Something significant is happening in Northern Ireland, which is not making the headlines it deserves. A new survey by the University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies for the Sunday Times last month, finds that 55.2 per cent of voters would refuse to support any party that brought down Stormont’s power-sharing assembly while just 14% would. That is a 40-point gap. After years of stop-start government, boycotts and brinkmanship, the electorate clearly has had enough.
But there are some diverges. 62.5% of nationalists said they would not back a party that caused collapse, compared to just 16.3% who would. Whilst among unionists, only 20%. Most emphatic of all are the “neithers”, now roughly 30% of the electorate — of whom a mere 8.3% would tolerate collapse. Such a profound cross-community consensus on an issue that has dogged the institutions over the last ten years is a political resource that is, for now at least, being squandered.
A System Designed to Win Peace is Failing
The paradox at the heart of Stormont is one the survey throws into sharp relief. The power-sharing structures created by the Belfast Agreement were designed to force cooperation between divided communities. Yet the very mechanisms that enforce that cooperation like designation requirements, vetoes, compulsory coalition, are precisely what make the assembly so vulnerable to collapse and so difficult to govern. The assumption was lead parties would co-operate for peace, not indulge in self sabotage.
Significantly, 56.2% of respondents view Stormont structures as the best basis for governance in either their present or a reformed form — nearly twice the number (29.1%) who want substantial change or removal. There is appetite for reform across all parties, but it is clear that voters want the institutions fixed, not abandoned. The demand is straightforward: no single party should be able to hold the assembly hostage. Whether the parties can agree a solution remains moot.
Politicians Are Trailing Behind the People
Asked to name their priorities for the Assembly and Executive, respondents ranked healthcare reform first (35.4%) and the economy second (28.8%). Constitutional issues came ninth at 2% and legacy issues last at 1.3%, making them roughly twenty times less likely to be ranked than healthcare. The issues that dominate political and media commentary are almost entirely disconnected from what voters actually care about. Stormont, apparently, is just talking to itself.
This is a dilemma for both camps. When asked whether they would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow, only 35.8 per cent agreed while 49.7 per cent disagreed. Peter Shirlow is pointed on this: Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate is the lowest in the UK, its fintech, cybersecurity and advanced manufacturing sectors are growing, and the Republic’s promises sit awkwardly against the reality of significantly higher house prices and a cost-of-living crisis running deep south of the border.
Tom Collins, writing in the Irish News, argues that the north’s failures (in health, housing, infrastructure) are themselves the case for unity, and that political leaders have a duty to plan for constitutional change regardless of electoral timing. But Collins blames partition for problems that Stormont has the power to fix. Nationalism has spent decades pointing at the border instead of running the government it already has. Voters know the difference. Few in the pro-unity camp appear to be listening.
But the pro-union side faces its own reckoning. The DUP has fallen to around 19%, down from 21.3% in 2022, with significant leakage to the TUV. The Green Party is now surging, and the survey marks the non-constitutional bloc at some 18.3%. The “neither” bloc, once predominantly from Protestant backgrounds, is now 41% Catholic, 45% Protestant and 15% non-religious. This a genuinely new political constituency that neither unionism nor nationalism has a coherent strategy to reach.
What Comes Next?
The survey also reveals a society more reconciled than its politics might outwardly suggest. Three-quarters of respondents acknowledge the past suffering of communities other than their own. Nearly 79% say they have friendships across the identity divide. And some 80% agree that political parties could do more to build reconciliation. The gap between civic reality and political behaviour is wide. Whilst Northern Ireland society has quietly reconciled, its politicians have still to get the memo.
The assembly has achieved something extraordinary: politicians from opposing traditions ended an armed conflict, built a new economy, and significantly reduced communal tension. Yet nearly two-thirds of voters were unaware that around 100,000 patients had been removed from NHS waiting lists between April and October 2025, and a majority did not know that unemployment has fallen dramatically since 1998. Peace, prosperity, progress, and most voters rarely hear about any of it.
The conversation about Northern Ireland’s future has been conducted almost entirely in constitutional terms: green versus orange, border poll versus union. But voters have moved to different ground entirely. They want a health service that works, an economy that delivers, and institutions they can trust. This is more demanding version of ambition. Good governance is not the consolation prize for failing to achieve desired outcomes. For a growing number of people across the island, it is the point.
It is a good place to live, and getting better. Northern Ireland manufactures 30% of all global aircraft seating. Powerscreen, founded in Dungannon, pioneered mobile screening and now exports through a network of over 115 dealers worldwide. And despite accounting for less than 3% of the UK population, Northern Ireland produces around 8% of its total food output by volume — consistently supplying between a sixth and a fifth of UK dairy, beef, poultry and eggs.
Tairseach is the Irish for threshold: the liminal point where a decision about direction becomes unavoidable. The survey suggests Northern Ireland’s voters have already crossed it. They know what they want: a health service that works, an economy that delivers, institutions they can trust. They are not waiting for constitutional questions to be resolved before getting on with their lives. The door to a better future is open. The question is whether their politicians are ready to walk through it with them.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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