With the best will in the world, you can’t know what you’re voting for today

Let’s begin at (your) home. After all the mystery and muttering about tactics after the election, do you know which main party the DUP would support in government? I don’t. But Nigel Dodds sounds as if he’s nuzzling up to the Tories again with or without an overall majority    

There is no doubt that if we reach a tariff-free trade deal with the European Union, that will eliminate the need for most if not all customs checks..I sincerely hope that will be the case. It should certainly be the stated objective of the British government – and indeed the Irish government, to be fair. Certainly that would go a long way,  in the long run, to alleviate most of these problems about checks. .

The UK in a Changing Europe, a think tank nearest to objectivity as it gets, doubts whether  the very different pledges on Brexit made by the Conservatives and Labour are deliverable.

The Conservatives are correct to claim that a majority would allow them to ensure that the UK leaves the EU by the end of January. But whether Brexit will feel “done” at that point, given the future relationship negotiations that will follow immediately, is another matter entirely. The refusal to countenance an extension beyond December 2020 means they are putting themselves — and the EU — under tremendous pressure to agree and sign-off a trade deal by that date.

When it comes to the Labour Party, practical problems are again glossed over.Yes, a new deal could be negotiated with the EU, though it may not be as plain sailing as Labour assumes, and whether, in practice, renegotiation could be completed and a referendum held on the outcome within six months is, at best, open to question. Moreover, there will be no final deal to vote on in that referendum. A Labour government would have negotiated a non-binding political declaration.

The ambition to define a closer relationship with the EU than that proposed by the Conservatives is clear – but the detail is not. We don’t know what they mean by ‘close alignment with the single market’ nor what ‘joint UK-EU trade deals’ might imply.

The former could mean anything from something implying significant new non-tariff barriers to full participation in the single market. As for the latter, if the party is after anything more than early consultation on deals, it stands to be disappointed.

For an issue so central to the future of the UK economy, the manifestos are strangely reluctant to talk about the impact of Brexit – and how it will affect their ability to finance the bigger state they all seek.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies doesn’t think either party’s tax and spend policies are credible.

Should they win this time it is highly likely that the Conservatives would end up spending more than their manifesto implies and thus taxing or borrowing more. The chances of holding spending down as they propose over a five-year parliament look remote. Why have they been so immensely modest in their proposals? Because to do otherwise would either mean resiling from their pledge to balance the current budget or would mean being up front about the need for tax rises to avoid breaking that pledge.

Labour would not be able to deliver investment spending increases on the scale they promise. The public sector doesn’t have the capacity to ramp up that much, that fast.

UCL’s Constitution Unit concentrates on Labour as  the immediate  political options are less clear because they would  need minority government support  –  including   whether the Labour  leader should even be the head of  a Labour-led  government

Who should be PM?

Jeremy Corbyn is clearly for many a controversial figure, and Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson in particular has stated repeatedly that her party’s votes would not support him as Prime Minister, suggesting that she would find it easier to work with Labour if he stepped down. How much power she could exert in this situation is disputed, 

On Brexit..

A further referendum is a near-certainty in a hung parliament situation (even if that resulted in a minority Conservative government)..   Pretty much the only question about inter-party compromise that has been canvassed during the election campaign concerns another putative referendum – on Scottish independence.

… this is a real sticking point. But given the firm commitment of all parties to prioritise a Brexit referendum, plus Labour’s clear position on Scottish independence, and the strains on both politicians and public that would result from two referendums within a year, the Conservatives’ claim looks ill-founded. More likely, the Brexit referendum would be proceeded with on a fast timetable, and discussions on an independence referendum would stretch out beyond May 2021..

On tax and spend

Focus on Labour’s economic policy – such as its tax or nationalisation plans – might usefully have been tempered by journalists asking questions of the other parties about the extent to which they would accept such plans, or how they might be softened as a result of negotiation. In a country where hung parliaments are more frequent, debate about the likely compromises between parties would be far more upfront during the campaign. Instead, the UK’s legacy of single-party majority government (notwithstanding the fact that this situation has applied for just two of the last nine years) has led to parties and journalists alike avoiding such questions. This, in turn, risks leaving the public ill-informed about the real prospects post-election.

But this begs the question of whether the basis for  any policy compromise is well founded. If political parties were like big businesses, their board would be fired in six months after their share price had plummeted. Away from the resources of government, policy making is incredibility amateurish. That’s why so many commentators hang on every word from the think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies and why manifestos are unreliable guides as to what is put into practice. Huge themes are left out, like Brexit’s threat to the car industry along with the phasing out of diesel and eventually petrol vehicles. The industry although no longer British owned was painstakingly rebuilt after its first destruction in the 1970s and 80s. and could suffer the same fate again.

So almost everything will remain in flux tomorrow morning, whoever becomes prime minister.

Brian Walker

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London