At a recent Assembly Committee Sinn Féin’s Pat Sheehan, asked ‘if one of the major parties were to walk — if they were to leave the Executive and the Assembly — could the institutions survive with any credibility?’ Soon after Alison Morris summed that Stormont cannot work despite valid attempts. That conclusion is part-true given disputes over legacy and language. But does that mean nothing is working?
A fundamental problem with our political, media and commentor class is the inability to understand that positive and negative can co-exist. During the past two weeks there was positive news that was largely obscured. The usual government tactic is to bury bad news whereas in NI the common method is to conceal positively charged and confirmed outcomes. As to why is both unknown and unacceptable.
As some ruminated upon latest crises the UUP’s Mike Nesbitt evidenced that in a 6-month period the health service had seen, diagnosed, or treated more than 100,000 red flag or time-critical patients. The Health Czar Mark Taylor summed that we could be looking at a figure of approximately 226,000 patients being attended to as he sought ways to ensure affective access. Newton Emerson offered examples of how to further transform waiting lists but wondered, why such a transformative approach was ‘not even being discussed’. The why is indicative of crisis fixation over meaningful and evidenced public discourse.
At An Roinn Geilleagair (economy) monthly bulletins are littered with positively confirmed outcomes. Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate is lower that GB, Ireland and the EU. In the past year monthly median pay increased by +8.8% significantly outpacing the UK rate (+4.8%) and NI, in real terms, had the second largest cumulative average annual growth rate of any UK region. Between 2002 and 2024 the median wage rose by 56%. The highest rise in UK. One would guess that a negligible share of the electorate knows these facts.
Too much of that economic success sits east of the Bann. I say that in recognition that there is no silver lining that does not have a cloud, but we need a proper debate about public discourse, how transformative affects are achieved and how that success is driven. Talking up success is not fealty to pro-unionism it is the very essence of what the Good Friday Agreement was meant to deliver around better outcomes.
Sinn Féin’s ambition to govern the 26 needs to be evidenced by their ability to deliver beyond wicked societal issues. As their southern manifestos testify the 26 is replete with growing waiting lists, evidenced for example, by trolleywtach.ie who have shown that between 2004 and 2024 the numbers attending A and E who waited on a trolley or for a bed grew from around 10k[i] to 122k[ii], rising homelessness and a costs of living crisis that drives the depth of southern ills.
Some southern electors will not risk voting for a party that has neither governed nor proven it can. Devolution offers the opportunity for Sinn Fein to do so but at times they have wasted that opportunity. If they were to countenance walking away, they would undermine their opportunity to prove they have the vision, capacity and skill, to solve the type of social crises that lie south of the border. Unionism’s ability to keep within the UK is based upon further downward movement on waiting lists, delivering more investment in high value sectors, and promoting cultural parity of esteem.
For both the issue is not simply about finance its about expertise, proficiency and know-how and trusting others, beyond the Sinn Féin and DUP folds, to provide strategies. Ironically these hapless bedfellows can only achieve their variant constitutional goals by making Northern Ireland work. Professor Harvey of Ireland’s Future made a similar point at a recent UCD debate in which he praised positive economic change in NI as a boon to his constitutional cause.
A change in thinking, and a position adopted because of the facts outlined above. Harvey’s point follows not only robust evidence but his ability to adapt to it. But elsewhere the political and commentariat class, do not show that adaptability, remaining fixated by depressingly narrow understandings especially of the electorate.
The electorate has become less traditional in its beliefs as social binaries erode. Most pro-union electors now support marriage equality and choice, but they are not flocking to Sinn Féin who share those beliefs. Those who want unity are less supportive when questioned on potential health charges, taxes or when they consider the difference in housing costs between NI and the 26. The majority of each are socially liberal, increasingly middle class, dependent upon quality public services and allied by a desire for better outcomes. We are no longer in the rudimentary twofold politics of the past but in a place in which most want Assembly reform and are strongly unified in opposition to the Assembly collapsing. Neither are fools and are more sophisticated in their thinking than assumed. In any survey, electors posit health, economy and education as priorities not the past or identity issues.
Local politicians can remain hostages to the past but increasingly some voters are holding them hostage regarding ability and delivery. That is part of the reason why the pro-unity vote is stuck and the pro-union declining. Therefore, the answer to Sheehan’s credibility question is simple – if a party walks away, they will become less credible to every shade of political identity. A never imagined but increasing less peculiar form of electoral unity in which electors view credibility around trust irrespective of constitutional position.
[i] https://www.inmo.ie/News-Campaigns/Trolley-Watch/
[ii] https://www.inmo.ie/News-Campaigns/Trolley-Watch/
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