Peter Shirlow

Is a United Ireland inevitable, or is the status quo strengthening? This final installment of our University of Liverpool survey series tackles the Border Poll head-on. While support for unity has risen since 2017, recent data reveals a slight decline and a sobering demographic shift: a shrinking youth electorate. With 59.4% of decided voters favoring the UK, we explore why the “50+1” threshold remains a significant, and perhaps growing, challenge for pro-unity campaigners. We have been testing the border polls …

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Part two of Professor Peter Shirlow‘s survey analysis dives into the stark challenges facing Northern Ireland’s political blocs. Our data reveals zero growth in the pro-unity vote share since 1998, despite demographic shifts, and significant internal flux within pro-unionism. Both major constitutional camps show an over-reliance on traditional voters and a lack of strategy to attract younger, policy-focused, and non-aligned electors. We explore the ‘problematic’ findings—from voter leakage to the constitutional commitment gap—shaping the path to 2027. In this second …

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In part one of this detailed analysis from Professor Peter Shirlow, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, captures critical in-time attitudes, revealing a halting decline in the pro-union vote and a stalled pro-unity share. Critically, he examines the rise of non-constitutional parties and voter resistance to collapsing the Assembly. The data suggests Northern Ireland’s electorate is far from predictable. Methodology The current survey is based on a sample of 1534 Northern Ireland electors aged …

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At a recent Assembly Committee Sinn Féin’s Pat Sheehan, asked ‘if one of the major parties were to walk — if they were to leave the Executive and the Assembly — could the institutions survive with any credibility?’ Soon after Alison Morris summed  that Stormont cannot work despite valid attempts. That conclusion is part-true given disputes over legacy and language. But does that mean nothing is working? A fundamental problem with our political, media and commentor class is the inability …

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