elections – Slugger O'Toole

Pushing Boundaries: A century of change in the politics of Belfast

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on April 23, 2024, 10:46 pm

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Nicholas Whyte delivering lecture on Belfast constituency boundaries in his role as a Visiting Professor at Ulster University.

Nicholas Whyte is no stranger to this parish. Among his interests are international diplomacy, election data, and science fiction awards … at times all three of those even manage to combine. This evening he was lecturing at Ulster University as a Visiting Professor of Politics on the topic of “Pushing Boundaries: A century of change in the politics of Belfast”. He also touched on the thorny issue of “Where is the Devenish?” You can watch back the lecture and the …

Slugger TV – Looming Elections and Political Futures #ImagineBelfast

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on March 26, 2024, 8:30 am

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Filmed in front of a live audience at the Imagine! Festival of Ideas and Politics, Slugger O’Toole convened a panel to discuss the year of elections that await us, and the political futures of some of the key figures who will be fighting for their seats and their jobs. Back on the evening of Friday 22 March, David McCann was joined by University of Liverpool Professor Jon Tonge, Deputy Director of political consultancy Stratagem Anna Mercer, and the Belfast Telegraph’s …

Looming Elections & Political Futures – Slugger’s event on 22 March at #ImagineBelfast

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on March 7, 2024, 7:00 am

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DUP's Ian Paisley (Junior) trying to tally the European election ballot papers (which must be placed upside down after verification) back in 2009 - photo by Alan Meban @alaninbelfast

The next 12 months will be fertile ground for election nerds. So we’re convening a panel of experts on Friday 22 March to discuss which way the political wind is blowing as part of this month’s Imagine! Festival of Ideas and Politics. The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 28 January 2025. The deadline for the next Irish general election is 22 March 2025. Both polls are likely to see big political swings and will …

New Book Lifts Lid on NI Elections During Troubles…

Steve Bradley on September 13, 2022, 12:14 pm

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The Derryman who ran the elections in Northern Ireland during The Troubles – before going on to work as an electoral advisor for the UN and EU around the world – has written a book about his experiences. ‘Ballots, Bombs and Bullets’ is the memoir of former NI Chief Electoral Officer Pat Bradley. The book is the story of how someone with no background and very little training in electoral law and process found himself in charge of Northern Ireland’s …

How Might Differential Constituency Turnout Affect a NI Referendum?

Philip McGuinness on August 25, 2021, 8:22 am

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Recently I speculated on how differential turnout could impact on any future referendum on a United Ireland. Having done a bit of number-crunching since then on Assembly election results since the seventies, focusing on the post-GFA elections in particular, the answer seems to be: six years. Differential constituency turnout means that the turnout varies between constituencies. Stating the bleedin’ obvious, I know, but there seems to be a political edge to it in NI. Border (mostly nationalist) constituencies have greater …

What if NI Voted by County? Analysing the 2019 Local Election Results…

Philip McGuinness on July 27, 2021, 8:09 am

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It would be interesting to compare current voting patterns with those of 1921 when NI came into being. The exact location of Northern Ireland’s land border – once Thomas Agar-Robartes, MP, let the partition cat out of the Home-Rule bag in 1912 – was always going to be by county, given the Westminster constituency boundaries and census returns at the time. Today’s Westminster, Stormont and local government constituency/electoral area boundaries cross the six county boundaries more often than they did …

“As explained in detail to Sinn Féin and previously…”

Pete Baker on February 12, 2021, 3:22 pm

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News that the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland is to canvass all households this summer, for the first time since 2013 and a year later than planned, in order to update the electoral register – unlike the rest of the UK which has an annual canvass process – has the Sinn Féin MP for West Belfast, Paul Maskey, reaching for a page from the Donald Trump electioneering playbook. From the BBC report The canvass is legally required by the UK …

Time to Reform First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) for Westminster Elections?

Philip McGuinness on June 30, 2020, 8:47 am

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In the 2019 Westminster general election in Northern Ireland, the 18 successful candidates gained 359,000 votes out of a valid poll of 799,034. This represents only 44.9% of the electorate. A clear majority of voters are not represented in Westminster. Unionist voters in border areas are not represented; nationalist voters from North Antrim to Upper Bann to Strangford are not represented. Twice as many Alliance voters are unrepresented as are represented. The DUP garnered 30.6% of the vote and won …

This Strangely Misfiring Tory Campaign Just Makes Me Wonder

Gerry Lynch on December 8, 2019, 8:00 am

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This is a very strange election campaign from the Conservatives. The Tory messaging for the final week is all wrong. My browser is full of Tory ads calling on me to “Get Brexit Done” when everyone knows Boris is all about that; if anything, they risk alienating the key group of Remainers who voted Tory in 2017. The Tories are currently hanging on to just five-eighths of these voters, and any further slippage could be fatal. As far as potential …

Big spend didn’t guarantee success in Euro poll

Niall Kelly on October 4, 2019, 2:29 pm

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The big winner of the European Election was the Alliance’s Naomi Long who managed to increase her party’s share of the vote by from 7.1% five years ago to 18.5%, winning a seat from the Ulster Unionists. For the other parties it was a mixed bag: Sinn Féin only took the third seat having taken the first seat in the previous two elections; the SDLP thought they could win back the seat they lost in 2004 but didn’t even come …

Aontú: Their impact on Sinn Féin and the SDLP

Niall Kelly on October 3, 2019, 3:07 pm

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Aontú have so far secured four council seats (albeit temporarily and not concurrently) in the North since they were founded in January 2019: two people from the SDLP gene pool and two from the Sinn Féin gene pool. Before the local government election, sitting councillors Fergal Lennon (Sinn Féin – Craigavon) and Rosemarie Shields (SDLP – Mid Tyrone) left their parties and joined Aontú. Neither of these two candidates were successful in that election and the sole elected Aontú councillor …

Defecting councillors: The winners and losers

Niall Kelly on September 30, 2019, 8:03 pm

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Cllr. Denise Mullen’s recent decision to leave the SDLP and join Aontú, less than three months after she was successfully re-elected to Mid Ulster Council, has provoked a flurry of questions about politicians who are elected for one party but then switch to another. Is the current system fair? Standing on a party ticket and then dropping party so quickly after an election is noticeable. Should the rules be changed? Should people have to put themselves before the electorate again? …

Taking Boris to Court is Really, Really, Stupid

Gerry Lynch on May 29, 2019, 2:11 pm

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I can’t believe how many people on my social media feeds are cheering on the unbelievably anti-democratic and morally wrong court case against Boris Johnson over the notorious £350m a week bus slogan. But even for those who can’t see this as wrong, the stupidity of giving a master charlatan and showman like Boris Johnson his day in court should be obvious. I have wider worries than Boris backflipping his prosecutors and using this case as a means to …

An Ode To The Tallymen

Niall Kelly on May 28, 2019, 11:52 am

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For many people involved in election campaigns, come 10pm on polling day the work is done; the voters have had their say and the result is in the lap of the gods. After a long day of standing outside polling stations, trying to influence every voter entering, comes the even longer day (or days) that is the count. Many candidates don’t know what to do with themselves on the day of the count; famously former Irish Labour leader Ruairi Quinn …

Is it time to talk about compulsory voting?

David McCann on May 24, 2019, 1:39 pm

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For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you will know outside of Irish politics, my other main interest is Australia. Like us, the Australians held an election last Saturday to decide who would govern over the next three years. Unlike us, however, Australia has a system of compulsory voting. No, you’re not put in prison if you don’t vote, rather you have turn up at the polling station (you can also postal vote or pre-poll) Here is the …

How to solve a problem like election posters

Niall Kelly on April 24, 2019, 11:51 am

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five posters, four parties, one lamppost

A discussion has broken out in the South about the erection of election posters in Dalkey, after Dalkey Tidy Towns had declared a no go area for them and warned that any such posters put up in the area would be “removed and destroyed.” This seems to be part of the wider Poster Free campaign which claims to have signed up over 160 “towns/areas” to having no plastic election posters through campaigns run by a number of TidyTowns organisations, but …

Some thoughts about #le19

David McCann on February 15, 2019, 2:45 pm

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We are less than 100 days away from the Local Council elections in Northern Ireland which are set to take place on May 2nd. As candidates are selected and the campaign gets under way I thought I’d put up some things to watch out for in this election. Context is King-Before you look at the election that is coming up, you need to remind yourself about the circumstances of the previous one. In 2014, we were beginning to see the …

Seanad Votes for Nordie and Other TCD/NUI Graduates – Last Few Weeks to Register

Claire Mitchell on February 1, 2019, 11:31 am

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There is an increasing desire amongst many in the north to participate more in southern politics – especially in recent times when the island feels more interconnected and many feel personally involved in, if disenfranchised from, southern politics. While we await the outcome of the planned referendum on extending the franchise for the Irish Presidential elections, there is a way that some can get involved right now. If you’re a NUI or TCD graduate, and an Irish citizen, you’re eligible to …

If #WeDeserveBetter, We’ll Have To Vote For It

Gerry Lynch on August 28, 2018, 10:22 pm

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I really want to be supportive of the #WeDeserveBetter movement. I think it’s a great thing when thousands of people come on to the streets to encourage the political compromise without which power-sharing cannot work. But really, do #WeDeserveBetter when ‘we’, the people of Northern Ireland, have collectively rewarded the DUP and Sinn Féin for taking the stances they have? Well into the period of stalemate, in last June’s General Election, the DUP and Sinn Féin were ‘punished’ by the …

The Future of Referendums: What Role Should They Play and How Should They Be Conducted?

Queen’s Policy Engagement on April 13, 2018, 4:01 pm

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Referendums are now established as part of the UK’s political landscape. They are widely seen as necessary before some fundamental constitutional changes are made. Politicians will continue from time to time to find it useful to manage conflicts by proposing to put certain decisions to the people. Yet, despite their importance, there has been little concerted thinking recently about how referendums should be conducted. Two inquiries conducted in the 1990s – by the Nairne Commission and the Committee on Standards …