GE2019

#GE2024 postal ballot and proxy vote statistics

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Bar chart showing 2019 and 2024 valid postal ballots returned and included in the General Election poll by constituency along with the percentage change in postal ballots returned and proxy votes issued between 2019 and 2024 by constituency.

With the 4 July General Election being called during school holidays in Northern Ireland (and much of Scotland), was there an increase in the number of postal ballots and proxy votes issued? Yes and no. The statistics for 2024 have been published by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland this afternoon. (link to 2019 stats) Postal Ballots The number of postal ballots issued jumped from 16,993 in GE2019 to 25,747 in GE2024. That’s a 52% increase. Not every postal ballot …

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Visualising majorities #GE2024

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Chart showing the size of Northern Ireland constituency majorities at the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, sorted in order of increasing majorities in 2024

Until I looked the constituency majorities together for the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, I hadn’t spotted that the sweet spot for Alliance is a shade under three thousand votes for their wins at both elections. Two versions of the chart: one in order of increasing majority at GE2019, the other in order of increasing majority at GE2024. I find my eye catches different details and looks for different stories depending on whether the focus is on the old or …

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Northern Ireland #GE2019 results roundup

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With the results of the 2019 general election in, it is clear that the results of the local and European elections earlier this year were no fluke and the surge of the centre ground in Northern Ireland politics looks here to stay. The chart above shows how the parties performed in terms of vote share at this election, compared with all Northern Ireland elections over the course of the decade. The total unionist vote being at 43% is the “new …

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The Slugger Big Bumper UK General Election Results Live Blog!

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Brian O'NeillI help to manage Slugger by taking care of the site as well as running our live events. My background is in business, marketing and IT. My politics tend towards middle-of-the-road pragmatism, I am not a member of any political party. Oddly for a member of the Slugger team, I am not that interested in daily politics, preferring to write about big ideas in society. When not stuck in front of a screen, I am a parkrun Run Director.

An hour-by-hour guide to election night

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It’s almost over. The fights that didn’t happen, the interviews that didn’t take place, the ice statues that melted, an election campaign that would make even the most hardened election nerd feel like the kid in Matilda that had to eat all the chocolate cake, is nearly at a close. There is little to do but settle in for a long night of bar charts, ridiculous graphics, and the unique sight of watching politicians’ entire careers evaporate live on stage …

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This Strangely Misfiring Tory Campaign Just Makes Me Wonder

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This is a very strange election campaign from the Conservatives. The Tory messaging for the final week is all wrong. My browser is full of Tory ads calling on me to “Get Brexit Done” when everyone knows Boris is all about that; if anything, they risk alienating the key group of Remainers who voted Tory in 2017. The Tories are currently hanging on to just five-eighths of these voters, and any further slippage could be fatal. As far as potential …

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Northern Ireland looks set for the most unpredictable general election in its history

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With the names of the candidates for this year’s general election finalized, Northern Ireland looks set to have an uncharacteristically unpredictable election, with seemingly competitive races in 10 of its 18 constituencies. The chart above shows the results of this week’s new LucidTalk poll, compared with the poll from August this year and previous election results. It suggests that support for Sinn Féin and the DUP has fallen back from levels at previous elections, and that Alliance have built on …

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Social media transparency data is giving real time insight on party strategy at #GE2019

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The upcoming general election is the first general election in the UK where social media companies are publishing transparency data, showing which political advertisements are being displayed on the platforms, who is paying for them, and the amounts being spent. Facebook is, by far, the largest platform for social media political advertisements in the UK. In the first full week of the campaign to the 4th of November, there was £175k of spending on campaign related advertisements on the platform, …

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The Conservatives are failing to make headway in the Brexit supporting North and Midlands

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At the next general election, the Conservatives’ hopes of regaining the overall majority in the House of Commons will rest on winning a substantial number of seats from Labour in Brexit supporting areas in the North and Midlands of England. This is especially true given that they can expect to lose seats in Remain voting areas in London, the South East and Scotland. The map above compares the results of the 2016 EU referendum on a constituency basis (with seats …

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What would happen at GE2019 if it is more like the 2019 European election than the last general election?

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Previously, I looked at what might happen at a future general election using the 2017 general election results as a base and a YouGov poll to redistribute votes to see how a new general election might pan out. This poll gave the Tories a 9 point lead over Labour in second place, and accordingly in such a scenario the Tories would win a majority despite a historically low vote share, albeit with a smaller majority if the Lib Dems, Greens …

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