Politics – Page 3 – Slugger O'Toole

Border Poll Reality Check: Demographics, Data, and Decades of Debate (Part Three)

Peter Shirlow on December 19, 2025, 10:00 am

| Readers 5321

brown tree on gray sand near body of water during daytime

Is a United Ireland inevitable, or is the status quo strengthening? This final installment of our University of Liverpool survey series tackles the Border Poll head-on. While support for unity has risen since 2017, recent data reveals a slight decline and a sobering demographic shift: a shrinking youth electorate. With 59.4% of decided voters favoring the UK, we explore why the “50+1” threshold remains a significant, and perhaps growing, challenge for pro-unity campaigners. We have been testing the border polls …

Northern Ireland’s Political Crossroads: Problematics for the Three Blocs (Part Two)

Peter Shirlow on December 18, 2025, 10:00 am

| Readers 1944

body river surrounded by dress

Part two of Professor Peter Shirlow‘s survey analysis dives into the stark challenges facing Northern Ireland’s political blocs. Our data reveals zero growth in the pro-unity vote share since 1998, despite demographic shifts, and significant internal flux within pro-unionism. Both major constitutional camps show an over-reliance on traditional voters and a lack of strategy to attract younger, policy-focused, and non-aligned electors. We explore the ‘problematic’ findings—from voter leakage to the constitutional commitment gap—shaping the path to 2027. In this second …

Beyond the Headlines: Northern Ireland’s Evolving Electorate (Part One)…

Peter Shirlow on December 17, 2025, 10:00 am

| Readers 5265

Person holding ladder in surreal landscape

In part one of this detailed analysis from Professor Peter Shirlow, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, captures critical in-time attitudes, revealing a halting decline in the pro-union vote and a stalled pro-unity share. Critically, he examines the rise of non-constitutional parties and voter resistance to collapsing the Assembly. The data suggests Northern Ireland’s electorate is far from predictable. Methodology The current survey is based on a sample of 1534 Northern Ireland electors aged …

Slugger Cato Project: Pat Sheehan on doggedly sticking to the question over time…

Mick Fealty on December 11, 2025, 4:12 pm

| Readers 1699

a bunch of bees that are on a beehive

The Slugger Cato Project is an inquiry hosted by Mick Fealty, and is dedicated to exploring the less-visible aspects of governance and political action in Northern Ireland. It aims to investigate the inner workings of the Stormont government, analysing how politicians navigate bureaucratic systems and fulfil their representative roles. This series is an active investigation, shedding light on the mechanics of modern governance that often remain obscured. Our readers’ contributions have already given us much food for thought. “Finaghy” introduced the …

Who Guards the Guard? Timothy Gaston MLA on the Battle for Accountability in Stormont

Mick Fealty on December 4, 2025, 3:51 pm

| Readers 1825

a bunch of bees that are on a beehive

In the Slugger Cato Project, our mission is clear, and even a little bit ambitious. It’s not simply to spotlight voices you might not typically hear from – though we often will. Our true purpose is to delve into the often frustrating interface between the public and the democratic institutions that were established under the Belfast, or Good Friday, Agreement. It’s a system designed for peace, which often struggles with the practicalities of good government (see Brian’s Panto analogy below). …

Beyond the Flag: Is Irish Nationalism’s Obsession with Israel Actually Antisemitism?

Cillian McGrattan on December 3, 2025, 7:00 am

| Readers 5416

A cozy, dark library with books and mirrors.

What if the latest flag controversy – the decision by nationalists to fly the Palestinian flag over Belfast city hall – is not actually about Northern Ireland? What if it’s not even about Palestine? It is difficult to find any pro-Israel voices within Irish nationalism – North and South – but what if the flag incident in Belfast or the attempted removal of Chaim Herzog’s name from a park in Dublin are taken at face-value? I suggest that viewing Irish …

Can the Minister of Education pour ‘new wine into old wineskins?’

Terry Wright on November 28, 2025, 2:00 pm

| Readers 1674

two baskets full of grapes

The recent ruling by the Supreme Court in regards to ensuring religious education in Northern Ireland is delivered in an ‘objective, critical and pluralistic manner’ has sparked a flurry of comment from politicians, church leaders and representative bodies; with a little scaremongering and electioneering thrown in. The DUP is now claiming how important it is that it fills the portfolio. There is clearly a conversation to be had in the light of the ruling but will it be as comprehensive …

Slugger Cato Project: Claire Sugden on Challenging the Stormont System as an Independent MLA

Mick Fealty on November 27, 2025, 7:27 pm

| Readers 810

a bunch of bees that are on a beehive

The way I originally conceived this project was as a sort of shared inquiry, where the active audience(s) of Slugger would play as much of a role in uncovering actionable insights from these individual episodes as the interviewees themselves. This helps us to fill out the context of a wider landscape and it’s no coincidence that that three of the commenters I’ve picked to introduce this episode are either expats living in London, or a native of the other island …

Slugger Cato Project: Patsy McGlone on Independence and Challenging the System

Mick Fealty on November 25, 2025, 4:44 pm

| Readers 1588

a bunch of bees that are on a beehive

A feature, or bug is simply a difference between the product you have and the product you want. –Ernest Mueller The last episode (released on Thursday) sparked a pleasingly positive response from the Slugger Community, if not exactly breaking all records in terms of a ton readership. It seems we struck a nerve. For too long, the prevailing narrative has been that Stormont is merely a dysfunctional “clown show.” But as our commenter Babyface pointed out, while slagging everything off …

Accountability vs. “Clicks”: Paul Frew MLA on Scrutinising the Stormont Executive

Mick Fealty on November 20, 2025, 4:20 pm

| Readers 1496

a bunch of bees that are on a beehive

Over the summer and the autumn I’ve been quietly working away talking to a small number of cross party backbenchers about the work they do in the Assembly as part of a new project we call the Slugger Cato Project. Cato the Younger was famous not for seeking power, but for relentlessly challenging it. He was a symbol of integrity, independence, and defiant courage—a citizen who demanded the highest standards from his government. Now it seems the wider media is …

Some tentative prospects for Reform UK in Northern Ireland…

Soapbox on November 15, 2025, 9:19 am

| Readers 5893

aerial view of buildings and trees

Eoghan Kelly is a postdoc on the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Election Study and has lectured in Irish politics at Queen’s. Here, he uses his new election projection site to see how reform might perform on polling figures from LucidTalk.. The most recent LucidTalk poll provided a few interesting insights into NI party support. This includes a continuing slide in support for Alliance, growth for the Greens, and a slow decline for Sinn Féin, which is coupled with a small …

Review: Constitutional change in Ireland will likely be slow, consensual and evolutionary, not quick, revolutionary or violent…

Mick Fealty on November 5, 2025, 6:39 am

| Readers 5227

a roller coaster with a sign that says cyclone

Mick reviews two books which treat generously and intelligently the vexed subject of constitutional futures on the island of Ireland and concludes that the historical divergences between north and south mean that constitutional is likely only ever to come through the sort of slow, consensual change embodied in the Shared Island Initiative, if at all…

The Politics of Neglect: Why Good News Gets Buried in Northern Ireland…

Peter Shirlow on October 28, 2025, 6:36 am

| Readers 3085

blue and red graffiti on wall

At a recent Assembly Committee Sinn Féin’s Pat Sheehan, asked ‘if one of the major parties were to walk — if they were to leave the Executive and the Assembly — could the institutions survive with any credibility?’ Soon after Alison Morris summed that Stormont cannot work despite valid attempts. That conclusion is part-true given disputes over legacy and language. But does that mean nothing is working? A fundamental problem with our political, media and commentor class is the inability …

Are we even able to hear the surprisingly good news from the health system in Northern Ireland?

Mick Fealty on October 20, 2025, 5:29 pm

| Readers 1455

a circular hole in the ground with trees growing out of it

Increasingly in our diet of online news we (journalists, politicians and ordinary citizens) have become prone to follow our own dopamine circuits’ interest in shiny news objects wherever we can get it. That includes our collective obsession with Trump. Why not resile to cynicism when truth is more often than not an illusive fugitive? Yet we need less of it to figure what’s actually happening and get beyond the social media generated miasma of synthetic futures slopping around in a …

If there was light at the end of the tunnel, some Unionists would prefer to stumble around in the dark to find a switch.

Terry Wright on October 17, 2025, 1:34 pm

| Readers 3048

a gray cat with yellow eyes sitting on the floor

“ ….. genuinely plural, liberal, democratic… capable of accommodating social, cultural and religious diversity…… open to all to share in the benefits of British citizenship regardless of class, creed or race…. so that everyone here can enjoy the same rights as their fellow-citizens in Great Britain, irrespective of whether they aspire to be Ulster-British, British-Irish or Irish.” 27 years ago. and counting, the late David Trimble, leader of the main unionist party of the day, voiced these aspirations in a …

BIPA: Turning the page on generations of drift in all island education…

Mick Fealty on October 13, 2025, 6:22 pm

| Readers 1316

books on brown wooden shelf

My friend John Kellden says that every major issue in the world today is a crisis of governance. We know from the serial collapses of Stormont and the constitutional chaos in the US that to work institutions must be inhabited by people and ideas. I used to ascribe the attitude of some of the advocates for the Belfast Agreement to a kind of neo-political Calvinism, which in having vouchsafed the peace then all manner of good things would naturally follow. …

Ulster Unionist Party conference report – well attended but at times unexpectedly muted #uup25

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on October 11, 2025, 5:16 pm

| Readers 2850

Mike Nesbitt standing on stage at UUP 2025 conference

Within minutes of starting, the 220 seats in the Crowne Plaza ballroom were nearly full of Ulster Unionist members and conference observers. (The back row filled first.) The defeated Slovakian football team had spent the night in the hotel, and at times it felt like the UUP delegates will similarly tired and jaded. While the attendance will have pleased organisers – who followed the SDLP pattern of not streaming the conference online – and the morning’s smorgasbord of speakers were …

Why “winning the internet” is failing to win the argument on a united Ireland…

Mick Fealty on October 10, 2025, 10:00 am

| Readers 2384

blue card on top of opened book

Social media is (to quote Michelle Gildernew on Northern Ireland) a sh!thole. That nasty stuff is posted there about the presidential candidates is no surprise. It’s like rugby where the referee is tied and bound and left in the changing rooms. People focus on the brutality it helps generate from time to time (the intimidatory protests outside Naomi Long’s house, for example) but it also makes us stupider as a society. It is its basis in large language models (LLMs) …

SDLP Conference Report – seeking to build something new that values hopes over fears #SDLP25

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on October 4, 2025, 5:16 pm

| Readers 1810

Clare Hanna surrounded by family and political colleages at the conclusion of her speech at the October 2025 conference. The conference stage backdrop is a vivid red colour.

Last year’s conference witnessed the baton of leadership being passed from Colum Eastwood to Claire Hanna. A year later, the new leader was benefitting from a reinvigorated internal party machine. Hanna was less reticent and more forthright in discussing her vision for Irish unity, and was supported by Assembly colleagues who felt confident to celebrate their work in Opposition up on the hill. Executive parties have to make a show of highlighting delivery in their conference panels and speeches, sometimes …

Whatever happened to Civic Nationalism?

Terry Wright on September 18, 2025, 9:22 am

| Readers 1735

the words future is creative painted on a wall

In 2018, a group of civic nationalists penned a public letter urging Taoiseach of the day, Leo Varadkar TD, to protect the rights of Irish citizens in Northern Ireland. The letter voiced concern at the ongoing political crisis in Northern Ireland saying that it had come about because of a failure to: “both implement and defend the Good Friday and St Andrew’s agreements” the result being a denial and refusal of “equality, rights and respect towards the section of the …