For Northern Ireland and the Union, the choices after the election are all to play for

Peering into a crystal ball however cloudy is as irresistible for the curious voter as the compulsive gambler. Favourable predictions for the Conservatives range from an overall majority of over 100 to fewer MPs than May won in 2017 but still the largest party. Serious hopes of a Labour majority are round about nil. They are likely to need the support on some basis of minority parties, the SNP, the Lib Dems and who knows? – even the DUP. Johnson’s …

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A limited amnesty not only for soldiers but for all? Another case of a Boris Johnson election wheeze, without understanding what he’s proposing?

The High Court in Belfast On Armistice Day Boris Johnson is announcing what he would like to think sounds like a partial amnesty for former soldiers involved in the Troubles as well as foreign engagements like Iraq and Afghanistan. The subject is of course emotive but the substance is far from clear. What does the proposal to draw a line under Troubles prosecutions really mean? Mr Johnson said the party will introduce legislation to ensure the Law of Armed Conflict …

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Stormont Consent-what does it mean?

Angela Merkel gave Boris Johnson 30 days to submit alternative proposals to replace the backstop. After a long wait (where it was speculated that the Prime Minister would merely amend the Withdrawal Agreement with tip-ex) the UK Government has finally submitted its plans. Spanning seven pages, Johnson’s proposals are a mis-mash of different ideas. All the hits you know and love are back. Remember Max Fac? It’s there. Nostalgic for Customs checks? Want a border down the Irish Sea? The …

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Boris Johnson to propose a No Deal deal, ask the EU to refuse an extension and challenge his tormentors to an election

It reads like a trailer for Boris Johnson’s leaders’ speech on Wednesday. The British  “non-papers”  have gelled into what is in effect a No Deal plan masquerading as a negotiating position. The BBC, RTE and the Daily Telegraph are all reporting that the UK government will propose checks on either side of the border but away from the border itself. As this in no way acts as a substitute for the backstop it will be rejected by Dublin and the …

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Deal or No Deal- and it’s looking more and more like the latter – the UK could still leave the EU on 31 October

Despite rumours to the contrary, this week will find it hard to match the turbulence of last week.  It’s pretty clear that at this point, the combined opposition majority can’t agree on a strategy to turf Johnson out of office. This could prove fatal to their main aim.  In the absence of a policy to unite around, passing a vote of confidence against him would only set a clock ticking that would defeat their essential aim of preventing the UK …

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Boris’s bullying and bluster blinds him to the chance of agreement behind the sound and fury. He is his own worst enemy

This exchange will be remembered… Paula Sheriff Dewsbury, Lab I genuinely do not seek to stifle robust debate, but this evening the Prime Minister has continually used pejorative language to describe an Act of Parliament that was passed by this House. I am sure you would agree, Mr Speaker, that we should not resort to the use of offensive, dangerous or inflammatory language about legislation that we do not like. We stand here, Mr Speaker, under the shield of our …

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The Supreme Court decision may be momentous but does it change anything over Brexit? Can a ” government of national unity” unite the country around a New Deal altogether?

Supreme Court President Lady Hale  The Supreme Court decision is a constitutional big deal, but has it changed  anything  in the Brexit timetable?  The Conservative party with most if not all of the dissidents included will not overthrow Boris Johnson and plunge themselves into another leadership crisis.  The DUP will endorse that.  If  Johnson wants to continue slash’n burn, he challenges  Corbyn to an immediate general election tomorrow.  This means he’s compelled to abandon withdrawal “ no if’s  not buts …

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Brexit blues take over again as confusion reigns

Confused? Join the club which I believe includes the principals, the British and Irish governments and the EU.  The idea of “non-papers”  from the UK government expresses the confusion perfectly. Do they mean what they say or not?  Are they the last word in the last ditch or feints in a game ? We last left off on an upward note when Foster met Varadkar. The direction of travel seemed to be towards NI as a special economic zone between …

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Is this really it? ” Northern Ireland would effectively become a special economic zone inside both the UK and the EU”

Too much for the DUP, too little for Dublin and the EU but enough to keep going? The direction of travel has seemed clear for some time. These reports bring it out into the open. Johnson has been talking up a deal based on an expansion of  the original  agri foods proposal. An actual outline has been show to the EU negotiators, but not to  take  home with them . (Why did they tamely agree to only a sneak preview?)  …

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Only if Johnson comes up with a firm proposal can the DUP’s true position be revealed

Despite Arlene Foster’s public denials, the Times stands by its story that  ahead of any return to Stormont ,the DUP would support the idea of the Assembly signing off on a deal to replace the backstop that would involve some ( no doubt de-dramatised) “checks in the Irish Sea” . This is based on the hope that DUP all-Ireland agreement on agri foods is only a stage on a journey rather than the final destination. It would mean the DUP …

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Now it’s two to one in UK courts declaring parliament’s suspension not a matter for the courts

The Belfast Telegraph reports  A legal challenge in Belfast High Court that argued the Government’s Brexit strategy will damage the Northern Ireland peace process has been dismissed. Lord Justice Bernard McCloskey delivered his ruling on Thursday morning on three joined cases against Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s handling of the UK’s European Union exit. In his written judgment, the judge said: “I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible …

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Backstop fever has subsided, but the virus is still live and it could spread…

This must be the barmiest idea emerging from the current bout of backstop fever – an “exclusive” from Cathy Newman of Channel 4 News.    Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.. The prime minister wants to know “where this money could come from” and “the risks around the project” – which appear to include “WW2 munitions in the Irish Sea…” The DUP, the party supporting the Conservatives …

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Is the backstop beginning to slide towards a deal the DUP won’t like?

On the eve of Boris Johnson’s visit to Dublin it comes as no surprise that Sinn Fein claims that Leo Varadkar has conceded the backstop “at the eleventh hour.”  Deniable though it may be, do they yet make a plausible case, as the squeeze tightens on Dublin to try to reconcile the defence of the single market with the serious threat to jobs and the all-island economy? Does Vardakar’s concession on the one hand  that checks will be phased in …

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Cabinet ministers demand Plan B, The Times reports. And it may include Northern Ireland staying in alignment with the EU if GB diverges

The Times reports: Boris Johnson was under pressure from cabinet ministers last night to abandon his Brexit strategy and “come up with a plan B” after opposition parties pledged to veto any bid for a general election before he asks the EU for an extension On a chaotic day it emerged that: Rebel Tories expelled from the party by Mr Johnson have struck a deal behind his back with European leaders to secure a three-month Brexit extension. The group, which also includes …

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“Die in a ditch?” It could come to that. And Ireland hunkers down for a new border

As long as 24 hours ago, Boris Johnson seemed to have the edge in a deadly struggle with the new anti No Deal Commons majority. But with a Tory backlash mounting over sacking of  21 senior rebels and the influence of Dominic Cummings;  and with Tory traditionalist  MP resignations coming thick and fast led by brother Jo, I’m no longer so sure. Squeezed by the new majority, Johnson  looked to be buckling under the pressure at his dire appearance at …

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Johnson may be a zombie PM but he could still win through, as the combined Opposition are united only on barring No Deal

After suffering three defeats in two days, by early next week Boris Johnson may well be forced to swallow his words and accept a Commons majority Bill to ban No Deal. The pressure on Labour would then become irresistible to lift their ban on a general election. But that poses at least two dilemmas for Labour.  Do they follow Corbyn’s instinct and go for an election almost straight away on say 15 October, two days before the EU Council meeting? …

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There just has to be a compromise over the backstop, for all our sakes.

Ulster University campus. A new face of Belfast  Taking bracing walks in west Donegal and in and around Belfast for three weeks without much sight of the political news does wonders for the perspective. Not for the first time, I experienced severe doubts about the relevance of the noise of politics to the rhythms of real life. I’m old enough to marvel still how the near Republic has caught up with the North in prosperity and appearance. The border towns …

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Is Brexit A Rerun of the 1930s?

We’re living through a rerun of the 1930s. It must be so, because everyone on my social media timeline tells me so. It seems to be taken as a given that Britain, like all Western societies, is a seething pit of racist, authoritarian, sentiment, itching for an undemocratic strongman to overthrow democracy and civil liberties. So, on the subject of Brexit, the Left and the Right, Leavers and Remainers, all fear the Tommy Robinsons and the Wall of Gammon that turns up at …

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This isn’t a coup. We should still be concerned and angry.

Boris Johnson set off a political earthquake when he asked the Queen to prorogue parliament on the 28th August. There have been huge protests in London. Opposition MPs are demanding meetings with the Queen. The Speaker has issued a statement calling Johnson’s decision a “a constitutional outrage.” Many people will be cheering Boris Johnson on. Others will be frightened and scared at what lies ahead. It’s the reason why many are referring to the current situation as a coup. When …

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Don’t underestimate him. Boris Johnson is making a powerful appeal by defying party traditions, but at the expense of the Union

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London