CUs: not the end but not far off? (and some battleships)

If the TUV lost heavily the CU’s were practically no better. The party which ruled Northern Ireland from its inception until the fall of Stormont; the party which as recently as 1997 held 10 seats is now reduced to none. Bob Balls has his thoughts over on Open Unionism but I thought a few other things might be worth mentioning. At a very fundamental level some in the UUP still do not seem to understand that it is no longer …

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How did those polls work out?

Now the election is over we can compare information from the Inform Communications and LucidTalk (not for Slugger) polls with the outcome. Actual DUP 25% SF 25.5% SDLP 16.5% UCUNF 15.2% TUV 3.9% Inform Communictions DUP 26% SF 25.% Other 19% SDLP 17% UCUNF – 13% TUV – no report Predicted: Fermanagh/South Tyrone candidate, independent Rodney Connor — who has said he will take the Conservative whip unless it is against the interests of his constituency — is running neck …

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Fermanagh South Tyrone goes absolutely to the wire

I am hearing from the count for Fermanagh South Tyrone that the SDLP vote has collapsed and that for ages Michelle Gildernew was ahead. However, at the end Rodney Connor pulled back and finished 8 votes ahead. Sinn Fein entirely reasonably has demanded a recount. Update: recount Sinn Fein 2 ahead Further update: counting suspended until morning, Sinn Fein seeking legal advice. It seems to all come down to interpretations about the doubtful ballots.

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Belfast Telegraph poll: read with large pinch of salt

Mark Devenport’s blog at the BBC has the results of the latest opinion poll published in the Belfast Telegraph today (I cannot find it online yet). It seems a larger poll that the “Slugger O’Toole one” Mick mentioned. Currently the Belfast Telegraph has: DUP 26% SF 25% SDLP 17% UCUNF 13% Alliance 7% Independent 6% TUV 5% In terms of the seat tally they have all the sitting MPs reelected, though FST is impossible to call being a 1% margin …

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Slugger reader predictions – latest

We’ve had 49 replies to our Prediction Competition so far*. Averaging the results, we’re collectively predicting a turnout of 61.8%, and the votes cast divide up as follows (rounded up to one decimal place): SF: 25.6% DUP: 23.5% UCUNF: 17.9% SDLP: 16.2% Alliance: 5.2% TUV: 7.3% Others: 4.2% What does this tell us? It isn’t polling evidence, and there’s no weighting (bookies have the benefit of knowing a bit about strength of sentiment because it’s hard-earned cash backing predictions). But …

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FST’s ‘shotgun marriage’ may not cut it for Unionist electorate…

Last week Ben Lowry was asking whether those behind the Unionist unity campaign had taken account of its natural response: nationalist unity? The publication of the High Court’s judgement against Fermanagh District Council won’t help the unity candidate down there. Toals already have the incumbent Michelle Gildernew fractionally ahead of the council’s former CEO Rodney Connor, even though, theoretically, the numbers should add up to slight unionist majority. As I argued back in January, some of form of unionist unity …

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Fermanagh Council: “at best prima facie discriminatory and certainly unedifying”

A BBC report notes the publication, one month after the ruling was made, of a High Court judgement which orders that Fermanagh District Council must pay the Local Government Auditor’s bill of £38,178 for an investigation into the controversial appointment of Rodney Connor as Chief Executive of the Council in 2000.  From the BBC report In his ruling [Mr Justice Higgins] emphasised that the proceedings reflect in no way upon the ability or integrity of Mr Connor who “all parties acknowledged to be a …

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Election: Is North Belfast in play?

There has been a considerable amount of talk in recent days about North Belfast being elevated to a ‘one to watch’ constituency. Both Irish News editor, Noel Doran, and UTV’s Ken Reid made reference to it following UTV’s Leaders Debate Thursday night, and Jim Fitzpatrick has followed that up with more speculation in his preview of Sunday’s Politics Show programme. Here’s Sammy Morse’s 2007 preview of the constituency (pre-boundary changes, which, according to Nick Whyte’s Northern Ireland elections site have marginally increased …

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Major gaffe as Cameron looks forward to NI budget cuts

David Cameron has just told Jeremy Paxman that Northern Ireland is the top of the list of  UK regions where the public sector is too big, with the North East of England coming second. Not exactly a  new discovery this, but alarm bells should ring, as Cameron  was being grilled about the size of public sector cuts he’d  make over the next few years, if he becomes prime minister.  He refused to give any figures or percentages beyond admitting  to an extra £6 billion …

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The battle in the Dreary Steeples

Elections in Fermanagh and South Tyrone can be pretty grim affairs with the spectre of the sectarian head count never far away. There is a certain inevitability in this due to the relatively closely balanced sizes of the two communities and the fact that during the Troubles and indeed the Border Campaign, right back to the 1920s; Fermanagh and the neighbouring parts of Tyrone were stalked by terrorism. Throughout the constituency’s recent history there have been frequent pacts from one …

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“Main obstacle to Unionist unity is Peter Robinson…”

DUP leader Peter Robinson is an impediment to unionist unity according to Unionist Party Assembly member David NcNarry. In a blistering attack on Mr. Robinson, the Strangford Unionist said: “Peter Robinson is an obstacle. He has too much baggage from the past, moving forward, with his bashing of Ulster Unionists. My ministers asked him to step aside while he sorted out his private affairs. There have been more revelations and there are growing doubts inside his own party about his …

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Tories: “Fermanagh and South Tyrone has characteristics that are unique within the UK”

The Tories on FST: Update: the cross party background of the successful candidate… “We recognise that Fermanagh and South Tyrone has characteristics that are unique within the UK. It has been without any democratic representation for the past nine years. It is the one constituency where there is currently an abstentionist MP, where a single cross community candidate could lead to the restoration of democractic representation at Westminster. In recent weeks and months there has been an upsurge of public …

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Unionist unity candidate declared in Fermanagh South Tyrone

We expected it at the weekend, but terms have been agreed that a single unionist candidate will run in Fermanagh South Tyrone. The candidate in question is the former Chief Executive of Fermanagh District Council, Rodney Connor. Slugger understands he will take the Tory whip on all matters not relating to the constituency. At which point he reserves the right to vote as he pleases. He will not be a member of the Unionist and Conservative alliance, and in that …

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UCUNF Deal in FST being blocked by the DUP?

Alex Kane argues that if Reg only picks up one seat, or none he is finished. The same is probably true for the Tory UUP pact. Which mean the bar is gradually coming down for them. Jeff Peel is picking up vibes in Fermanagh South Tyrone that a deal is already part formed in Fermanagh South Tyrone between the UUs, the Tories and the DUP, but according to Jeff that the sticking point is the DUP’ objection to the ‘independent’ …

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Fermanagh Councilors case of misconduct thrown out

Eight years ago Fermanagh District Council appointed Rodney Connor as their new Chief Executive over Danny McSorley. All ten Unionist Councillors voted for Mr Connor, a Protestant, while 11 Nationalist Councillors voted for Mr McSorley, a Catholic. One independent nationalist voted for Mr Connor, and thus the Unionist Chair broke the tie. The Equality Commission took up the case on the grounds of “unlawful discrimination” and in 2005 the Local Government Auditor found Councillors involved guilty of misconduct. Today in …

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Day of Reflection: Fermanagh

Newshound links to a story carried in the Impartial Reporter where in Enniskillen there was a Ban on press as Day of Reflection is held behind closed doors. There seems to have been poor communication and confusion. In Derry RTE were allowed to give full coverage. On Monday Sinn Fein Press office released an “erroneous” statement which seemed to distance the party from, and in fact be critical of the privacy decision in Fermanagh,but by the following day had changed …

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Day of Reflection: Fermanagh

Newshound links to a story carried in the Impartial Reporter where in Enniskillen there was a Ban on press as Day of Reflection is held behind closed doors. There seems to have been poor communication and confusion. In Derry RTE were allowed to give full coverage. On Monday Sinn Fein Press office released an “erroneous” statement which seemed to distance the party from, and in fact be critical of the privacy decision in Fermanagh,but by the following day had changed …

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Slugger does not receive any funding, and we respect our readers, so we will never run intrusive ads or sponsored posts. Instead, we are reader-supported. Help us keep Slugger independent by becoming a friend of Slugger. While we run a tight ship and no one gets paid to write, we need money to help us cover our costs.

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Alliance Warming To The Tribal Pitch

Pitching for Unionist or Nationalist unity in a bid to maximise representation for one tradition or the other is a well established tactic at election time in Northern Ireland. All unionist parties strictly advise ‘their’ voters to transfer to fellow unionists, regardless of sharp political differences on socio-economic, moral or other issues, whilst Sinn Fein will speak of maximising nationalist representation (though transfer patterns between nationalist parties have never been as uniform as within unionism.) Part of the Alliance Party’s …

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Candidates from the parties in #ae16

A few people have gotten in touch with us to ask if it is possible to get a list of candidates running in this years Assembly election. In the spirit of being a public service, I thought I would compile a list of candidates running for each party in the Assembly. If I have missed anybody let me know and I will add them. NOTE- Constituencies left blank means that the party has just not nominated a candidate yet DUP …

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3,722 dead between 1966 and 2007 (2)…

Bertie noted on the first thread on this subject that the names petered out in October 1979. It appears that when I cut an pasted the original from the Irish Times, the blog software could not cope with the huge amount of text it involved. Nevertheless it took nearly fifty comments of mostly (but not all) vehement contention over those deaths before someone spotted the list was half what it should have been. Clearly I should have checked it, but …

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