Visualising majorities #GE2024

Until I looked the constituency majorities together for the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, I hadn’t spotted that the sweet spot for Alliance is a shade under three thousand votes for their wins at both elections.

Two versions of the chart: one in order of increasing majority at GE2019, the other in order of increasing majority at GE2024. I find my eye catches different details and looks for different stories depending on whether the focus is on the old or the new state.

Chart showing the size of Northern Ireland constituency majorities at the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, sorted in order of increasing majorities in 2019 Looking at seats they held, the DUP only increased their majority in Belfast East, though the party will be relieved that their majorities in Upper Bann and Strangford were relatively stable.

Sinn Féin increased their majority in every seat they held, despite the lower turnout.

In 2019, Sinn Féin had three of the lowest five majorities. In 2024, there were no nationalist seats in the bottom five (though SF was only 179 votes shy of a narrow East Londonderry win).

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is still the party’s most marginal constituency (4,571), but it’s now not far off the middle of the table, and has a larger majority than the SDLP have in Foyle (4,166).

Coming out of last week’s election, Sinn Féin’s majority in South Down was more than five and a half times the size it was going in … throwing a large question over the excited chatter at count centres last Thursday night/Friday morning about “South Down is in play”. Nearly as silly as the sleep-deprived talk about the UUP being ahead in Fermanagh & South Tyrone!

Chart showing the size of Northern Ireland constituency majorities at the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, sorted in order of increasing majorities in 2024

When I get a couple of hours, I’ll update my spreadsheet – definitely before the next General Election! – to give TUV a colour and move it out of the ‘Others and Independents’ catch-all category!


Discover more from Slugger O'Toole

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

We are reader supported. Donate to keep Slugger lit!

For over 20 years, Slugger has been an independent place for debate and new ideas. We have published over 40,000 posts and over one and a half million comments on the site. Each month we have over 70,000 readers. All this we have accomplished with only volunteers we have never had any paid staff.

Slugger does not receive any funding, and we respect our readers, so we will never run intrusive ads or sponsored posts. Instead, we are reader-supported. Help us keep Slugger independent by becoming a friend of Slugger. While we run a tight ship and no one gets paid to write, we need money to help us cover our costs.

If you like what we do, we are asking you to consider giving a monthly donation of any amount, or you can give a one-off donation. Any amount is appreciated.