In the high-stakes world of geopolitics, the belief that “chai and chat” can disarm a dictator is a dangerous delusion. From the “bad actor” tactics of Putin to the military vulnerabilities of neutral Ireland, Gary Kent argues Europe must transition from reliance on American to becoming a military superpower in its own right.
The row over the Ulster Banner at the 2026 Commonwealth Games must be one the shortest crisis in recent NI history, but it proves that while it doesn’t take much to NI’s successful sporting arena into a political minefield, only time, work and unending commitment can bring the generative change needed to make Northern Ireland a warm house for all.
Northern Ireland is no longer a simple two-way divide. As a growing “middle ground” of voters begins to prioritize economic stability, healthcare, and public services over traditional ideology, Independent Unionist MP Alex Easton argues that Unionism must stop the infighting and start selling the tangible benefits of the UK. From the £25 billion fiscal gap to the strengths of the NHS, Easton explores why the Union remains the most viable path forward—if Unionists can finally get their act together.
My previous post has helped spark an interesting debate elsewhere. What seems to have piqued that interest was my view that since 2016 (the last time there was an actual three year budget) there’s been a loss of seriousness within the two senior parties about doing government particularly in comparison to administrations led by those same parties prior to 2016. The fiscal black hole both now face didn’t come from nowhere. Although there is a case to argue that austerity …
When is a budget not a budget? Answer when it’s a ghost budget. That’s the term the SDLP opposition leader Matthew O’Toole used yesterday to describe a few pages of rushed homework the Finance Minister John O’Dowd is choosing to call a budget. This downright weird exercise in PR comes before any of his Executive colleagues had a chance to look at how he proposes to deal with their collective bids. So, in effect O’Dowd is breaking collective responsibility in …
On a recent speaking engagement, Fintan O’Toole made the observation of how important it is to avoid an Irish unity process that ends up like the brexit process. This is a wish that other analysts and political reps have also highlighted. Brexit shows, they argue, the need for adequate preparation. Northern nationalism has upped its rhetoric on this in recent months – SF has been running a time to prepare campaign, and its representatives issue a request for the …
Is a United Ireland inevitable, or is the status quo strengthening? This final installment of our University of Liverpool survey series tackles the Border Poll head-on. While support for unity has risen since 2017, recent data reveals a slight decline and a sobering demographic shift: a shrinking youth electorate. With 59.4% of decided voters favoring the UK, we explore why the “50+1” threshold remains a significant, and perhaps growing, challenge for pro-unity campaigners. We have been testing the border polls …
Part two of Professor Peter Shirlow‘s survey analysis dives into the stark challenges facing Northern Ireland’s political blocs. Our data reveals zero growth in the pro-unity vote share since 1998, despite demographic shifts, and significant internal flux within pro-unionism. Both major constitutional camps show an over-reliance on traditional voters and a lack of strategy to attract younger, policy-focused, and non-aligned electors. We explore the ‘problematic’ findings—from voter leakage to the constitutional commitment gap—shaping the path to 2027. In this second …
In part one of this detailed analysis from Professor Peter Shirlow, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, captures critical in-time attitudes, revealing a halting decline in the pro-union vote and a stalled pro-unity share. Critically, he examines the rise of non-constitutional parties and voter resistance to collapsing the Assembly. The data suggests Northern Ireland’s electorate is far from predictable. Methodology The current survey is based on a sample of 1534 Northern Ireland electors aged …
The Slugger Cato Project is an inquiry hosted by Mick Fealty, and is dedicated to exploring the less-visible aspects of governance and political action in Northern Ireland. It aims to investigate the inner workings of the Stormont government, analysing how politicians navigate bureaucratic systems and fulfil their representative roles. This series is an active investigation, shedding light on the mechanics of modern governance that often remain obscured. Our readers’ contributions have already given us much food for thought. “Finaghy” introduced the …
In the Slugger Cato Project, our mission is clear, and even a little bit ambitious. It’s not simply to spotlight voices you might not typically hear from – though we often will. Our true purpose is to delve into the often frustrating interface between the public and the democratic institutions that were established under the Belfast, or Good Friday, Agreement. It’s a system designed for peace, which often struggles with the practicalities of good government (see Brian’s Panto analogy below). …
What if the latest flag controversy – the decision by nationalists to fly the Palestinian flag over Belfast city hall – is not actually about Northern Ireland? What if it’s not even about Palestine? It is difficult to find any pro-Israel voices within Irish nationalism – North and South – but what if the flag incident in Belfast or the attempted removal of Chaim Herzog’s name from a park in Dublin are taken at face-value? I suggest that viewing Irish …
The recent ruling by the Supreme Court in regards to ensuring religious education in Northern Ireland is delivered in an ‘objective, critical and pluralistic manner’ has sparked a flurry of comment from politicians, church leaders and representative bodies; with a little scaremongering and electioneering thrown in. The DUP is now claiming how important it is that it fills the portfolio. There is clearly a conversation to be had in the light of the ruling but will it be as comprehensive …
The way I originally conceived this project was as a sort of shared inquiry, where the active audience(s) of Slugger would play as much of a role in uncovering actionable insights from these individual episodes as the interviewees themselves. This helps us to fill out the context of a wider landscape and it’s no coincidence that that three of the commenters I’ve picked to introduce this episode are either expats living in London, or a native of the other island …
A feature, or bug is simply a difference between the product you have and the product you want. –Ernest Mueller The last episode (released on Thursday) sparked a pleasingly positive response from the Slugger Community, if not exactly breaking all records in terms of a ton readership. It seems we struck a nerve. For too long, the prevailing narrative has been that Stormont is merely a dysfunctional “clown show.” But as our commenter Babyface pointed out, while slagging everything off …
Over the summer and the autumn I’ve been quietly working away talking to a small number of cross party backbenchers about the work they do in the Assembly as part of a new project we call the Slugger Cato Project. Cato the Younger was famous not for seeking power, but for relentlessly challenging it. He was a symbol of integrity, independence, and defiant courage—a citizen who demanded the highest standards from his government. Now it seems the wider media is …
Eoghan Kelly is a postdoc on the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Election Study and has lectured in Irish politics at Queen’s. Here, he uses his new election projection site to see how reform might perform on polling figures from LucidTalk.. The most recent LucidTalk poll provided a few interesting insights into NI party support. This includes a continuing slide in support for Alliance, growth for the Greens, and a slow decline for Sinn Féin, which is coupled with a small …
Mick reviews two books which treat generously and intelligently the vexed subject of constitutional futures on the island of Ireland and concludes that the historical divergences between north and south mean that constitutional is likely only ever to come through the sort of slow, consensual change embodied in the Shared Island Initiative, if at all…
At a recent Assembly Committee Sinn Féin’s Pat Sheehan, asked ‘if one of the major parties were to walk — if they were to leave the Executive and the Assembly — could the institutions survive with any credibility?’ Soon after Alison Morris summed that Stormont cannot work despite valid attempts. That conclusion is part-true given disputes over legacy and language. But does that mean nothing is working? A fundamental problem with our political, media and commentor class is the inability …
Increasingly in our diet of online news we (journalists, politicians and ordinary citizens) have become prone to follow our own dopamine circuits’ interest in shiny news objects wherever we can get it. That includes our collective obsession with Trump. Why not resile to cynicism when truth is more often than not an illusive fugitive? Yet we need less of it to figure what’s actually happening and get beyond the social media generated miasma of synthetic futures slopping around in a …
