Winston Churchill is misattributed as saying that the “Americans can always be relied upon to do the right thing – after they have exhausted all other options”. Perhaps the same can be said of the British Government’s belated decision to ban the Drumcree march – no good could have come of it – and yet events were allowed to unfold which placed the continuance of good community relations, power sharing government, and, indeed, lives at risk before the Secretary of State finally acted.
We are left with the debris of the ghosts of the Troubles re-exhumed, of a host of nationalist leaders likely placed on the wrong side of the law, and the spectre of extreme sectarianism once again assuming centre stage in Northern Ireland politics. Marginal figures like Jamie Bryson and Breandán Mac Cionnaith have been given their day in the sun. Sinn Féin and the DUP will have welcomed the distraction from their non-delivery at Stormont and Jeffrey Donaldson woes.
The Orange Order can tout the fact that they always acted within the law – in stark contrast to the many illegal bonfires built from stolen pallets with which they celebrate the Twelfth. The PSNI can tout the fact that major public disorder was avoided – in stark contrast to the many riots and pogroms they have allowed to proceed unimpeded. Nationalism can celebrate a moral victory and a renewed sense of cohesion and purpose. All in all, a good day for sectarianism and division.
So who is going to pick up the pieces, and how is the damage to community relations to be undone? Perhaps the best that can be said for the outcome is that the vast majority on all sides expressed relief that the tensions were contained, and the stand-off is now over – until the next time a flashpoint is allowed to develop. But will Stormont function any better or the upcoming elections be any less polarised? Will Northern Ireland function any more effectively as a state?
Both Sinn Féin and the DUP seemed destined to lose votes at the next election – will the stand-off reverse that trend, or will more moderate parties ultimately be the beneficiaries? Ultimately it is a choice for all the voters of Northern Ireland to decide what sort of politics they want to see going forward. Is it a case of digging in or reaching out? The British government can’t escape responsibility however much they see Northern Ireland as a problem rather than an asset for the UK as a whole.
Does anyone have a plan to end this seemingly endless mayhem and dysfunction? Is it simply a case of managing difficult events rather than leading from the front? What exactly is the British Government strategy for Northern Ireland in the context of seeking to improve relations with Ireland and the EU? Is the soaring budgetary deficit and issues like Lough Neagh simply somebody else’s problem that bothers Westminster not at all?
If Britain has no “selfish strategic interest” in Northern Ireland, why is it there at all? The answer provided by the Good Friday Agreement is that it is there until the will of the people as expressed in a border poll says otherwise. But has the GFA provided merely a ceasefire rather than peace? After almost 30 years, one would have hoped for more. Drumcree provides a reminder that for some, reconciliation isn’t even on the agenda.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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