Just a late night list of problems with the Tory-DUP deal before we see it sometime later in the week.
In summary it disturbs the careful balance of the Good Friday agreement by its very existence.
There’s the risk of huge danger to the wider unionist position if the DUP overbid. They would fare much better to cleave to the unionism of Ruth Davidson with its far wider appeal and influence.
A pact between two very different forms of unionism can offer the DUP very limited support on the nagging constituional question . Self determination is limited to both parts of Ireland. The rest of the UK is excluded although it’s clearer than ever that the Conservatives under any likely leader won’t be neutral on the question. This matters straightaway on pressing for a return to Stormont and attitudes to a border poll. Does it help the DUP’s cause if May or a successor takes one side and Corbyn ditto the other? And Dublin coming on stronger in support of nationalism, perhaps with Fianna Fail organising to rival Sinn Fein in the North?
How can a British minister broker a Stormont agreement if one side is propping up his government? In part, an uninformed question. What brokering role? People asking this have failed to notice Brokenshire compromised his role just before it might have begun by joining the DUP in complaining that legacy inquiries were focusing too much on the army. And even before the Manchester and London atrocities May was looking ahead to a post- Brexit review of the Human Rights Act and membership of the ECHR, even those these are entrenched in the GFA. Brokenback has put little effort into mediation anyway and has largely stuck to setting elastic deadlines.
The deal increases polarisation of unionists and nationalists and adds a big threat to stabilty. Can meaningful power sharing survive in this atmosphete and with Gerry Adams keeping nagging on about a border poll as the rival attraction? Prospects for the return of the Assembly have surely been weakened. It will require a completely different approach to mediation to revive them.
It could even emperil the Union it’s pledged to defend. Catholics of middle of the road and anti SF views will have a big say in its long term survival. What do they think the DUP deal says about fairness for Catholics? Is this the sort of state they are content to belong to? The alternative of a UI within the EU begins to look more and more attractive. Maybe even worth souring relations with Prods? How much worse could they get? (A lot actually).
It could end Tory-Labour bipartisanship over the Union. Tories plus DUP equals Labour plus Irish nationalism. And Labour could be back in power within a year. So was it worth it, they’ll ask – too late.
It imposes strains on the vital British – Irish relationship. Won’t Dublin feel compelled to give more active support to northern nationalism as Adams is demanding?
Does this list exaggerate the problems? I hope so.
Later. The bits of the DUP manifesto on flegs and parades etc were cynically added to draw out the vote, believing they’d never be implemented. Reports that the DUP are pressing for concessions on austerity over welfare payments such as the proposed removal of part of the triple lock and winter fuel payments for pensioners would be popular beyond Northern Ireland. Concentrating demands on pan-UK matters would modestly improve the DUP’s external reputation and even perhaps its internal one..
We haven’t seen the confidence and supply arrangement, but the transparency a deal of this kind with the Tories requires – and certainly the debate that follows- might actually help stability by ruling out a unionist flegs regime, and a legacy policy that specially favours the army. It could even advance LGBT rights as May hinted at to the redoubtable Ruth Davidson.
An outcome along the lines of an ” open Brexit” as pressed
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London