Northern Ireland looks set for the most unpredictable general election in its history

With the names of the candidates for this year’s general election finalized, Northern Ireland looks set to have an uncharacteristically unpredictable election, with seemingly competitive races in 10 of its 18 constituencies.

The chart above shows the results of this week’s new LucidTalk poll, compared with the poll from August this year and previous election results. It suggests that support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen back from levels at previous elections, and that Alliance have built on their strong showing at the local elections even if their support has fallen since the summer. It’s worth noting that this poll was conducted before the announcement of the various pacts and Sylvia Hermon’s announcement that she won’t be seeking re-election in North Down.

Among Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies, there are eight that are foregone conclusions. These are Sinn Féin’s seats in West Belfast, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Newry & Armagh, and the DUP seats in North Antrim, East Londonderry, Upper Bann and Lagan Valley. The last two of these could, in theory, be seen as targets for Sinn Féin and Alliance respectively, but the prospects of the DUP losing either in this electoral cycle are extremely remote.

There are competitive races in three Belfast seats at this election. In the charts below, I’ve broken down party support for elections since 2010, as well as the “bloc” (i.e. nationalist, unionist, or other) that parties use (or independent candidates would use) to designate themselves at the Northern Ireland Assembly.

There are, of course, valid objections to banding parties together in this way, but it should give a reasonable idea of the voting profile of each constituency. The “nationalist” group includes the SDLP, Sinn Féin, minor nationalist parties and nationalist independents; the “unionist” group includes the DUP, the UUP, the TUV, minor unionist parties and unionist independents; and the “other” group includes Alliance, the Green Party, People Before Profit, other minor parties and other independents. Council results have been re-allocated from council DEAs to Westminster constituencies. The chart below shows the vote for each bloc for all of Northern Ireland since 2010.

North Belfast is possibly the highest profile contest at this election, where DUP parliamentary party leader Nigel Dodds faces a tough re-election contest against John Finucane of Sinn Féin.

The nationalist and unionist vote has been essentially neck and neck over the last three elections. This year is unique in that the SDLP aren’t running in the constituency. The SDLP polled poorly at the last general election and the combined SDLP and Sinn Féin total wouldn’t have exceeded Nigel Dodds’ vote (albeit by only 23 votes), and it can’t be assumed that all of the SDLP votes will transfer to Finucane.

At both the 2015 and 2017 general elections, the “others” voting bloc was squeezed in North Belfast, but it appears that the Sinn Féin and the DUP benefited equally from this. The contest in North Belfast is likely to be very close.

South Belfast looks set to be an interesting contest, where the sitting MP Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP faces an extremely difficult re-election contest.

The nationalist, unionist and other voting blocs in South Belfast are all roughly the same size, and it is an unusual example of a seat where the nationalist vote has fallen significantly the course of the decade. Despite the growth of the non-aligned vote, Claire Hanna of the SDLP is the strong favourite to win the seat, given that Sinn Féin are not running and she has been endorsed by Green Party MLA Clare Bailey.

East Belfast, where Alliance Party leader and recently elected MEP Naomi Long will be taking on Gavin Robinson of the DUP for the third time, looks set to be a very close contest this year.

Naomi Long’s campaign to regain the seat lost in 2015 will be made easier by the fact that neither the SDLP, Sinn Féin nor the Green Party will be running. Whilst the nationalist and Green vote was small at the last Westminster election (3.8% combined in 2017) it will certainly help if, as seems likely, the majority of this vote will transfer to Alliance.

Despite Alliance being (just about) the largest party at this year’s local elections, the DUP are probably favourites to retain the seat, but it will be a very competitive race. However, East Belfast doesn’t present the best chance for Alliance to win a Westminster seat, as this can be found in neighbouring North Down.

There has been a remarkable swing from the unionist to other bloc over the course of the 2010s, and at this year’s local elections candidates from the non-aligned bloc received 44.5% of first preference votes. Given the remarkably selfless decision of the Green Party not to run a candidate (neither of the two main nationalist parties, who received 2.4% in 2017, are running candidates either), Stephen Farry of the Alliance Party is in a strong position to win the seat formerly held by independent unionist Sylvia Hermon.

Another contest to watch will be in South Antrim, which is a three way contest between the DUP, the UUP and the Alliance Party.

The UUP won South Antrim from the DUP in 2015, only to lose it back to them in 2017. There has been steady growth in the non-aligned vote over the course of the decade, but the unionist vote is still comfortably over 50%.

The UUP will be hoping to emulate their successful result in 2015, but an evenly unionist vote could allow Alliance to sneak through the middle. Alliance will be hoping for tactical votes from nationalist voters; Sinn Féin received 18% of the vote in 2017, and the SDLP 5.5%. However, from the 2017 general election it appears that some Alliance supporters voted tactically for the UUP in an attempt to keep the DUP out. It is all quite complicated.

As ever, Fermanagh and South Tyrone will be doing its thing.

The party chart for Fermanagh and South Tyrone looks bizarre as, even though the DUP are the largest unionist party, the UUP traditionally gets a free run against Sinn Féin. It is usually extremely close between the two parties, and it is likely to be so again this time. Independent candidate Rodney Connor has been counted as a UUP candidate in 2010.

It’s been considered a safe DUP seat for some time, but Strangford could be one to keep an eye out for.

There has been a significant swing from unionist to “other” parties over the course of this decade, and the total non-aligned vote exceeded 30% at this year’s local elections; the nationalist vote has plateaued at around 10%. Jim Shannon received over 60% of the vote at the 2017 general election, but received less than 45% at the 2015 poll. It is just about in range for Kellie Armstrong of the Alliance Party, given an extremely good wind with nationalist tactical voting and the DUP vote returning to 2015 levels.

Another potentially competitive, albeit being very unlikely to change hands, constituency is the East Antrim seat held by Sammy Wilson (aka Samuel Sammy) of the DUP.

As with Strangford, there has been significant growth in the non-aligned vote since 2010, and Alliance have a chance if the DUP vote falls back to 2015 levels. Wilson only received 36% of the vote in 2015, albeit the TUV and Ukip polled 17% between them at that election, neither of whom are running this year. Realistically, if Alliance can put down a marker here by exceeding 25% of the vote, they may be placing themselves well to contest the seat in (possibly) 2024.

The last two competitive races are the seats Sinn Féin are defending in Foyle and South Down that they won from the SDLP in 2017. The SDLP are likely to regain Foyle, and whilst regaining South Down is much less likely it is a possibility.

With a couple of seats very likely to change hands, some too-close-to-call races, and interesting things to watch out for in contests that have been foregone conclusions for years, this looks set to be a fascinating general election in Northern Ireland. At least there will be some entertainment in the early hours of the 13^th of December if the election in Great Britain ends up being a bit of a damp squib.