Singing Happy Birthday to the Experts

Of course, the Daily Telegraph’s front page scoop that crack epidemic modeller Neil Ferguson broke lockdown rules to visit his paramour is a dead cat story designed to deflect attention from the UK having the worst COVID19 death toll in Europe. The Telegraph has form in trying to destroy Ferguson’s credibility, but that doesn’t mean this wasn’t a real front page news story, and it doesn’t mean that Ferguson shouldn’t have resigned; in fact, it’s greatly to his credit that …

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Is obesity a key factor in Covid-19 deaths?

What we know about Covid-19 increases daily. But what we don’t remains largely out of sight in the submerged part of this very menacing iceberg that keeps policy-makers awake at night. What we do know we must use wisely applying it where we can to save lives. In January as they were getting to grips with the infection China identified many of the risk factors for poorer outcomes and these have since been confirmed in other countries. Being older is …

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The problem with opening churches too early…

The Minister for Agriculture, Edwin Poots has recently called for churches across NI to reopen following a graduated easing of restrictions, citing novel methods of worship outside of the traditional mass congregation. Surely this is a fine position to take considering around 93% of the NI population identify as Christian? No, no it’s not. It is exactly this siloed approach that underwrites the nature of Stormont’s power sharing Executive and gives out of touch ministers, like Poots, a platform to …

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If the UK doesn’t change its disastrous contact tracing app strategy, Northern Ireland should align with the Irish government approach

As trials of the British government’s coronavirus contact tracing app begin this week on the Isle of Wight, serious questions have been raised about the design of the application and its potential effectiveness. There are two broad categories of contact tracing app: the centralised approach, where data from phones is sent to a central database where contact data can be analysed, or the decentralised approach, where in order to protect user privacy contact data is analysed on phones without the …

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COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Dublin’s success will pose dilemmas for both SF and Unionists:

Number-crunching the past few days’ COVID-19 statistics is bringing clearer evidence by the day that RoI seems to have definitively turned a corner in its struggle against this frightening adversary. If we define ‘peak covid’ as the date when a jurisdiction had its largest 7-day rolling average of new cases, we find that peak covid occurred on April 15th for the UK, April 18th for the RoI, and April 20th for NI. The graph shows the 7-day rolling averages since …

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View from New York – light at the end of the tunnel or a train coming the other way?

Anybody I know who has lived in New York for any length of time has remarked in recent years that we don’t have shoulder seasons anymore. One day it’s winter and the next day it’s not. Nobody wears a spring or autumn jacket like we used to; your winter coat gets stored away at the end of April and re-emerges sometime around Thanksgiving in November. Well, it certainly felt like last Saturday was the day the Weather Service pulled a …

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Changing Behaviour in a time of plague. Be careful what you wish for…

When I discovered last week that my favourite Chinese restaurant was open for take-aways and delivering locally, I telephoned but found I was out of range so I ordered to collect. Bad boy, my wife admonished, I was making an unnecessary and selfish journey and this was not allowed. Suitably censured I agreed to stay home and to satisfy my desire for spicy food I located at the back of a cupboard an out-of-date Vesta curry bought years ago possibly …

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It is well past time to get on with forming a new government in the Republic…

Interesting news over the weekend, and possibly the most important from the Republic since February’s shock election result that the Greens have decided to go into negotiation for a Programme for Government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. In the Irish Examiner Professor Gary Murphy is typically blunt in his assessment of the absurd situation the country has fallen into since then: The 70-day 2016 negotiation process is now the standard template. The Tánaiste, Simon Coveney, says he is hopeful …

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What gives you joy? It might surprise you to discover what activities are meaningful for you…

Back between the twilight zone of Christmas 2019 and New Year I was at a friends’ home for an annual open house. It’s a fixture in my not too busy social calendar because it’s daytime (I don’t do evenings) and also I always meet people who are interesting and I can have real conversations with, not just “curtain talk”; pointless chat about soft furnishings or other subjects. Fashion trends are so fleeting I don’t see the point, it’s all a …

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For a real reset, we must talk about crony capitalism and post Covid economics

There have been some fascinating pieces of high-end journalism circulating from folks I’ve not been able to read or listen to for some time: probably because of the loud din of garrulous trivia our own politics has itself hooked on for the last few years. If the local political jibber-jabber has begun to take a backseat, as we try figure the best way to tackle the disease and its repercussions, perhaps then we’ve also got a little time and a …

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Maybe Covid-19 is not as bad as we first thought, but our leaders don’t know what to do next…

One of my favourite quotes is from the screenwriter William Goldman: “Nobody knows anything…… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” I believe this quote applies to all areas of life, not just the movie business. The older you get the more you realise we are all faking it and making it up as we go along. …

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COVID-19 Spread In Both Irelands, the UK and Selected Countries: Four stories in the Republic:

We are a small island, but the story of the COVID-19 pandemic is being written differently in each county. The four graphs added to COVIDWATCH show these differing narratives. Continuous data for Northern Ireland councils were not available (when this data is available it will be displayed). One of the graphs is shown above. Methodology: New cases can vary hugely within a couple of days. These huge undulations can hide underlying trends. A 7-day rolling average will allow to some …

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The view from New York – the aftermath…

I wasn’t going to write another one of these Views from New York. It feels a little self-indulgent now when events have overtaken as they have and the whole world is now reeling from this pandemic. And what of the developing world countries that barely make the news? China, Europe, the US have been dominating the headlines for weeks but what is happening in those other parts of the globe and how horrific will it be in the favelas and …

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Addiction in a time of crisis…

Mental health is suffering as we remain in lockdown. Those with poor mental health coupled with an alcohol/drug addiction seem to have worsened over recent weeks manifest in more and more bizarre and risky behaviours and an increased need for; antidepressants, anti-psychotics and anxiolytics. It’s time to rethink how we deal with addiction associated with poor mental health because we might not be getting it right. Addiction NI, the local charity that does what it says on the tin, last …

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Northern Ireland’s mental health crisis

Mental health is a global challenge, but poor mental health is at crisis levels in Northern Ireland. That crisis is in part an ongoing impact from the Troubles, Siobhan O’Neill, professor of mental health science at Ulster University, says in the latest Holywell Trust podcast. “We’re seeing a rise in mental health problems in the Western world,” says Siobhan. “We know that around one in four or one in five people in Europe and the West have a mental health …

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Schools: Locked down, separately…

On 12th March, from the steps of the President’s Guest House in Washington, Leo Varadkar announced that schools across the Republic of Ireland would be closed to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. His statement echoed concerns that had been raised by teaching unions and parents in Northern Ireland and increased pressure on the Assembly to follow suit. On 18th March, First Minister Arlene Foster declared that NI would by closing all schools with effect from Monday, 23rd March, …

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Does Smoking Prevent Covid-19 or is it a myth?

The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie–deliberate, contrived and dishonest–but the myth–persistent, persuasive and unrealistic…… We enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. JF Kennedy 1962 There are many myths emerging as we struggle with the SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic. President Trump again covers himself in glory with his latest; suggesting intravenous disinfectant as a treatment option. Vitamin C, Zinc and Vitamin D are all appearing as disease preventors but there is little evidence …

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The Question of Taste, or lack thereof…

I remember the taste of that iced coffee as if it were only a few minutes ago yet it must be at least twenty years. We were in Africa with friends who had invited us to join them on their time share, a compound with wild animals and a swimming pool. On the way we stopped at a strange place that wasn’t a bar or a garage or a shop or anything really but it had seats and tables outside. …

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Be good to yourself. This isn’t easy for anyone, not even for me…

So we are in day eleventy Wednesday of lockdown and I’m at the stage where I need someone to text me each morning to tell me what day it is. Also I need a brass band to parade through my house to wake up the teenagers.  Although in these days of social distancing I suppose an impromptu performance in the garden would be more appropriate. Can’t say I’d be popular with the neighbours though.  In an outstanding feat of achievement …

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Public relations misfire: transparent and desperate…

On Wednesday at the national daily briefing, the UK government visibly acknowledged its anxiety over its COVID-19 response to date as talks of an Inquiry mount, just days after a Sunday Times article highlighted a series of spectacular blunders that prompted a detailed 2,000-word rebuttal. The tell…? Wheeling out the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nicholas Carter GCB, CBE, DSO, ADC. One would be forgiven for thinking it relatively benign, given that the military has been squarely involved …

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