A “gold standard” poll shows nationalism closing on the union. Reverse the question, keeping the format identical, and unionism’s lead jumps from 6 points to 33. The same biases drive both results. Here’s how question framing quietly sets the political weather in Northern Ireland, and a simple test to level the field.
Fine Gael has chosen Garret FitzGerald’s centenary to launch a blueprint for Irish unity. But preparation is not persuasion — and the unaligned middle who will actually decide remain unmoved by border-poll rhetoric.
The debate about Stormont’s future is asking the wrong question. The real issue is whether nationalism has the honesty to tell a younger generation what constitutional change actually requires — and the institutional competence to prove it can govern in the meantime.
The border poll arithmetic is simple: nationalism cannot win it alone. The votes needed sit with people who want competent government, not constitutional drama. So why, after twenty-five years in power, is there so little evidence of the former and so much of the latter?
After thirty years of post-Agreement politics, support for a united Ireland hasn’t moved. The border poll debate needs a reality check — and only one party has worked out what a credible long-term strategy actually looks like.
The Secretary of State, Hilary Benn joined the Stormont Sources podcast during the week to discuss the budget, Stormont Reform and a border poll. “It’s a long way off because no one who is calling for a border poll can actually argue that that condition is currently met in Northern Ireland.” Secretary of State @hilarybennmp sets out the criterion for a border poll and why it is not currently being met.@dmcbfs |… pic.twitter.com/q80p2GT68I — Stormont Sources (@StormontSources) December 4, 2025 …
The latest polling undertaken by Liverpool University’s Institute of Irish Studies shows a significant disconnection between the numbers voting for a Unionist party and those who would vote to remain in the UK in a future Border poll. Just over 50 percent (51.9%) of those who would vote to remain in the Union voted for a Unionist party, such as the DUP, UUP or TUV. But a much higher proportion (69.9%) of those who would vote for Irish unity tomorrow …
For Malachi O’Doherty, the question of Irish unity is less about when there might be a border poll or what the result of a plebiscite would be, but whether this deeply divided island can actually ever be truly united. It’s the topic he has examined in a recently published book: Can Ireland Be One? As part of Look North! The North Belfast Festival, Malachi chatted to UU’s Prof Duncan Morrow. Filmed by Alan Meban @alaninbelfast in Ulster University on …
Speaking on this morning’s Nolan Show Shaun Woodward said that conditions may be already met to hold a border poll. Might Labour promise a border poll when they get back into power? On @BBCNolan today – Former Secretary of State for NI tells Nolan conditions may be already met to hold a border poll here 📻 @bbcradioulster 🎧 @BBCSounds 📞 03030805555 | 📲 81771 pic.twitter.com/Qqs8rMoBbj — Stephen Nolan (@StephenNolan) September 26, 2022 On a side note, Wikipedia tells me Shaun …
This morning, on the BBC’s Sunday Politics, Shadow Secretary of State Peter Kyle made some comments during a brief interview with the BBC’s Darran Marshall on the question of the criteria to call a border poll (iplayer : interview begins at approx 18:45) which seems to have generated a frisson of excitement. The salient part of the interview is reproduced below, with my emphasis. DM : I want to talk to you about the constitutional position now. Do you think …
“A border poll on Irish unity has progressed from possible, to likely, to certain.” Words you might expect to have been said with some relish by a Sinn Féin politician, perhaps, but their author is actually Alex Kane in his praise for Malachi O’Doherty’s latest work. Conventional wisdom in this part of the world would now have you believe that the writing is on the wall – not just in respect of a Border Poll, but also Irish Unity as …
At one point, after his talk, Andy was asked: “So has Partition been a success?” to which he replied with a horrified “No, it has been a disaster”. But that does not mean partition has not had major effects. Blogging at the European Tribune and on Slugger O’Toole has taught me that we might as well be on two different planets. There is almost no appreciation of N. Ireland politics in Ireland, never mind Europe, and vice versa, much N. …
From the Irish News: The public should be given clarity on the criteria for calling a poll on Irish unification, Michelle O’Neill has said. The Sinn Féin vice president said there was a need to fill in the “grey” area of the Good Friday Agreement on the circumstances for holding a referendum on constitutional change. Her comments come after Tánaiste Leo Varadkar also called for clarity on the mechanism for calling a poll. Under the terms of the 1998 Good …
“The mountain is so formed that it is always wearisome when one begins the ascent, but becomes easier the higher one climbs.” – Dante, Divine Comedy, Purgatorio On Sunday I was part of a panel discussion at the Battle of Ideas entitled The Border Question: Can the Union Survive? It was lively, to say the least. The chair, Kevin Rooney, made sure there was plenty of time for audience questions. The venue, Church House, is integral to the grounds of Westminster …
Lucid Talk have been busy little bees. Hot on the heels of their poll in yesterday’s Tele, they have another poll in today’s Observer. The subject this time is our old favourite – a border poll. From the article: Two-thirds of voters in Northern Ireland believe there should be a vote over its place in the UK, but only 37% want it to take place within the next five years, according to a new poll for the Observer. Some 31% …
First a critical assessment of the Report on Referendums within the island of Ireland by an old colleague with definitive cross border credentials, Andy Pollak, A brilliantly reasoned but not balanced exploration of future Irish unity referendums…. If a majority opts for unification, then the transfer of sovereignty must occur, whether governing arrangements [for a new united Ireland] can be agreed consensually or not.” This is the report’s central contradiction (as it may be in the 1998 Agreement itself)… This …
Let’s assume Edwin Poots is a shoo-in for the DUP leadership. Comfortable in his minor elder statesman role at Westminster, Jeffrey Donaldson hasn’t the stomach for a contest. He might be willing to accept it on a plate but that’s not going to happen. With more than a hint of desperation, some of us have been foisting the Nixon goes to China model onto Poots, meaning that the hardliner in politics may be better placed to compromise than the liberal. …
The former Irish ambassador to the EU, Rory Montgomery, delivered his inaugural lecture as honorary professor of practice at the QUB Mitchell Institute on Tuesday evening. His topic – The Good Friday Agreement and a United Ireland – had a contemporary feel as the civic conversation intensifies around whether to and how to hold border polls. The 45 minute lecture was followed by half an hour of questions from the audience moderated by Professor Christopher McCrudden. While Belfast Agreement …
One hundred years after Partition, Northern Ireland is still in existence. It would surely come as a big surprise to many who thronged the streets of Belfast on June 22nd 1921 – the date King George V opened the first NI Parliament in City Hall – that unionism is now a minority in Stormont. It would also surely come as a big surprise to many nationalists in 1972 that the state set up to guarantee unionist rule in north-east Ireland …
The topic of Irish unity has been propelled into the mainstream of political debate to an extent that would have been inconceivable even five years ago. And it’s not just the usual Republican voices engaged either. Most of Nationalism’s moderate mainstream, plus some elements within Unionism, are also pondering the question of what form Northern Ireland’s future could or should take in a world where Brexit has happened and demography is shifting. It still remains very early days in that …
