Border poll – Page 3 – Slugger O'Toole

Opinion on a border poll “on a knife edge” – the latest from The Detail

Brian Walker on February 24, 2020, 1:28 pm

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Here we go again. Just a bit of cross posting here to draw attention m to a special edition of The Detail, about a border poll. The comment is based a Lucid Talk opinion poll conducted north and south, showing opinion “ on a knife edge” – 46.8% to stay in the UK and 45.4 % for a United Ireland. The disparity now among three polls in succession can partly be accounted for by different methodology, this one on line, …

‘Brexit means that Northern Ireland’s constitutional future has become an issue for Europe’, says Denis Bradley

Paul Gosling on July 19, 2019, 7:01 am

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Denis Bradley was keen to move on in the latest Forward Together podcast interview to discuss the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. “Well that’s the one that intrigues me because I don’t know the answer!,” he says. “First of all I think something very important happened within the last couple of weeks and has not received attention. And that is that the Europeans have said if there a no deal situation we will still have to deal with the Northern …

No Deal would mean ” a blockade” of Northern Ireland. Is anybody listening? Does anybody care?

Brian Walker on June 15, 2019, 2:43 pm

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David Sterling, head of the Northern Ireland civil service Tony Connelly RTE’s ace Europe editor, has pulled together in its full awfulness the impact of No Deal on the Northern Ireland economy, amounting “to a full blockade.” Clearly well briefed by officials in Belfast, Dublin and Brussels, the message isn’t getting through in London where it matters most at the moment. Just consider this for a wee opener…. When the original exit date of 29 March approached, officials fretted that …

‘Let’s create an all-island, integrated, health service, and let’s begin now’

Paul Gosling on May 31, 2019, 7:00 am

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There needs to be an all-island, integrated, health service, and its creation should not be dependent upon the agreement or timing of a united Ireland, argues Professor Jim Dornan – one of the architects of existing cross-border co-operation in health services. Jim was interviewed in the latest Forward Together podcast. “In many ways Ireland is a Goldilocks sized country for health provision,” he explains. “We can cherry pick the best of health provision throughout the world and let’s introduce it …

Border poll ferment hits a high spot in the Euros exit poll

Brian Walker on May 25, 2019, 8:18 pm

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The Red C exit poll records an astounding result on Irish Unity – so amazing that it’s presented as tucked in after another positive result on the Irish language, as if they don’t quite believe it. Newton tweets Support for a united Ireland rises as support for Sinn Fein falls. Perhaps the southern electorate is more sophisticated on this point than it gets credit for. What’s happening to them down there, so drunk with euphoria about what a terrific …

Synthesis

Andrew Gallagher on March 1, 2019, 5:47 pm

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In my previous post I outlined the various models available for a sovereign Ireland – a unitary state, asymmetric devolution, federalism and a confederal union. Asymmetric devolution is unstable and inequitable, while federalism is too heavy for such a small country as Ireland. That leaves a unitary state and a confederal union as the only serious options, and each involves a different set of compromises. A unitary state is more efficient, more equitable and arguably simpler in its daily operation; …

The escape hatch

Andrew Gallagher on February 28, 2019, 6:30 pm

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Mike Nesbitt states plainly what should by now be painfully obvious. With Brexit, Unionism has shot itself in the foot, and many people are now quietly contemplating the previously unthinkable. But this has merely upped the ante for those who advocate constitutional change. Appealing to nationalists, he said: “If you’re going to have a border poll…don’t let it be like Brexit. Before there’s a border poll it has to be spelled out in enormous detail – and truthfully, unlike Brexit …

The mechanics of a Border Poll

Andrew Gallagher on February 22, 2019, 8:00 am

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Mark Bassett and Colin Harvey have this week produced an important paper, which works through the mechanics of a border poll. Although as the authors point out, this might not be the best choice of words: When people use the term “border poll” they are referring to the question of whether Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom or join a united Ireland. Although it is widely used and adopted, we question how helpful it is in capturing the …

Plan for a border poll certainly, but as part of new British- Irish and North-South relationships

Brian Walker on January 12, 2019, 12:01 pm

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Deep in the last ditch before Tuesday’s meaningful vote, the UK government are warning that the DUP’s refusal to back Mrs May’s deal brings a border poll nearer. The warning was put into the mouth of Karen Bradley who political anoraks may just remember is the minister with nominal responsibility for Northern Ireland affairs. No 10 put out one of their coy little briefings to say that she “told the Cabinet” that a border poll on the reunification of Ireland …

The time has come for the next Assembly to vote on a border poll

Brian Walker on September 6, 2018, 12:01 pm

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In a brave attempt to discuss a border poll dispassionately, Newton Emerson is tentatively suggesting that it might be a good idea to hold a sort of test poll outside the terms of the GFA “to clear the air.” Unfortunately his analysis is better than his prescription, as a poll of any sort under official sponsorship, even one declared in some way not to count, would inevitably still stimulate the seven year itch among nationalists he rightly identifies , to …

From the London broadsheets, rare interest in Irish developing positions is to be welcomed

Brian Walker on September 5, 2018, 10:42 am

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The criticism is well made that British interest in Irish positions is generally self serving and fails to recognise their independent validity. Any slight shift in this is to be welcomed. The London broadsheets have paid Sinn Fein the rare compliment of taking seriously the party’s think-in at Cavan. It’s worth noting that they have yet to broach the notion that a Brexit solution would be so much easier if Northern Ireland were to join the Republic. Quite apart from …

Slugger TV with Christopher Stalford

David McCann on August 27, 2018, 11:17 am

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In this months episode I speak with the DUP MLA, Christopher Stalford about the DUP, going to Clones and a border poll. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Mike Nesbitt “Rather than Carson’s dream of a government for all, we are hurtling into the record books for the length of time we have had no government for anyone”

David McCann on August 5, 2018, 6:09 pm

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Mike Nesbitt has released a response to Peter Robinson’s comments on a border poll; “A couple of months ago, Peter Robinson said he was pulling the pin out of the grenade – a curious analogy for a man making his inaugural speech as an Honorary Professor of Peace Studies. He was referring to the manner in which a Border Poll might be called and conducted, an issue he returned to in great detail last week. It is time to explore …

An Irish Border Poll – learning the lessons of Brexit

Samuel Thompson on June 28, 2018, 12:08 pm

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Demographic changes and some recent polls have injected an air of optimism, arguably even complacency into the campaign for Irish unity to the extent that its proponents regard it as inevitable within the medium-term. A quick review of the past two years in the United Kingdom however, offers a vivid example of how major constitutional change is not a simple matter, far from it. The problem began with a referendum, posing the simple question: Should the United Kingdom remain a …

How has opinion in Northern Ireland on the border question changed since the Brexit referendum?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 24, 2018, 4:14 pm

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It is perhaps ironic that, given politics in Northern Ireland has revolved around the border question since its inception, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding whether the people of Northern Ireland want to stay in the United Kingdom or become part of a united Ireland. There have been a number of opinion polls and surveys on the question since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, which have yielded significantly varying results on the question of support for Irish …

Ashcroft Poll shows a competitive Border Poll race.

David McCann on June 19, 2018, 9:14 pm

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Lord Ashcroft released the results of the survey he conducted which included results of how a Border Poll, North and South would go. In the South When do people think there should be a Border Poll David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Peter Robinson was talking about much more than a border poll. The Assembly must become boycott proof

Brian Walker on June 10, 2018, 3:13 pm

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It was Peter Robinson “pulling the pin out of the grenade” and proposing “generational” border polls that attracted most attention. But he had a good deal more to say at Queen’s that was more important or at least more urgent. He kept it lofty, generalised and above all brief, to avoid getting drawn into detail or appearing to lecture his successors. But his meaning is pretty clear . While he had to say he was optimistic about the future, he …

A border poll will not just be about the choice between the union and a united Ireland. Any border poll will be a referendum on Northern Ireland itself

Sarah Creighton on May 23, 2018, 1:52 pm

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Northern Irish politics has been all about polls for the past week. According to the Times, Theresa May isn’t too confident that unionists would win a border poll. The Prime Minister is that cack-handed people worried she’d triggered a border poll by accident. She hadn’t. Then, on the 21st May, two polls by ICM and MORI were released that showed support for the union, but with caveats that should keep unionists on their toes. The prospect of a border poll …

The Rorschach Test

Andrew Gallagher on May 17, 2018, 8:51 pm

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inkblot

I argued in an earlier piece that the word “Unionism” should be handled with extreme care, because it has become overloaded with far too many overlapping yet inconsistent meanings. For slightly different reasons, we should also avoid using the phrase “United Ireland”. “Unionism” refers to a collection of existing things that can, with effort, be distinguished from each other. “United Ireland”, or its modern euphemism “New Ireland”, means nothing much at all, because it refers to a hypothetical something that …

May tells Rees Mogg: with a hard border I’d not be confident of winning a border poll

Brian Walker on May 15, 2018, 10:40 am

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Times report Theresa May confronted Jacob Rees-Mogg at a meeting with Tory MPs designed to break the deadlock over Britain’s future customs arrangements with the EU, The Times has learnt. The pair clashed yesterday over the impact of rival plans on the Irish border, in what witnesses described as the prime minister “sending a tough signal” to hardline Brexiteers that she was not prepared to jeopardise the Union. It came after Mrs May went over the heads of her squabbling cabinet with a personal …