large government majority (albeit as a coalition), the outcome of the by-election will have no functional impact on the Dáil arithmetic. Given the circumstances of the by-election, which has arisen due to Fine Gael TD and junior Minister Sean McEntee taking his own life, it seems quite likely that his 26 year old daughter, Helen, will take the seat. His death prompted Fine Gael TDs to blame social media criticism either due to the …

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Eastleigh: Bad for Tories, Better for LDs, Best for UKIP

So the LibDems held on to Eastleigh by a narrow majority of 1,771 or just 4.3%, with UKIP surging into second place. Alex Massie in the Speccie warns against overanalysing by-elections, while Martin Kettle argued last week in the Guardian that this was the most crucial by-election in decades. I’m inclined to agree with Kettle – I think this could well be a by-election that sets the psephological scene for the next election. I wonder will this be a ‘canary …

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Italy’s Five Star Movement – is this what The End of History looks like?

In 1992, Francis Fukayama predicted in The End of History that the end of the Cold War would impend not only an era of triumphant liberal-democratic capitalism, but one where political evolution had reached its final form. Western democracy, he argued, was the best form of state organisation practically achievable by humans. The folly of such naïve Western triumphalism, already being challenged by China’s authoritarian wave of economic growth when Fukayama wrote his book, was laid bare by Mohamed Atta …

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