With the best will in the world, you can’t know what you’re voting for today

Let’s begin at (your) home. After all the mystery and muttering about tactics after the election, do you know which main party the DUP would support in government? I don’t. But Nigel Dodds sounds as if he’s nuzzling up to the Tories again with or without an overall majority     There is no doubt that if we reach a tariff-free trade deal with the European Union, that will eliminate the need for most if not all customs checks..I sincerely hope …

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On border checks the evidence from his own government mounts but Boris keeps brazening out the denial

It’s more than depressing when the prime minister keeps brazening out denials about checks between GB and NI. He actually contradicts himself between “ no checks” and  “the only checks” within a couple of sentences below. When asked on Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday whether there would be checks, in light of the leaked Treasury document, Johnson replied: “No, absolutely not… The deal we’ve done with the EU is a brilliant deal and it allows us to do all …

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Back to Stormont soon and Johnson’s deal could work, say DUP and Sinn Fein. Dreams coming true or fake news?

Is there an election on? DUP And Sinn Fein leaders are sounding optimistic notes to tempt waverers into the polling stations. Both party leaderships are also forecasting a return to Stormont any day now – without troubling us with the details of a deal.  Here we also have the astounding phenomenon of Nigel Dodds and Mary Lou McDonald both speaking in favour of Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement – a worse deal that Theresa May’s and which they were condemning only …

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What to look out for next week

Image result for northern ireland election count

It’s nearly all over as Northern Ireland faces its third general election in just four years. As we get ready to head back to the polls, I thought it would be useful to pull together some things for you to look out for For the UK wide picture as soon as it hits 10pm the main networks BBC, ITV and SKY News will publish the results of their exit poll, be cautious about other polls out there! The main exit …

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The backtop is back in business after Johnson’s denial is nakedly exposed

It’s not actually  news that there will “be a border down the Irish Sea” if Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement is passed. But if the document Jeremy Corbyn has been waving this morning is an authentic Treasury paper, it shows that Johnson is lying or at best or in denial.   He will surely be pressed to explain himself in tonight’s BBC debate with Jeremy Corbyn.  Taken at face value it means Johnson will denounce his own withdrawal agreement as soon as …

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Losing Belfast City – the Unionist retreat?

Losing the City of Belfast at the forthcoming election will do massive psychological damage to unionism. After the calamity of RHI, many in my family happily told of how they would not be exercising their vote at the Assembly election held after Martin McGuinness’ dramatic resignation in 2016 and especially in the second election called the next year. When the tally had come through in the 2017 election it was like a punch in the gut to some in the …

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For Northern Ireland and the Union, the choices after the election are all to play for

Peering into a crystal ball however cloudy is as irresistible for the curious voter as the compulsive gambler. Favourable predictions for the Conservatives range from an overall majority of over 100 to fewer MPs than May won in 2017 but still the largest party. Serious hopes of a Labour majority are round about nil. They are likely to need the support on some basis of minority parties, the SNP, the Lib Dems and who knows? – even the DUP. Johnson’s …

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The voters sense that the DUP and Sinn Fein are all at sea. What are they to make of it?

Pity the local voter, trying to discover a clear outcome in this election.  Anoraks may shiver with anticipation at the prospect of change in a couple of local seats but what are they claiming for turnout? Who could blame the people for staying away?  Voting for the Union or Remain or bringing a border poll closer doesn’t come close to guaranteeing any of these outcomes.  The secretary of state has floated the idea of deciding on an Assembly election in …

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Northern Ireland looks set for the most unpredictable general election in its history

With the names of the candidates for this year’s general election finalized, Northern Ireland looks set to have an uncharacteristically unpredictable election, with seemingly competitive races in 10 of its 18 constituencies. The chart above shows the results of this week’s new LucidTalk poll, compared with the poll from August this year and previous election results. It suggests that support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen back from levels at previous elections, and that Alliance have built on …

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Women, Northern Ireland and the 2019 General Election

Clare Rice is Research Assistant on the ‘Performing Identities: Post-Brexit Northern Ireland and the reshaping of 21st Century Governance’ project at Newcastle University, a PhD Candidate and TA at QUB, and an occasional commentator. Twitter: @Clare_Rice_ We are less than a week into the 2019 Westminster election campaign and already we have seen a concerning pattern begin to emerge. It isn’t unusual for sizeable numbers of MPs to decide to step down from elected politics (see this useful overview), but …

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Slugger TV looks at the UUP and the DUP

Slugger TV: Episode 31 from Northern Visions NvTv on Vimeo. This month’s Slugger TV assesses the incoming UUP Leader and looks back at the recent DUP conference. David McCann was joined in the NVTV studio by former DUP SPAD Tim Cairns and the commentator Sarah Creighton. If you require subtitles please watch the YouTube version below and turn on the captions. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter …

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“Next Generation Unionism?”

As anger over Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement grows, one group of unionists has put out an “anti-betrayal act” poster. It sums up the current state of unionism. The poster portrays a baying mob with pitchforks. Apparently all unionist men dress like junior members of The Bar Library and work in an office. The language used is macho and patriarchal. There are no women on the poster, presumably because they’re all at home rolling their eyes. The poster comes at a …

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DUP Conference – subdued members reminded that NI has new identities that need space to grow and prosper #dup19

The DUP conference included multiple references to ‘next generation unionism’. The days of Union Flags being left on delegates’ seats to be waved with proud fervour during the leaders’ speech now seem to be over. Shouts of “for she’s a jolly good fellow” have also been banished, along with Willie McCrea’s singing from the front. The conference is now more sober in its organisation, as is the mood.

DUP’s Paul Givan wrote to AG yesterday (not in June) asking if NI Assembly had legislative competence to pass Protection of Unborn Child Act at its sitting on 21 October 2019

Read through the Private Members Bill that the DUP tried to bring before the NI Assembly using Standing Order 77 this morning. This post previously claimed that the DUP had written to the Attorney General about the bill on 20 June. A DUP spokesperson rebutts that claim: “This was a typing error. The date should have read 20th October rather than 20th June.” Hopefully their bill drafting was more accurate than the letter-writing …

Now and Then

TW: This article contains references to sexual and domestic violence. On the 24th October 2017, the UK Supreme Court considered Northern Ireland’s abortion laws. The case was taken by the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission. In its judgment on the 7th June 2018, the Court found that the Commission did not have standing to take the case but found, obiter, that Northern Ireland’s laws breached Article 8 of the European Convention of Human Rights. The High Court in Belfast made …

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Total Recall: Assembly Edition

Last week 31 MLAs including the DUP, TUV and UUP signed a petition and sent it to the Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly. That petition has led to a recall of the institutions. Tomorrow, the Assembly will sit for the first time since the death of Martin McGuinness. The prospect of the Assembly meeting again has many people raising questions. Can MLAs stop the introduction same sex marriage and abortion reform? Is there any prospect of a government being …

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Change Is Coming, And The DUP Can’t Do Anything About It…

It still doesn’t feel real, the prospect that marriage equality and abortion reform will become legal realities on Monday the 21st October, but here we are. I’m not counting my chickens before they hatch but as someone who has been at the forefront of the marriage equality campaign for the guts of a decade, it’s strange to see the culmination of the work you’ve been doing with fellow travellers for the last eight years come to fruition. I remember that …

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The Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament.

Statement in from the DUP “Following confirmation from the Prime Minister that he believes he has secured a “great new deal” with the European Union the Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament. The Democratic Unionist Party has worked since the referendum result to secure a negotiated deal as we leave the European Union. We have been consistent that we will only ever consider supporting arrangements that are in Northern Ireland’s long-term economic and constitutional …

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DUP Leader backs recalling the Assembly

Arlene Foster; “We would support this call. Our Assembly team met on Monday and agreed to seek a recall of the Assembly. Our MLAs will return to the Chamber without pre-condition. There are serious matters emanating from the NI (Executive Formation etc) Act 2019 which should be decisions made in Stormont. We urge other MLAs who oppose the extreme liberalisation of our abortion law, to step outside any Party shackles and join us in recalling the Assembly. It’s time to …

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