Nationalism risks its own form of “dummymander”: reading the 2021 census as a countdown to unity, much as Texas Republicans redrew their maps on demographic assumptions and lost. The Taoiseach’s new body offers a stronger path, preparing for several futures and engaging every tradition, so that consent is earned rather than assumed.
The Taoiseach’s new constitutional research body will examine three futures for the island: a unitary state, a devolved united Ireland and the status quo. Rather than staking everything on a border poll that may never come, it builds an evidence base, and a set of tools for future taoisigh, that will be useful whatever happens.
At 105, partition is unlikely to end on a 50%-plus-one border poll. Nationalism’s vote has stalled at 40% while voters drift to “neither”. The path forward runs through governing Northern Ireland well, not waiting it out, and Micheál Martin’s Bodenstown speech shows what that looks like.
The Orange Order’s right to walk the Garvaghy Road was upheld and loyalism stayed calm, but by following a dissident lead, mainstream nationalism hardened tribal lines and alienated the uncommitted voters it needs to reach 50%.
France’s climate convention implemented 58% of its proposals and reached 78% public awareness, proof a citizens’ assembly can work when a state gives it real authority and resourcing. Sinn Féin’s defeated unity bill had neither, and a wider, patient conversation would serve the question better than a set-piece assembly ever could.
During a week dominated by Jeffrey Donaldson’s conviction, a quieter story slipped past: the Irish Government’s Shared Island Initiative passed €1 billion in commitments to 2030. From a Stormont cricket ground to a sub-two-hour Belfast–Dublin train, it revives a pragmatism that runs from Seán Lemass straight to Micheál Martin: cooperation without precondition, benefit without constitutional strings. The question now is whether Northern ministers will become active partners or passive recipients.
A “gold standard” poll shows nationalism closing on the union. Reverse the question, keeping the format identical, and unionism’s lead jumps from 6 points to 33. The same biases drive both results. Here’s how question framing quietly sets the political weather in Northern Ireland, and a simple test to level the field.
Fine Gael has chosen Garret FitzGerald’s centenary to launch a blueprint for Irish unity. But preparation is not persuasion — and the unaligned middle who will actually decide remain unmoved by border-poll rhetoric.
A new survey reveals that 55 per cent of Northern Irish voters would refuse to back any party that collapses Stormont — and that support for institutional reform now cuts across the unionist-nationalist divide. But as public opinion shifts, are the politicians listening?
The border poll arithmetic is simple: nationalism cannot win it alone. The votes needed sit with people who want competent government, not constitutional drama. So why, after twenty-five years in power, is there so little evidence of the former and so much of the latter?
After thirty years of post-Agreement politics, support for a united Ireland hasn’t moved. The border poll debate needs a reality check — and only one party has worked out what a credible long-term strategy actually looks like.
Does demographic change make Irish unity inevitable? Responding to claims that unionism is fading into irrelevance, Lorna Smyth argues that constitutional change requires more than slogans and census data—it requires practical answers on healthcare, the economy, and identity that have yet to be provided.
While Northern Republicanism remains preoccupied with the “semiotics” of defiance and historical score-settling, the dream of a 32-county state is stalling and the divergences between North and South are widening. If the Good Friday Agreement was meant to be a bridge, why has it been turned into a trench? Mick argues it’s time to trade 19th-century tactics for 21st-century statecraft.
As calls for Unionist unity and electoral pacts resurface ahead of the 2026 elections, Terry argues that political unionism is trapped in a “mental bloc.” The movement is failing to engage a new generation of pro-union voters who value cultural hybridity over old denominational structures. Is unionist re-alignment a path to renewal, or merely the final throes of a tired ritual?
By Professor John Garry, Queen’s University Belfast. Professor Brendan O’Leary, University of Pennsylvania. Dr Jamie Pow, Queen’s University Belfast & Dr Dawn Walsh, University College Dublin. Professor Coulter has written a number of pieces (here and here) on Slugger O’Toole that are critical of the ARINS/Irish Times surveys. These criticisms are based on false premises and are wrong. Comparison with other academic surveys We will shortly address Professor Coulter’s unfounded methodological criticisms, but let us first confirm the substance of …
A couple of weeks back I wrote about whether or not the time had come for Alliance to adopt a constitutional position (TL;DR – it hasn’t). As is typical of articles that touch on the constitutional issue, there were quite a few comments, most of which spectacularly avoided the point and tended to rehash boring talking points and clichés from the 1970s. But there were several fair remarks which merit further discussion, so I thought I’d start with the most …
Some weeks ago I noted with interest the outcome of the University of Liverpool survey into the makeup of the Alliance Party membership base and their views on constitutional matters, finding that a larger number of members believe that Irish unity should occur in the future. The title of this piece refers to an old cliché, which I’ve heard since 1994, that the party are a bunch of fence-sitters. More recently I’ve been hearing “constitutional change is coming and Alliance …
Last week I wrote an article suggesting that in the event of a united Ireland, the British government would propose that the future Irish government assume responsibility for paying the former Northern Ireland state pensions, on the basis that it would already be receiving the benefit of historic pension contributions that were invested in the form of public spending there. The article noted that this was the proposed arrangement in the event of Scottish independence (see page 139). This drew …
I am with Chris in being sceptical about the latest polling on the unity question. I don’t know a single person who genuinely believes the pro-Unity vote would be less than 30% in a Border Poll, which suggests the survey lacks credibility and is inappropriately weighted like the NI Life & Times. — Chris Donnelly (@chrisadonnelly) November 4, 2021 We can argue about the merits of the survey and its methodology. But fundamentally the only poll that matters is the …
Sinn Fein President, Mary Lou McDonald addressed her party in Dublin this evening. The Opposition Leader free from the 2019 electoral setbacks and is now a leader who could look with optimism about where the party stands in the polls and make a bid for the position of Taoiseach. The party is pitching itself as the main vehicle for change, but falls short of ruling out a potential coalition with her main rivals. For the talk about Sinn Fein being …
